We did it — a perfect 5-0 ATS week. Some people are afraid of big spreads, but I had no doubt the Detroit Lions would cover 12 points against the Tennessee Titans, or that the Denver Broncos would win by double digits over the Carolina Panthers. The other pick I loved was taking Jameis Winston to cover nine points against the Baltimore Ravens. Not only did he cover, but defeated Lamar Jackson straight up. 

What did I do with my winnings? Nothing crazy. I went to a karaoke bar and sang “Lips of an Angel” so eloquently I’m flirting with a damn record deal. Follow the picks while you can. If you haven’t yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can make money, too. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Top five picks ATS record: 20-19-1
Overall ATS record: 52-68-3
Straight up record: 74-49

Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)

Were you surprised to see the 2-6 Jets favored in this matchup? Don’t be, because Aaron Rodgers has found his secret weapon. New York has tried many things to turn this season around: Firing head coach Robert Saleh, demoting Nathaniel Hackett and trading for Davante Adams. Those haven’t led to wins, but Rodgers has a new drink that has him feeling good: Cayenne pepper and water. 

Jokes aside, it’s do or die for the Jets here in Week 9. They are 2-6, and at home on a short week. New York hosts a shorthanded Texans squad that is down their top two wideouts in Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Plus, C.J. Stroud may have a legitimate problem on the road, a subject I dissected last week. 

Most fans would probably pick the Texans in this game straight up, but I disagree. This is a spot for the Jets to steal a win. 

The pick: Jets -1.5
Projected score: Jets 20-17

Can Aaron Rodgers go Over 1.5 passing TDs? Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Panthers aren’t very good. Historically bad. They have been outscored by 18.4 points per game, and allow 33.9 points per game this season. Both rank in the bottom five for any team through eight games since 1970. Carolina has already announced quarterback Bryce Young will get the start over Andy Dalton again, so he has a chance to avenge the 47-10 loss he suffered to New Orleans in the season opener. If Spencer Rattler were starting, maybe this would be an interesting game. But Derek Carr is expected to return to the lineup.

The Panthers are 1-7 ATS this year, with the lone cover coming in Dalton’s first start vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. Why should we expect the Panthers to cover the spread here with Carr back under center? Do you realize the 1-7 Carolina Panthers haven’t lost a single game by single digits this entire season? They’re all blowouts. 

The pick: Saints -7.5
Projected score: Saints 28-16

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Unsurprisingly, Winston sparked the Browns offense. He had eight completions of 15+ air yards vs. the Ravens. Deshaun Watson had just nine such completions all season. Last week, the Browns set season highs in points (29) and total yards (401). It’s true that Winston threw probably five passes that should have been intercepted, but you’ll get a couple of those with a gunslinger.

The Browns defense needs to keep J.K. Dobbins in check and make sure Ladd McConkey doesn’t build on his 111-yard, two-touchdown performance. But this is a bet on the Browns building on the energy created last week. This squad has been CRAVING any kind of good vibes all year, and they finally got it. Decent value at plus money. 

The pick: Browns +1.5
Projected score: Browns 24-20

Winston to throw an INT is currently -165. Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model revealed its Week 9 NFL score predictions. To check out every exact score prediction for the upcoming games, including what is expected to be a tight Chargers-Browns bout, click here.

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

Here, we have a rejuvenated team coming off extended rest following a big-time upset victory facing a team that laid an egg in front of their home fans just a week ago. The Seahawks scored their fewest points (10) and suffered their largest loss (21 points) of the season vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Seattle is flailing having gone 1-4 SU and ATS over its past five games. 

The Rams are just a different team when Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are all in the lineup, and the stats show that. L.A. is 7-3 with that “big four,” and 6-8 in all other games. Last week they faced Brian Flores’ aggressive defense, and came out on top in decisive fashion, in my opinion. The Rams keep their momentum rolling in Week 9.

The pick: Rams -1.5
Projected score: Rams 27-22

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN and fubo, try for free)

I’ll keep it short. We have the best team in the NFL taking on a squad potentially down their top two receivers. The Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight prime-time games, while the Chiefs are 3-0 ATS in prime-time games this season. If I had to pick one home-field advantage, it’s Kansas City. Keep an eye on DeAndre Hopkins props.

The pick: Chiefs -9
Projected score: 24-14

Other Week 9 picks