That sound you hear is the metal jaws of the garbage truck scraping the bottom of the bin. Quarterbacks Desmond Ridder, Bailey Zappe and C.J. Beathard were all picked up by teams the last few days.

This after Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Tim Boyle saw action in a game last Sunday. They were both terrible (and cost us a winning week). Cleveland Browns fans were booing Deshaun Watson when he was carted off the field — for many reasons we won’t try to analyze — and they felt bad about it afterward. By the time Thompson-Robinson threw his second pass.

As one longtime NFL executive joked on Tuesday, there aren’t 32 good/solid/decent NFL quarterbacks on the planet. We got to 26 on our quick count, and yeah we included Derek Carr, everyone’s favorite punching bag, and Bo Nix, who can’t really throw but the Broncos are 4-3 somehow.

Jameis Winston is on the list, and he starts for the Browns this week.

I will also say this & have believed it for years @Jaboowins is one to the 32 BEST QBs in the world!!! Yes, has to improve his decision making at times BUT based on the quality of good reads and throws he makes in a given game, there’s NO DOUBT in my mind when u look around NFL!

— Kurt Warner (@kurt13warner) October 22, 2024

If Winston came in right away last week, the Browns would’ve easily covered the spread against the Cincinnati Bengals. That was a bad loss for us, as well as Boyle and the Miami Dolphins against the Indianapolis Colts and the Green Bay Packers only winning by two points when they were favored by 2.5. We wasted a best-bet pick on the San Francisco 49ers when no one knew Deebo Samuel Sr. was sick until a half-hour before kickoff. As Fox broadcaster Tom Brady said, Samuel was a huge part of the 49ers’ game plan against the Kansas City Chiefs.

As we’ve always said — and are proving — picking NFL games is hard. There may not be 32 guys on the planet who can do it well.

Last week’s record: 7-8 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets.

Season record: 34-57-2 against the spread, 9-19-2 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

You could tie Matthew Stafford’s drop in production (his EPA the last three weeks is -14.5, 26th in the league) to the absence of receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but he is also being pressured more. His time to throw has dropped from 3.02 seconds (eighth) to 2.74 (29th) in the last three weeks. (You see the margin of error we’re asking these special 32 athletes to deal with?) Luckily, he gets Kupp back this week, and he will be a great safety valve against all the Vikings blitzes. Stafford is great against blitzes anyway. Meanwhile, don’t look now, but there has been some much-anticipated slippage with Sam Darnold. His EPA is down from 2.5 in the first three weeks (12th in the league) to -12.9 (25th) in the last three weeks. And Rams pass rusher Jared Verse is due for some correction. The rookie ranks third in the league in pressure percentage at 20.9 percent with 27 pressures on 129 pass rush snaps. But among defenders with at least 15 pressures, he ranks 63rd (among 67 qualified) in sacks per pressure percentage at 3.7 percent with only one sack. The Vikings might exhale after their first loss and the Rams keep it close in an ugly one.

The pick: Rams

The Browns became the first team to have three different players have 10-plus pass attempts in a game since 2008. (Impress your friends by telling them it was the Chiefs’ Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard and Tyler Thigpen.) They have lost five straight and get to face a red-hot Ravens team. We all know Lamar Jackson is one of the most talented runners in the history of the game, but he has taken a huge lead in the MVP race thanks to his arm. His completion percentage is up 5 percent from the first three weeks (65.6 percent to 70.4, fifth in the league) and more importantly, his third-down passing conversion percentage is up from 30.4 percent (20th) to 50 percent (third) the last three weeks. Luckily, for those sickos considering taking the Browns and the points, Cleveland’s defense ranks No. 1 in the league in “havoc” rate at 22.0 percent on rush and pass plays. (The percentage of plays with a tackle for a loss, forced fumble, interception, pass breakup or sack.) And Winston will let it fly against a Ravens defense that ranks 27th in EPA per play (-0.08) and 28th in third down percentage (47.8 percent.)

The pick: Browns

GO DEEPER

Six NFL trades we’d like to see: Maxx Crosby to Lions, Nick Chubb to Cowboys

The Lions might be in for a letdown after a big win over the Vikings, but Jared Goff may be too hot for a letdown. And the Titans secondary is still very beat up. Tennessee ranks 28th in sacks (10.0), 31st in pressure percentage (25.5) and QB hits (21) and 32nd in pressures (49). Not to mention that Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs just took over as the EPA per carry king at 0.22. Can the Titans keep pace? Nah, as it turns out Mason Rudolph isn’t really much of an upgrade over Will Levis. And the Lions have turned up the heat without injured pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson. They already blitzed a lot at 21.8 percent (sixth-most) before last Sunday. They ramped it up and blitzed Darnold on 38.5 percent of his dropbacks — the third most of any team in a single game this season. That’s how they got three of their four sacks. The way we’re going, the Titans probably score with a minute left to lose by 10, but we’re not scared. Actually … we are. We are going to pull a George Costanza and go with the opposite of what we think.

The pick: Titans 

Anthony Richardson gave the Texans some issues with his legs and deep throws when the Colts faced them in the opener. (Christine Tannous / IndyStar / USA Today Network)

Guess who has the best against-the-spread record in the league? I will give you a couple of hints. Their quarterback completed 41.7 percent of his passes last week, and the defense ranks 30th in quarterback pressures at 67. Yes, it’s the Colts at 6-1 (they’re 4-3 overall) as the horseshoe is lucky. Anthony Richardson, who was outplayed by backup Joe Flacco in the two games he missed, had success against the Texans in the opener when was able to beat them with his legs and deep throws. The Colts may also get a boost from the possible return of injured running back Jonathan Taylor, though the Texans have a strong run defense. Houston’s offense, meanwhile, was scuffling a little even before the loss of top receiver Nico Collins. Stefon Diggs is no longer a No. 1 guy — the Bills were right. The Texans lean on RB Joe Mixon a lot, maybe too much as they are very predictable to begin games. The only reason Houston was up 10-0 last week (and lost) was Jordan Love threw two interceptions. Take the points.

The pick: Colts

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars were a lock last week, staying in London for a second straight game, but they now travel back to Jacksonville. And the Packers defense is much better than the “soft” Patriots. I am a little worried about the Packers coming in flat, as they have won three in a row and have a huge game against the Lions on deck. And the Jaguars are pretty solid against the run. But their pass defense is not good, and the Packers just have too many receivers for Love to pick from. Especially Jayden Reed, who leads the NFL in separation, averaging 4.45 yards of space when the ball arrives, and has caught all four targets in tight windows (less than 1 yard of separation). So, congrats to Doug Pederson for not getting fired on the flight back from London, and hopefully he and his family enjoyed some gator tail at one of Jacksonville’s fine dining establishments. Because the Jaguars still stink and he is not long for this job.

The pick: Packers 

GO DEEPER

Tua Tagovailoa is returning from another concussion — it brings up an uncomfortable feeling

Tua Tagovailoa is trying to play after coming back from his latest concussion, and we will have to see how this week of practice goes for him. The wise guys opened the Dolphins as a 3.5-point favorite, which translates to “we have no idea — you guys figure it out and good luck.” One player who is thrilled about Tagovailoa returning is Tyreek Hill. The All-Pro receiver ranks 56th (among 60 qualified WRs) in EPA per reception with a 0.6 rate and 55th in EPA per target with a -0.12 mark.  The Dolphins should also be able to run the ball against the Cardinals’ 24th-ranked run defense. The other problem with picking this game is Kyler Murray. He is a game-wrecker when he runs, but he doesn’t always want to do that. He can get hot throwing the ball, but he also ranks 33rd in third down passing conversion percentage the last three weeks, at 17.4 percent. And he has absolutely no chemistry with rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals are 3-4 (4-3 against the spread) and it’s a miracle I got them right last week against the Chargers.

The pick: Dolphins 

GO DEEPER

Drake Maye settles in, Jared Goff carves up the blitz, more Week 7 thoughts: Quick Outs

Aaron Rodgers didn’t blame the latest loss on Mike Williams. He said something about the players listening to the media too much and then something about they need to have more fun. Oh yeah, and it might help if he was more accurate. Rodgers is only completing 58.8 percent of his passes the last three weeks, 31st in the league and down from 67.4 percent the first three weeks. And he’s got plenty of time to throw, as the Jets possess three offensive linemen ranking in the top 19 in pressure percentage: John Simpson (2.1 percent, eighth), Alijah Vera-Tucker (2.2 percent, 12th) and Joe Tippmann (2.8 percent, 19th). The Patriots, meanwhile, were called “soft” by coach Jared Mayo, who later clarified that they weren’t soft, but they were playing soft. Thanks, coach. The Jets dominated the Patriots, 24-3, a month ago, and I don’t really think it matters how the Patriots players respond to Mayo or how much better Drake Maye is than Jacoby Brissett. Breece Hall should have a big day against a bad Patriots defense, and it doesn’t really matter how well Rodgers plays. As long as he is not really bad …

The pick: Jets 

Jalen McMillan could be a fantasy sleeper with the Buccaneers’ injury issues at receiver. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images)

I don’t know if you were wondering what ever happened to that ol’ Giants receiver with the cool name. Well, Sterling Shepard is back, baby, after the Buccaneers lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in that Monday night loss to the Ravens. (Jalen McMillan may actually be the guy to get fantasy-wise, you’re welcome.) The Buccaneers have a short week, but here is some under-the-radar stuff that may also prove beneficial: they all of a sudden have a pretty swift three-headed RB monster in Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. And Cade Otton is a pretty good tight end. Just something to consider when everyone is betting on the Falcons because Kirk Cousins threw for 500 yards against the Buccaneers three weeks ago. Never mind that the Falcons have some holes on defense and just got trounced by the Seahawks. Give me the home underdog.

The pick: Buccaneers 

The Bengals should have won four straight, if not for a collapse against the Ravens, as they back away from the plank and are now 3-4. But they haven’t looked all that great outside of Joe Burrow and the passing game. The defense looks a little better, but they don’t match up well against either Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. And they don’t ever make the big play. Cincinnati’s defense ranks 30th in “havoc” rate on rush and pass plays at 13.8 percent. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, but I am not too worried about the Eagles’ players getting a big head just because they blew out the Giants. Barkley has two of the top seven EPA per carry outings of the season — 0.47 rate last week and a 0.44 rate against the Saints — and he might very well make it three here.

The pick: Eagles 

Remember how everyone thought Carr was in trouble when he was sidelined with the bad oblique because Rattler wouldn’t give him his job back? Fun times. While the Saints do have a lot of injuries at receiver, Rattler looks small and slow with a mediocre arm, and his -4.01 EPA in his two starts ranks 35th in the NFL over that span. Someone owes the bypassed Jake Haener an apology. It won’t matter who the QB is if tackles Taliese Fuaga and Trevor Penning don’t rebound from a brutal showing against the Broncos. Penning (16.7 percent) and Fuaga (14.6) yielded the fifth- and seventh-worst pressure percentages of any linemen, and Fuaga allowed a league-high three sacks. The Saints are also hurting defensively, with injuries in the secondary and some soft play against the run. The Chargers’ Justin Herbert should take advantage, as he threw for 349 yards last week despite some brutal drops from his no-name receivers. And if not, the Chargers defense will take care of business — even if Carr rushes back to play. It ranks first in defensive points allowed per game (13.8) and EPA per rush (0.23).

The pick: Chargers 

Amari Cooper only ran 12 routes in his debut for the Bills debut — and he needed teammate Keon Coleman to tell him where to go on the touchdown catch — but he had four catches on five targets for a 1.5 EPA per reception rate (13th among WRs). He might be the biggest receiver acquisition of the season, as he will open up things for the other receivers and tight end Dalton Kincaid while he gets more comfortable in the system. The Seahawks were our favorite season-total bet at 7.5 and they are well on their way, but that defense and QB Geno Smith tend to come up short against very good teams. They gave up 78 points to the Lions and 49ers, and now Smith will likely be without injured tank DK Metcalf. The Seahawks lose their third straight at home.

The pick: Bills 

GO DEEPER

The 1983 NFL QB class is unrivaled, but watch out for Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams

We may not get the Caleb Williams–Jayden Daniels matchup we deserve because Daniels hurt his ribs in Sunday’s game and missed practice on Wednesday. The Bears defense will be a much tougher assignment than the Panthers’ for the accuracy-challenged Mariota. It’s a big edge in this game, as the Commanders defense is not good but has been covered up because their explosive offense gets out to big leads and opposing teams have to get away from the run game. D’Andre Swift is in line for a big outing, as the Bears figure to at least stay close if not pull away. And it may not just be running the ball. Williams has had more success as he has relied on the short passing game. He ranks 34th averaging 5.7 air yards per attempt the last three weeks, after trying to do too much when he ranked sixth in air yards per attempt average at 8.8 earlier in the season.

The pick: Bears 

We keep betting against Bo Nix and the Broncos. Let’s give him a shot this week. (Stephen Lew / Imagn Images)

Every week, it seems like I pick against the Broncos and then watch to see if was too harsh on Nix. Last week … no, I wasn’t. Nix missed a lot of open receivers … and the Broncos won by 23 points. That’s because the Saints are one of the walking dead teams. And here comes another. The Panthers were mesmerized going against Marcus Mariota last week — who is, by the way, a great comp for Nix. The Panthers are worse than even the Raiders at the run game differential, averaging 53 fewer rushing yards per game than their opponent. They had a brief moment of clarity offensively when Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young, but that appears to have been due to going against the Raiders. Dalton had stunk as well and now he injured his thumb in a car accident and Young is back in. The Broncos do a lot of clever stuff up front to get pressure on quarterbacks, and they are good with the lead thanks to RB Javonte Williams. He ranks fourth (minimum 30 touches) in EPA per carry (0.14) and second in rushing success percentage (57.6) in the last three weeks. So … I will look forward to going against the Broncos again next week.

The pick: Broncos 

The last team to beat the Chiefs was the Raiders last Christmas, but that team is long gone, as Raiders coach Antonio Pierce said Wednesday. This year’s edition is still getting bad quarterback play, but the running game is not good and the defense is missing a lot of key pieces due to injury (Christian Wilkins, Malcolm Koonce, Marcus Epps). In fact, the Raiders give up 137 yards rushing a game and have the third-worst running game differential in the league at -51. The Chiefs run the ball behind Kareem Hunt, who they signed off the street after Isiah Pacheco went down. It’s amazing they are 6-0 because Patrick Mahomes has struggled (six touchdowns, eight interceptions) as the Chiefs have now lost their top three receivers (though they just traded for DeAndre Hopkins). The Chiefs are coming off a win in their Super Bowl rematch against the 49ers, but should be able to coast despite the hangover due to a strong pass rush — since Week 4, their defense ranks first in EPA per play (0.18), points allowed per game (13.7) and pressure percentage (47.1 percent) — and a big Chiefs crowd in Las Vegas.

The pick: Chiefs 

GO DEEPER

Silver: Why Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs look capable of a three-peat

The 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk for the season Sunday, while Samuel was just released from the hospital and George Kittle and Jauan Jennings are battling injuries. Christian McCaffrey is not back until at least after the bye. Sounds like a great spot for the Cowboys. But … the Cowboys can’t stop the run (they’re the worst run differential team at -66) and Jordan Mason is plenty good enough for the 49ers to ride. The Cowboys have the third-worst total rush EPA (-22.31) through Weeks 1-7 — in the past 10 seasons. And, on the other side of the ball, the Cowboys have no one to block Nick Bosa. People may not fully appreciate how bad the Cowboys are without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. They lost to the Lions 47-9 at home in their last game, and the Lions mailed in the fourth quarter. So, I guess there is some value here.

The pick: 49ers 

How dare you all ever question Mike Tomlin? Worse, I actually liked the move to bench Justin Fields for Russell Wilson last week, and I still picked against the Steelers last week against the Jets. That all said, I am going to go against the Steelers again this week. I need to see Wilson play that well again to fully buy in — his 0.23 EPA per dropback rate was his sixth-best mark going back to the start of the 2021 season — and I think Tomlin might get cute with some Fields packages. The Giants are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Eagles, but they actually have a decent pass rush (plus Steelers right tackle Broderick Jones leads the league with seven sacks allowed) and run defense. New York QB Daniel Jones stinks more often than he doesn’t, but the Steelers are not as great defensively as everyone thought they would be. They rank 20th in pressure rate. And I expect rookie WR Malik Nabers to be himself again. After missing two weeks with a concussion, Nabers averaged only 1.4 yards of separation on eight targets in Week 7, the lowest among WRs for the week.

The pick: Giants 

Best bets: We’re taking the Browns and Giants to keep it close against the Ravens and Steelers, respectively. while the Chargers and 49ers take advantage of some bad Saints and Cowboys teams. Finally, we think the Bills improve to 2-0 with Amari Cooper with a win at Seattle.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Remember when Anthony Richardson had all those amazing highlights in Week 1? That was against the Texans. Colts (+5) with the upset.

— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder. 

(Top photo of Jameis Winston: Jason Miller / Getty Images)