NFL Week 2 DFS Breakdown: A game-by-game look at the weekend DFS slate

Posted by Admin September 14, 2024 NFL

• The Rams’ Kyren Williams is RB1: Williams is in for a high-volume workload in a plus matchup, which has his projected ownership up.

• Jordan Mason is the epitome of “good chalk”: Most star players don’t have the upside of 28 touches in an offense as efficient as the 49ers’.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 50 minutes

This breakdown offers a game-by-game analysis of the main slate on DraftKings Sportsbook, focusing on advanced stats, trends and expected pace and play-calling. Throughout the article, I’ll make clear which players I’m targeting, but I also provide my “optimal lineup” every Sunday morning for DraftKings. This lineup is designed to be deployed in all contest types (cash games, single-entry and multi-entry GPPs) and consists of seven-of-nine players in a DK lineup to comply with DraftKings regulations of not giving out complete teams.

If you read the article and look at the player pool below the optimal lineup, it is fairly easy to figure out how to fill out the last two spots, but I like that this allows the user to take some responsibility and ownership. In addition to the optimal lineup, I also share my personal player pool (usually 16-20 players) that I’m rolling out in three-max (contests that allow three lineups per user) and other multi-entry GPPs (contests that allow as many as 150 lineups per user).

Finally, I only recommend players/lineups that I’m personally investing in via DFS or player prop bets. I, like most DFS analysts, use a lot of acronyms and specific terminology, but I will do my best to define them as I go. If you have questions, you can always contact me on Twitter (specify you are a PFF subscriber). If a player I recommend becomes an injury risk or is ruled out, I’ll update the article with a revised approach (same for weather concerns). I encourage you to stay alert to social media updates for any last-minute news before lineups lock. Profitable DFS players take advantage of last-minute news and are ready to act quickly before the lock and again before the late games kickoff.

Editor’s note: This breakdown may be used for cash games, single-entry, three-max, and high-dollar GPPs. For max-entering GPPs, use the recommended players to build your player pool (players are listed in order by my exposure). All pace and pass rates are “neutral situations” (+/- 8 points) unless stated otherwise.

Click below to jump to a game:

Strategy Notes

When preparing to play a “main slate” (the set of games with the largest prize pools and contest sizes on DraftKings each Sunday) with 13 games such as this one, we need to be OK with crossing out games, teams and players from our player pool.

One of the biggest fallacies in DFS is that it’s “easy to win if you multi-enter,” meaning if you have 150 lineups, you can cover everything and thus win. As someone who plays 150 lineups, I can’t express enough how wrong that is. Max entering is the single fastest way to blow through your bankroll, and the good multi-entry players will all tell you they instead take stands, normally based on that player’s ownership percentage. If a player is “good chalk” (a highly rostered player on a slate you feel will exceed expectations), that player will be projected to be 30% owned and could go as high as 50%-70% to get leverage on the field. In the inverse, if they think it is “bad chalk” (a highly rostered player that has a high probability of failing), they will take a stand and fade the player (either outright or by coming in way under the field in terms of ownership rate).