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Saints at Falcons (-1.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.

Everett: Falcons -1.5

The Falcons are just 4-10 against the Saints in their last 14 matchups, dating back to 2017. But I like Atlanta to squeak out a close win at home after coming up just short of a home upset of Kansas City on SNF in Week 3. In a game that could be decided in the fourth quarter, give me Kirk Cousins at home over Derek Carr on the road vs. a strong Atlanta secondary.

Modi: Falcons -1.5

The Saints got somewhat exposed in Week 3 in a game that was not nearly as close as the score would suggest. They got outgained 460-219 by the Eagles, and the only reasons the Saints almost won were from buffoonery from Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni and boneheaded turnovers from QB Jalen Hurts.

Rams at Bears (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.

Everett: Rams +2.5

The Chicago offensive line is a train wreck, and if the Bears don’t find some answers up front soon, Caleb Williams is going to endure a long season. This is a tough spot for the Rams, who are coming off a draining comeback win over San Francisco, but taking L.A. plus the points is an easy decision.

Modi: Rams +2.5

The Rams should win this game straight up, as the Bears offense is an epic disaster. They are the worst offense in the league, according to DVOA, with the worst OL in the league as well. The Rams are banged up, but they pull off the minor upset here.

Vikings at Packers (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.

Everett: Vikings +2.5

Green Bay is coming off two impressive showings without Jordan Love, and the Packers reportedly expect to have him back on Sunday. Against an outstanding defense led by Brian Flores, let’s go with the Vikes to pull their third straight upset (or at least cover as 2.5-point dogs), whether Green Bay goes with Love or Malik Willis uncer center

Modi: Packers -2.5

Both of these teams have been wildly impressive, but the Packers get it done at home with Jordan Love presumably returning to action.

Steelers (-2) at Colts — Sunday, 1 p.m.

Everett: Steelers -2

Colts QB Anthony Richardson has completed 50 percent of his passes or fewer in each of his first three games this year, and he’s facing an excellent Pittsburgh defense this Sunday. Give me the Steelers as road favorites in an ugly, low-scoring battle.

Modi: Steelers -2

It feels wrong to back the Steelers to start 4-0, as they seem destined for 9-8 every year, but Colts QB Anthony Richardson has been mostly bad this entire season, and it is hard to see him being able to do much against this Steelers defense.

Broncos at Jets (-7.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.

Everett: Jets -7.5

I was blindsided by the Broncos’ performance in Week 3 against Tampa Bay, a 26-7 win as heavy underdogs, but I don’t expect Bo Nix and Co. to look nearly as good in New York. Last Thursday against New England, the Jets looked as balanced as any team in the league, and the imposing N.Y. secondary will be able to humble Nix after his solid performance in Tampa Bay last weekend.

Modi: Jets -7.5

The Broncos got their first win of the season and looked good doing it, but it is still hard to trust them on a consistent basis with an offense that struggles to move the ball. Meanwhile, Rodgers looked awesome for the Jets on TNF in Week 3.

Eagles (-2.5) at Buccaneers — Sunday, 1 p.m.

Everett: Buccaneers +2.5

At full strength, the Eagles would be an easy choice, but the possible absences of top wide receivers A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and right tackle Lane Johnson make the Bucs the safe play as home underdogs. Is Tampa Bay the team that impressed in Weeks 1 and 2 in wins over Washington and Detroit, or the one that was humiliated at home by the Broncos last Sunday? For now, we’ll assume they’re the former.

Modi: Buccaneers +2.5

The Eagles dominated the Saints for most of last week, but the injuries are starting to pile up at some key positions. Both superstar WRs Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown look as though they are missing this game, along with tackle Lane Johnson.

Bengals (-4.5) at Panthers — Sunday, 1 p.m.

Everett: Panthers +4.5

Giving the benefit of the doubt to a team with preseason expectations as high as Cincinnati’s makes sense for a few weeks. At some point, though, we probably have to accept that the Bengals simply aren’t as good as advertised. Carolina has a massive chip on its shoulder and the ability to move the ball on a Cincy D that has been bullied by New England, Seattle and Washington.

Modi: Bengals -4.5

This feels gross after watching the Bengals defense get torched by the Commanders offense last week, but the Panthers had their week of fun with Andy Dalton and it is hard to see him keeping that up.

Jaguars at Texans (-6) — Sunday, 1 p.m.

Everett: Texans -7

The Jaguars looked awful the last time we saw them. They looked so bad, in fact, that they’re an easy team to fade on the road against Houston, which is coming off an ugly, one-sided loss to Minnesota. Both these teams need bounce-back performances in the worst way, but C.J. Stroud and Houston inspire far more confidence than Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars right now.

Modi: Jaguars +7

Sometimes the grossest bets are the ones that hit at the highest rate, and that is what I am expecting with this Jags game. They looked lifeless on Monday, but the NFL is weird and they manage to keep this close.

Commanders at Cardinals (-3.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Everett: Commanders +3.5

As favorites of three points or fewer in this matchup, I’d like the Cardinals, but I expect Jayden Daniels and Washington to at least keep this game close after the rookie shredded Cincinnati on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Don’t be surprised if this one is a back-and-forth shootout.

Modi: Commanders +3.5

I wanted to fade the Commanders after their impressive win against the Bengals last week, but their offense is legit and should be able to move the ball against this bad Cardinals defense.

Patriots at 49ers (-10) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Everett: 49ers -10

The Niners are not at full strength, but still dominated the Rams for most of last week before a late collapse doomed San Francisco to its second consecutive loss. Against the Jets last week, New England’s offense looked as bad as many pundits feared it would be before the season, so we’ll lay the points with the heavily favored Niners at home.

Modi: Patriots +10

Both of these teams are coming off bad losses, but the 49ers have consistently been a different team with Deebo Samuel, who projects to be out for this game as well. The Patriots at least keep this game closer than they did last week against the Jets.

Browns at Raiders (-1) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Everett: Cleveland +1

Neither of these teams looked good last week, and that’s putting it nicely. As long as Cleveland can block Maxx Crosby, Deshaun Watson and the Browns offense will be able to outscore a Raiders offense coming off a disastrous day at home against Carolina last week.

Modi: Raiders -1

Neither one of these teams inspire much confidence, but Deshaun Watson looks like he is the worst QB in the league.

Chiefs (-8) at Chargers — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Everett: Chiefs -8

It’s hard to shake the feeling that eight points is too many for KC to cover, especially on the road against a division rival. But with Justin Herbert banged up (and potentially unavailable) and rookie right tackle Joe Alt sidelined with a knee injury, the Chiefs D should dominate this matchup.

Modi: Chiefs -8

The Chargers look to be missing Justin Herbert and both of their tackles in this game. The Chiefs are an unimpressive 3-0, but they take care of business against a banged up Chargers team

Bills at Ravens — Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

Everett: Bills +2.5

The Bills as underdogs feel too good to be true right now. Baltimore got a nice win last weekend to improve to 1-2, but Josh Allen and Co. are a machine right now on both sides of the ball, and I’m not betting against them until they give me a good reason to doubt them.

Modi: Bills +2.5

The Bills might be the best team in the NFL, while the Ravens almost blew another massive fourth quarter lead last week. Give me the Bills.

Titans (-1) at Dolphins — Monday, 7:30 p.m.

Everett: Dolphins -1

The Titans have lost to Bears rookie Caleb Williams in his NFL debut, Aaron Rodgers‘ Jets and the Malik Willis-led Packers, including the latter two at home. Miami has looked awful the last two weeks, but after a blowout loss to Seattle last Sunday, let’s go with Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins to scheme up a way to pull out a win at home over Will Levis and the Titans.

Modi: Titans +1

If I could predict a tie for any game, it would be this one. Complete toss-up.

Seahawks at Lions (-3.5) — Monday, 8:15 p.m.

Everett: Seahawks +3.5

I like Detroit to win this game at home, but Seattle should not be taken lightly. Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense have been potent through three weeks, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if we see another shootout after Seattle prevailed in overtime, 37-31, against Detroit last year. The Seahawks have had a ton of success each of the last three times these teams met, with 136 points in their last three games against the Lions (all Seattle victories).

Modi: Seahawks +3.5

We are still waiting for the Lions offense to show up, but the Seahawks defense is the best in the NFL, according to both DVOA and PFF, so we will have to wait another week on that.

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