Daniel Dopp was perfect in Week 17, hitting on all three of his props. I managed to deliver a sweet Brock Purdy-related pick Monday night. Unfortunately, the running backs I suggested faltered mightily Sunday. Ray Davis disappeared behind James Cook and Ty Johnson. And Alexander Mattison gave away his shot to Ameer Abdullah last weekend.

But with the holiday bloat behind us, this duo is planning to kick off 2025 in the black. The challenge isn’t small, given all the postseason-related complexities woven into Week 18. Still, the six props below have high-popping potential.

Let’s get after it! — Liz Loza

All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

Quarterback props

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Why fantasy managers should trust Baker Mayfield in Week 18

Eric Karabell breaks down fantasy managers should be confident in Baker Mayfield as a solid QB1 in Week 18.

Baker Mayfield OVER 1.5 passing TDs and Mike Evans OVER 69.5 receiving yards (-120)

Loza: A win over the New Orleans Saints will allow the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to saunter into the postseason as NFC South champions. Tampa Bay could also secure a playoff berth if the Atlanta Falcons fall to the Carolina Panthers, but the division rivals are all scheduled to play at the same time, suggesting another all-out effort from Mayfield.

Mayfield ranks second at the position in passing scores, having ripped off 39 passing TDs this season. Additionally, he has recorded four straight multi-touchdown efforts. Though the New Orleans defense has given up the fewest passing scores to opposing QBs (17), it’s worth noting Mayfield hung four on the Saints in Week 6 (and Aidan O’Connell managed two against the squad last Sunday).

Evans has, not surprisingly, thrived as his QB’s No. 1 end zone target, drawing a staggering 14 end zone looks (tied for fourth among WRs). The veteran wideout has additionally averaged a healthy 70.4 receiving yards while clearing the above line in three of his past five outings. Evans has traditionally struggled against the Saints’ secondary, but with Marshon Lattimore out the door, I expect the 31-year-old to make up for lost time.

Sam Darnold passing yardage ladder: 275+ (-130), 300+ (+135), 325+ (+225)

Dopp: I am all-in on a ladder bet for Darnold in Week 18. In case you’ve never placed a ladder bet before, the idea (at least how I approach them) is that I ultimately like the chances for Darnold to get to the highest prop line posted. But rather than just betting the highest line, I’m taking multiple shots to squeeze as much out of this bet as possible. Darnold has topped 275 passing yards on only five occasions this season, but his three highest passing marks have come in Weeks 12, 14 and 17. The Minnesota Vikings are going to bring everything they have against the Detroit Lions, knowing the No. 1 seed for the NFC playoffs is at stake, and that should start with Darnold.

Another reason I’m taking this ladder bet: the Lions have been so banged up on defense that they’ve allowed QBs to torch them through the air over the past few weeks. In Week 15 against Josh Allen, the Lions gave up 362 passing yards. They gave up 334 yards to Caleb Williams in Week 16 and 377 to Brock Purdy in Week 17. Teams have recognized they can move the ball through the air against my Lions, which bodes well for this NFC North shootout. Other sportsbooks include 350+ and 375+ passing yards, and I’m playing those lines as well. Give me all of the legs of Darnold’s passing yardage line.

Darnold longest rush OVER 7.5 yards (-135)

Dopp: One of the things I’m focused on in Week 18 is taking bets on players who have something to play for. We know how much Darnold and the Vikings have on the line, so why not go back to the well and look at his rushing line as well? I’ll keep this write-up a little shorter, and you’ll understand why in a second.

Darnold isn’t a magician with his legs, but he certainly has the mobility to get out of the pocket and extend plays. Darnold has 13 carries of at least eight rushing yards this season, including two such carries against this same Lions team in Week 7. The only difference between now and Week 7 is that the Lions’ defense is much more banged up, playing with multiple backups across the defensive line and secondary. One last thing to note: The Lions have allowed QBs to have a rush of at least eight yards 29 times this season. Buckle up for a list of the most recent QBs to hit this line against my Lions:

Week 12: Anthony Richardson, four rushes over eight yards
Week 13: Caleb Williams, three rushes over eight yards
Week 14: Jordan Love, two rushes over eight yards
Week 15: Josh Allen, four rushes over eight yards
Week 16: Caleb Williams, three rushes over eight yards
Week 17: Brock Purdy, one rush over eight yards

That’s six games in a row in which they’ve let a QB hit this line. I’m looking at Darnold to keep that streak going thanks to Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s man-heavy scheme that allows for large swaths of field for QBs to scramble through.

Running back props

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Why Yates says to start Bijan Robinson and Drake London in Week 18

Field Yates explains why Falcons’ Bijan Robinson and Drake London are lineup locks heading to their Week 18 matchup vs. the Panthers.

Bijan Robinson OVER 115.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114)

Loza: Atlanta’s odds of advancing to the postseason might be longer than Peachtree Street, but that doesn’t mean the Falcons won’t give everything they’ve got against Carolina. Robinson is the embodiment of that everything. The star running back ranks inside the top five at the position in total rushing and total receiving yards on the season, averaging over 107 scrimmage yards per game.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have given up the most rushing yards (2,830) and the highest YPC (5.1) to opposing rushers. Carolina’s receiving numbers against RBs aren’t as staggering, largely because game flow hasn’t required opposing offenses to pass against the Panthers’ defense. Still, the Cardiac Cats have given up a conversion rate of 86% to targeted RBs and an average of 36.6 receiving yards per game (ninth most) to opposing backfields.

There is, of course, a chance Tyler Allgeier could come in to spell Robinson were the Falcons to go up big early. But in a must-win situation (and with Drake London still nursing a knee issue), it would make a world of sense to lean on the player who has touched the ball at least 20 times per game and managed at least 98 total yards in five consecutive efforts.

Wide receiver props

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Why fantasy managers should start all Vikings and Lions

Field Yates previews the Vikings’ and Lions’ Week 18 matchup and encourages fantasy managers to start all available players in the game.

Jameson Williams OVER 59.5 receiving yards (-110), Williams anytime TD (+125)

Loza: I’m going to save Daniel from himself here. I want my friend to cheer for his team without any work-related pressure. You’re welcome, bud.

Given the Lions’ lack of a pass rush and noting Darnold’s incredible showing in Week 17, there’s a considerable amount of money being placed on Minnesota. And the Vikings’ defense might be the key to securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. But that doesn’t mean the Lions won’t go down swinging. There is zero quit in Detroit. How Ben Johnson deploys his playmakers figures to be interesting.

Though Sam LaPorta has been dominant lately (either scoring a touchdown or clearing 100 receiving yards in three straight outings), I’m not trusting another boom effort in Week 18. Not with LB Ivan Pace Jr. back for Minnesota. With Pace shoring up the middle of the field, quarterback Jared Goff figures to pivot to the perimeter — and for good reason, as the Vikings have given up the second-most receiving yards to outside WRs (115.5 per game).

Admittedly, Williams stumbled in his first showing at Minnesota, but he also hadn’t been as deeply integrated into the offense in Week 7. But since returning from this two-game suspension in Week 10, the second-year pass catcher has averaged 1.6 more targets per game than he did in Weeks 1-7. He has also averaged nearly 76 receiving yards while finding the end zone four times (including his past three games) since then. Given the stakes, Williams should sky.

Jordan Addison OVER 69.5 receiving yards and 5+ receptions (+125)

Dopp: You know what? Why not go back to the well one more time to close out the regular season? I’ve already taken two Vikings props, why not make it a hat trick and have faith in Addison’s potential in this one? As I’ve said countless times in this column this season, the Lions have been very bad against opposing WRs, giving up the most yards and second-most receptions (trailing only the Vikings) in the NFL. They’ve given up over 1,085 passing yards in the past three games combined, the most in the NFL over that span by almost 200 yards.

Addison has been hitting this reception line with ease in the second half of the season, but the yards are a little higher than usual. He has hit 70 yards only three times this season, but everything lines up for him to take advantage of the Lions’ secondary. With how bad the Lions have been against opposing WRs, Addison’s continued ascension beside Justin Jefferson, a super high game total of 56.5 points in the biggest game of the season and two of the worst pass defense teams in the NFL, there’s a lot of reasons to think this two-leg parlay could hit. And just for kicks, if you wanted to add in an Addison anytime TD, this would turn into a +280 bet.

Good luck in Week 18, and we’ll see you guys next week with some playoff props.

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