After 18 weeks of the regular season, it’s time for the win-or-go-home drama of the NFL playoffs.
The wild-card round kicks off this weekend with six games. The NFC (Detroit Lions) and AFC (Kansas City Chiefs) leaders both have byes while the No. 2 through 7 seeds begin what they hope are paths to the Super Bowl.
The AFC playoff field also features the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, L.A. Chargers and Denver Broncos. The NFC field includes the Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers.
Here are the leading storylines to follow starting Saturday.
Two of the league’s bright young stars in Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud face off at NRG Stadium. Herbert’s Chargers return to the playoffs after missing out last season and do so riding a three-game win streak. Stroud and the Texans make their second straight postseason appearance after winning back-to-back AFC South titles despite an up-and-down 2024 campaign. Houston snapped a two-game losing streak with a win in the regular-season finale and hopes to use that as a springboard for success this postseason. But are the Chargers riding the bigger wave of momentum?
Herbert (0-1 in the playoffs for his career) and Stroud (1-1 in the postseason) will command plenty of attention, and rightfully so. A victory on Saturday, however, could come down to which defense delivers the more disruptive performance.
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Herbert this season passed for 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns and a career-low three interceptions, the least among full-time starters. However, he will face a Texans defense that holds foes to just 201.0 yards per game and a passer rating of 83.7 and has 19 interceptions (second-most in the NFL). Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and safety Calen Bullock have five picks apiece. Houston also ranks among the leaders in sacks (49). The Chargers pride themselves on balance, but the Texans will do their best to get after Herbert and keep him from finding a rhythm with receivers Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.
Stroud faces a similar challenge, however. Although his effectiveness has declined slightly compared to last season (4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions in 2023 versus 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2024), Stroud remains the catalyst for Houston’s offensive success. He’ll go up against a Chargers defense that has held teams to a league-low 17.7 points per game and to a success rate of 35.7 on third downs (fifth-lowest). Stroud is playing without his top two targets, both out for the season with injuries, and behind a shaky offensive line. He was sacked 52 times, second-most in the league, during the regular season. Look for the Chargers to try to stifle running back Joe Mixon in hopes of getting Stroud into third-and-long situations, where they love to send pressure with linebackers Tuli Tuipulotu, Bud Dupree, Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack leading the way.
AFC North rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore meet for the third time this season and for the second time in the last four weeks. The Ravens and Steelers spent much of the season battling for the division lead. In Week 11, the Steelers pulled off an 18-16 win over the visiting Ravens. But in Week 16, Baltimore avenged that loss with an authoritative 34-17 victory. Baltimore went on to win the division and a first-round home playoff game.
Baltimore is red-hot, having won its last four games. It topped 30 points in each of those victories while holding opponents to just 10.75 points per game and forcing six turnovers.
The last time Baltimore faced Pittsburgh, Lamar Jackson torched the Steelers for three touchdown passes, Derrick Henry ran for 162 yards on 24 carries and Zay Flowers had five catches for 100 yards. Flowers will miss this game with a knee injury, but the Steelers still will have their hands full with Jackson, Henry and Mark Andrews leading the way. The Steelers have plenty of their own problems to worry about as well.
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While Baltimore enters the postseason on a hot streak, the Steelers have gone cold, losing four straight and five of their last seven. Turnovers have crippled the Steelers of late. After consistently winning the turnover battle for the first three-fourths of the season, the Steelers have struggled to take care of the ball, turning it over six times in their last four games. A once-punishing defense also has struggled, giving up 27.25 points per game during this slide. The Steelers need Russell Wilson to regain the effectiveness he delivered while winning four straight and six out of seven as his team battled for the divisional lead. Last week, Wilson struggled, completing just 54.8 percent of his passes for 148 yards and a touchdown and he wilted even further with the game on the line as the Steelers lost to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh can’t afford another feeble performance from the quarterback or its defense if it expects to top the electrifying Ravens.
No one expected the Broncos to reach the playoffs behind a rookie quarterback and retooling offense. But Bo Nix learned Sean Payton’s system quickly and has exceeded expectations. Easing pressure on the young quarterback is a defense that is among the league’s stingiest in yards (317.1) and points (18.3) allowed. Denver also leads the NFL with 63 sacks and has a top shutdown corner in Pat Surtain II.
That Broncos defense must deliver in a big way this week because it’s facing MVP candidate Josh Allen, who does it all. Despite losing his top targets from a year ago, Allen has put the Bills on his back and carried them right back to elite standing in the AFC. Allen has passed for 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions and rushed for another 12 touchdowns. James Cook did rush for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns (tied for the league lead), and the Bills do have a diverse, although not dominant, collection of pass-catchers. But Allen is the locomotive, and everything rides on him.
The Broncos’ defensive front, led by interior lineman Zach Allen (8 1/2 sacks) and edge rushers Nik Bonitto (13 1/2) and Jonathon Cooper (10 1/2) will do their best to harass Allen, but he’s been sacked only 14 times all season. If Denver can disrupt Allen — and that’s a big if — the Broncos, despite being 9-point underdogs, could make this game interesting.
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And so they meet again. Nineteen weeks after they kicked off the season against one another in Brazil, the Eagles and Packers reunite in the City of Brotherly Love.
The Eagles enter this game having won two straight despite playing without starting quarterback Jalen Hurts, who sustained a concussion in Week 16 but cleared concussion protocol Friday. It’ll be interesting to see if he exhibits any rust from the layoff. The Packers also are closely monitoring the health of their quarterback Jordan Love, who is nursing an injured elbow on his throwing arm.
Look for both teams to lean heavily on their running backs to help their offense settle into a rhythm. Prized offseason acquisitions Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs spearheaded rushing attacks that were among the best in the league. Barkley led the NFL with 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Eagles, whose rushing offense ranked second in the NFL. Jacobs rushed for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns for the Packers, who ranked fifth in team rushing.
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Jacobs’ production will prove crucial even with a healthy Love because the Packers’ passing attack lost wide receiver Christian Watson to a knee injury last week. Otherwise, the Packers will need a big game from Jayden Reed, who leads the team with 55 catches for 857 yards and six touchdowns but had several quiet outings down the stretch of the season.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have no shortage of pass-catching options with A.J. Brown (1,079 yards, seven touchdowns) and DeVonta Smith (833 yards, eight touchdowns) leading the way. Although each team boasts talented secondaries, Reed and Brown did have big outings in Week 1. Reed had four catches for 138 yards and a touchdown while Brown recorded five catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles’ secondary has improved significantly since then, however, with rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean evolving into some of the best cover men in the league despite their youth.
In another rematch from the Week 1 slate, the surprising Commanders travel to take on the resilient Buccaneers. It’s Washington’s first playoff game since the 2020 season, and the Bucs’ fifth consecutive trip to the postseason.
These teams have taken rather different paths to this point. After thumping Washington 37-20 in Week 1 and then stunning the Detroit Lions 20-16 in Week 2, the Buccaneers had an up-and-down second quarter of the season and then lost four straight while hit hard by injuries. But Todd Bowles’ team kept fighting and won four straight and six of their seven games to four-peat as NFC South champions. Baker Mayfield led the way with his career-high 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns in his second season with the team. The Buccaneers entered the season determined to avenge a painful loss to Detroit in last year’s divisional round, and that remains a motivating factor.
Washington, meanwhile, seemed destined for growing pains with a new general manager, new head coach, new quarterback and developing players all over the roster. But rookie Jayden Daniels has dazzled and seems like a lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year while leading an offense that ranks fourth in scoring (28.5 points per game). Meanwhile, Dan Quinn’s patchwork defense gradually improved as the season progressed. Washington closed with five straight wins, the last four decided by six points or less. Can the Commanders neutralize Mayfield and Buccaneers offense that averages 29.5 points per contest?
Perhaps the biggest determining factor is whether Washington can contain Mike Evans. In the teams’ first meeting, Evans caught five of six targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns. Washington has since acquired Evans’ old rival from New Orleans, Marshon Lattimore, and he is set to play Sunday after missing two games with a hamstring strain.
The Vikings close the wild-card round Monday against the Rams in a game that was moved from Los Angeles to Glendale, Ariz., because of the California wildfires.
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Minnesota hopes to rebound from a disappointing showing against Detroit last week, when it lost to the Lions, dropped to the fifth seed and now must play a Rams team that overcame early injuries to win nine of its last 12 games to capture the NFC West title.
One of those early wins during the turnaround came against the Vikings at SoFi Stadium. In that Week 8 showdown, Matthew Stafford had four passing touchdowns to lead the Rams to a 30-20 victory. That loss to the Rams evidently inspired the Vikings, because they won nine straight, losing only just last week to Detroit.
There’s a good amount of familiarity between these teams. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell served as the Rams’ offensive coordinator in 2020 and 2021, winning the Super Bowl in his final season there. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores helped direct the New England defense that stifled the Rams in Super Bowl 53, which the Patriots won 13-3.
The Vikings and Rams have both grown considerably since their midseason meeting. The Rams have gotten healthy on offense while young players on defense have grown into their roles. Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold delivered an MVP-caliber regular season, helping his team to its highest win total (14) since 1998. Darnold will find himself under a good deal of scrutiny this week, however. He had one of his worst games of the season last week against the Lions, completing just 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards and no touchdowns. The Vikings will need him to rebound in another high-pressure situation so they can potentially get another crack at the Lions while continuing their quest for a Super Bowl appearance.
(Photo of Derrick Henry and Isaiahh Loudermilk: Rob Carr / Getty Images)
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