Saquon Barkley

• Eagles have the 7th-highest team total.

• The Bucs have allowed the 5th-most half PPR points to RBs. They’ve been without NT Vita Vea and DT Calijah Kancey up front.

Breece Hall – 97.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Jets are 7.5-point home favorites vs. the Broncos.

• Broncos LB Alex Singleton tore his ACL and LB Baron Browning is on IR already.

• Braelon Allen looks great and he’ll likely see some snaps between the 20s, but Hall has not lost a goal line opportunity and is leading the position in targets right now. Last week’s game could also be explained by it being on Thursday when Hall was on the injury report in an expected blowout.

Jordan Mason – 98.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• 49ers have the 5th-highest team total and are 10-point home favorites. Another 20 touches are expected, especially with Deebo Samuel (calf) expected to be out one more game.

• Mason is the RB5 in expected half PPR points this year.

• He’s picked up more rushing yards than expected on 50% of his carries per NextGenStats (RB3).

Kyren Williams – 95.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Rams have the 7th-lowest team total, but the entire offense centers around his involvement. He’s the RB1 in expected half PPR points and even handed off his punt return job to Xavier Smith last week.

• Rams have 3-of-5 starters on the OL right now, so it’s not as bad as a situation as it was 1-2 weeks ago.

James Conner – 67.5 rushing yards in Pick’em.

• Cardinals with the highest team total of the week.

• Commanders have allowed a league-worst 51% success rate on RB carries.

• His most recent weekly finishes: RB54, RB6, RB10, RB1, RB3, RB5, RB11, RB5.

Bijan Robinson – 105.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s finished as a top-5 half PPR RB in just 1-of-20 career games.

• This is a tough spot per the efficiency chart, especially with the Falcons potentially down their C and RT due to injuries.

• The Saints have allowed the 8th-fewest half PPR points to RBs.

Alvin Kamara – 100.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Saints Pro Bowl C Erik McCoy is out, and OG Cesar Ruiz also left late in Week 3.

• Kamara missed Wednesday’s practice.

• The Falcons have allowed the 3rd-fewest half PPR points to RBs.

Derrick Henry – 79.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Jonathan Taylor – 88.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Josh Jacobs – 57.5 rushing yards in Pick’em.

• The Vikings have allowed the 6th-fewest half PPR points to RBs.

• Jordan Love’s expected return is relatively good news for Jacobs’ scoring odds.

• Jacobs is the RB11 in rush yards over expected out of 41 qualifiers at NextGenStats. He’s just had brutal goal line luck so far. Nobody is due to more touchdowns than Jacobs.

  

Jahmyr Gibbs – 79.5 total yards in Pick’em.

James Cook – 72.5 total yards in Pick’em.

De’Von Achane

Zack Moss – 73.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Bengals with the 2nd-highest team total as 4.5-point favorites.

• This is an eruption spot per the efficiency chart, too (see above). The Panthers have allowed the 5th-most rush yards to RBs and have Pro Bowl DT Derrick Brown on IR.

  

David Montgomery

Brian Robinson

Aaron Jones

• He’s been the RB10 on RB6 usage so far.

• The Packers have allowed a 30% success rate on RB carries, the 2nd-best.

  

Chuba Hubbard – 83.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He had a season-high 20.3 expected half PPR points with Andy Dalton last week.

• He’s picked up more rushing yards than expected on a league-high 57% of his carries per NextGenStats.

• The Bengals have allowed the 5th-most EPA per carry to RBs.

  

Devin Singletary – 81.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Leading RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (min. 21 carries).

• The Cowboys are last in rushing success rate allowed since 2023. They’ve also allowed a league-high 6 rushing TDs to RBs this year.

Najee Harris

Travis Etienne – 70.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Rico Dowdle – 57.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Cowboys have the 4th-highest team total as 5.5-point favorites vs. the Giants.

• He was more involved early and in negative game script in Week 3. His tape and analytics are the best on the team, so his workload share should continue to increase at the expense of Zeke and Duece Vaughn.

  

Carson Steele

• Chiefs have the 8th-highest team total as 8.5-point favorites over the Chargers.

• Steele underwhelmed on his 16.7 expected half PPR points last week but is a positive regression candidate near the goal line. His success rate on runs is at the very top of the list. The negative ones have just come at the very worst time.

  

Tony Pollard

Jerome Ford

Kenneth Walker (Questionable)

• Don’t expect his 80% workload in his first week back from injury, especially after Zach Charbonnet played very well in his absense.

• The Lions have allowed (by far) the fewest half PPR points to RBs.

Rachaad White

Bucky Irving

• He’s faced 8+ defenders in the box on a league-low 8% of his runs per NextGenStats, and his explosive runs in Week 3 where gadget-type runs in 2-RB sets. He looks solid, but it’s far from the normal usage we see from a 1a runner so far. That could change at any moment.

J.K. Dobbins

• Chargers have the 2nd-lowest team total. Justin Herbert, LT Rashawn Slater, and RT Joe Alt are expected to miss. Trey Pipkins also didn’t practice. Gl gl!

• The Chiefs have allowed the 4th-fewest half PPR points to RBs.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Cam Akers

• Texans have the 3rd-highest team total.

• Joe Mixon (ankle) remains week-to-week, but Dameon Pierce (hamstring) is expected back. It’s unclear who will see the early-down touches. Dare Ogunbowale is likely to remain as the pass-down back either way. The floor here is significantly lower than it was last week.

  

Chase Brown

D’Andre Swift – 55.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Javonte Williams – 51.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Broncos have the 3rd-lowest team total.

• Broncos RBs have 13 rushing yards before contact on the entire season, obviously dead last. Not having OT Mike McGlinchey (IR) isn’t going to help.

  

Zach Charbonnet

Dameon Pierce (Questionable)

Jaleel McLaughlin

Roschon Johnson

Ty Chandler

Tyjae Spears

Braelon Allen

Ezekiel Elliott – 37.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Zamir White

1. Raiders have the 8th-lowest team total.

Alexander Mattison

Khalil Herbert

Samaje Perine

Emanuel Wilson

Tank Bigsby

Justice Hill

Tyler Allgeier

Antonio Gibson

Tyrone Tracy

CeeDee Lamb – 80.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Justin Jefferson – 79.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Malik Nabers – 71.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Nico Collins – 76.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Ja’Marr Chase – 73.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Rashee Rice – 75.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – 74.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• His matchup with slot CB Devon Witherspoon is one of the best of the week. The Seahawks are currently 1st in success rate allowed. Impressive.

• This assumes Sam LaPorta (ankle) is out.

DK Metcalf – 62.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Chris Godwin – 63.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Mike Evans – 60.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Marvin Harrison

• He’s the WR10 on WR13 usage.

• This is an eruption spot vs. the Commanders, who allowed 44.7 half PPR points per game to WRs. The next closest, 36.4.

  

Stefon Diggs – 55.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Diontae Johnson – 60.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

DJ Moore – 55.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• This is a get right spot vs. the Rams, who are 2nd-worst against fantasy WRs.

• He’s the WR37 on WR11 usage so far.

Chris Olave – 66.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell and FS Jessie Bates are a terrific duo to prevent these deep play action shots to Olave.

• He’s the WR28 on WR52 usage so far.

Brandon Aiyuk – 64.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• This is an eruption spot per the chart, but Patriots CB1 Christian Gonzalez is one of the corners we should care about.

• Deebo Samuel (calf) is likely out again, and if George Kittle (limited) plays, he’s likely to be at less than 100% just two weeks removed from the injury.

• He’s been the WR61 on WR24 usage so far. What the hell?

Tyreek Hill

Amari Cooper – 57.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Garrett Wilson – 56.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’ll see Broncos CB1 Patrick Surtain in man coverage. They’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest half PPR points to WRs so far.

• He’s the WR31 on WR6 usage so far.

Davante Adams – 58.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Drake London – 60.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

George Pickens – 48.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Rome Odunze

• This is a get right spot vs. the Rams, who are 2nd-worst against fantasy WRs.

• He’s the WR40 on WR21 usage. That’ll regress positively.

Terry McLaurin – 55.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• This is an eruption spot vs. the Cardinals.

• He’s the WR42 on WR40 usage so far, hauling in two incredible throws in Week 3.

Jauan Jennings – 48.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

1. He’s the WR2 on WR15 usage so far.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 49.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

1. Seahawks are 4th in neutral pass rate and are 3.5-point dogs vs. the pass-funnel Lions. They’ve allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs.

Jameson Williams – 41.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Tee Higgins – 53.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jayden Reed – 48.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• This assumes Jordan Love is back.

• The Vikings are playing 2-high shells and bringing pressure, incentivizing offenses to throw underneath. That’s where Reed typically does his damage.

Brian Thomas – 45.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• WR29 on WR48 usage so far, despite seeing Jalen Ramsey, Denzel Ward, and the Bills No. 1 passing EPA defense. Next up, Derek Stingley.

Zay Flowers – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

1. He’s the WR26 on WR12 usage so far, despite the Ravens trailing in 2-of-3 games.

2. The Bills are 1st in passing EPA allowed.

Courtland Sutton – 42.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Rashid Shaheed – 45.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Xavier Worthy – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Khalil Shakir – 45.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Christian Kirk – 44.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

DeAndre Hopkins – 34.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Calvin Ridley – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Darnell Mooney – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Tyler Lockett – 43.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Demarcus Robinson – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Tutu Atwell – 37.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Michael Pittman – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Romeo Doubs – 40.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Wan’Dale Robinson – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jerry Jeudy – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Xavier Legette – 34.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Michael Wilson

Jaylen Waddle

Jordan Addison (Questionable)

Christian Watson – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jakobi Meyers – 38.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Brandin Cooks – 38.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Ladd McConkey

Greg Dortch

Jahan Dotson

Alec Pierce

Mike Williams – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Andrei Iosivas

Allen Lazard – 28.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Keon Coleman

Quentin Johnston

Gabe Davis

Dontayvion Wicks

DeMario Douglas – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jalen Nailor

Rashod Bateman – 26.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Curtis Samuel

Jalen Tolbert

Kyler Murray – Cardinals (27.0, -3.5) vs. WAS

Josh Allen – Bills (22.0, +2.5) at BAL

Jayden Daniels – Commanders (23.5, +3.5) at ARI

Lamar Jackson – Ravens (24.5, -2.5) vs. BUF

C.J. Stroud – Texans (25.5, -6.5) vs. JAX

• Jaguars have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to QBs, who keep playing man coverage despite having their lone lock-down CB1 due to injury.

• Tank Dell is out.

• The Texans have the 3rd-highest team total of the week.

Jalen Hurts – Eagles (22.25, -1.5) at TB

• A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are both projected to be out, which is bad news but could also mean a major uptick in valuable rushing work from Hurts. He’s looked healthy this year.

• Bucs have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to QBs and have been exploited on the ground by Jayden Daniels (16-88-2) and Bo Nix (9-47-1). They have FS Antoine Winfield, DT Vita Vea, and DT Calijah Kancy on the injury report still.

• Todd Bowles humiliated the Eagles with blitzes in the NFL Playoffs earlier in 2024.

Joe Burrow – Bengals (26.0, -4.5) at CAR

Dak Prescott – Cowboys (25.0, -5.5) at NYG

Patrick Mahomes – Chiefs (23.5, -7.0) at LAC

Geno Smith – Seahawks (21.5, +3.5) at DET

Jordan Love – Packers (23.25, -3.0) vs. MIN

Jared Goff – Lions (25.0, -3.5) vs. SEA

• Seahawks have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to QBs, though they’ve been Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson.

Caleb Williams – Bears (21.75, -3.0) vs. LAR

Brock Purdy – 49ers (25.5, -10.5) vs. NE

Sam Darnold – Vikings (20.25, +3.0) at GB

Justin Fields – Steelers (20.75, -1.5) at IND

Anthony Richardson – Colts (19.25, +1.5) vs. PIT

Aaron Rodgers – Jets (23.5, -7.5) vs. DEN

Baker Mayfield – Bucs (20.75, +1.5) vs. PHI

Daniel Jones – Giants (19.5, +5.5) vs. DAL

Andy Dalton – Panthers (21.5, +4.5) vs. CIN

Kirk Cousins – Falcons (22.5, -2.5) vs. NO

Matthew Stafford – Rams (18.75, +3.0) at CHI

Trevor Lawrence – Jaguars (19.0, +6.5) at HOU

Derek Carr – Saints (20.0, +2.5) at ATL

Bo Nix – Broncos (16.0, +7.5) at NYJ

Deshaun Watson – Browns (17.75, +1.5) at LV

Will Levis – Titans (17.75, +1.0) at MIA

Tyler Huntley – Dolphins (18.75, -1.0) vs. TEN

Gardner Minshew – Raiders (19.25, -1.5) vs. CLE

Jacoby Brissett – Patriots (15.0, +10.5) at SF

Taylor Heinicke – Chargers (16.5, +7.0) vs. KC

Dallas Goedert

• Clearly the TE1 if A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are out.

• Goedert is a freak athlete, remember. He hit 21 MPH on his yards after catch play last week.

Jake Ferguson

Travis Kelce – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Brock Bowers – 41.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

George Kittle (Questionable)

Cole Kmet

Dalton Kincaid – 37.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Kyle Pitts – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Dalton Schultz – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Hunter Henry – 28.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Isaiah Likely – 28.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Colby Parkinson – 28.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Mike Gesicki – 26.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Pat Freiermuth – 29.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Zach Ertz – 29.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Tyler Conklin – 24.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Noah Fant

Mark Andrews – 31.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Elijah Higgins

Brenton Strange – 20.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Tommy Tremble – 19.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Brock Wright

Tucker Kraft – 24.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Cade Otton – 25.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jonnu Smith

Greg Dulcich – 17.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Chig Okonkwo – 17.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jordan Akins

Juwan Johnson

Johnny Mundt – 17.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Luke Musgrave