Welcome to the Week 16 NFL fantasy cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions.

Player rankings referenced in this article are current as of Dec. 22. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section.

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Last updated: 7:55 a.m. ET, Dec. 22

Injury news | Weather report
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Injury news

Updated through 7:55 a.m. ET, Dec. 22

Sunday 1 p.m.

David Montgomery, RB, DET (knee) — Out
Montgomery could be back for the playoffs after consulting with multiple medical experts, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Head coach Dan Campbell said Detroit will turn to Craig Reynolds and “potentially” rookie Sione Vaki to take on expanded roles behind Jahmyr Gibbs in the meantime.

Nick Chubb, RB, CHI (foot) — Out / injured reserve
Chubb was placed on injured reserve after breaking his foot. Jerome Ford should lead the backfield for the remainder of the season.

Cedric Tillman, WR, CLE (concussion) — Questionable
David Njoku, TE, CLE (hamstring) — Questionable
Tillman was a limited participant in practice Thursday, while Njoku was not spotted, according to The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Mary Kay Cabot. Jerry Jeudy has been the Cleveland wide receiver to roster lately, averaging 22.45 PPR points per game since Week 9; Njoku has averaged 13.39 PPR points per game. But Dorian Thompson-Robinson replaces Jameis Winston (questionable) as QB this week, so Njoku becomes a fringe start at tight end, while Jeudy is a higher-end flex option.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, NYG (ankle) — Questionable
Tracy is expected to play, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Since Week 13, Tracy is averaging 3.1 yards per carry, compared to 5.1 YPC before then. He still had 19.3 PPR points in Week 14, and he’s Jake Ciely’s RB37 if he plays. If he can’t go, Devin Singletary will man the backfield with help from Eric Gray.

Drew Lock, QB, NYG (heel/left elbow) — Expected to play
Lock was limited in Wednesday’s practice but is expected to start in Week 16 and has come off the injury report. Tommy DeVito will be the backup.

Alec Pierce, WR, IND (concussion) — Out
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND (back) — Expected to play
Pittman is now expected to play, and Pierce has been ruled out. Josh Downs is Indy’s most highly targeted receiver (7.82 targets per game), followed by Pittman (6.77) and Pierce (4.14). Downs also averages the most receiving yards per game (56.91), and he could have a big week with Pierce out of the lineup. But temper expectations to some degree with Anthony Richardson, who is wildly inconsistent, under center.

Matt Gay, K, IND (neck) — Questionable
Gay did not participate in Thursday’s practice. Keep an eye on the Colts and whether they sign a kicker to the practice squad.

Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR (knee/illness) — Expected to play
Higbee was activated from the physically unable to perform list and missed Thursday’s practice with an illness. But he is expected to make his season debut in Week 16 after having worked his way back from a torn MCL and ACL. If he can’t play, Colby Parkinson will start for the Rams but shouldn’t start in fantasy football lineups.

Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ (back) — Questionable
Allen remains questionable. He left Week 15’s contest against the Jaguars after only two carries for five yards. Breece Hall led the backfield with nine rushes, and Isaiah Davis had five carries. With Hall off the injury report, it’s probably best to bench Allen and Davis this week.

Xavier Legette, WR, CAR (hip) — Out
Jalen Coker, WR, CAR (quadriceps) — Questionable
Legette didn’t practice Thursday and has been ruled out. Adam Thielen is Bryce Young’s top target, while Coker — a limited participant in Thursday’s practice — had 110 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 15. Assuming Coker plays, both he and Thielen benefit with Legette out.

Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI (concussion) — Expected to play
Johnson was a full participant Thursday and should see carries alongside D’Andre Swift in Week 16. With Johnson out last week, Swift handled most of the backfield work with 4.2 yards per carry on 19 rushes.

Younghoe Koo, K, ATL (hip) — Out / Injured reserve
Koo has been placed on injured reserve after re-aggravating a hip injury during Monday’s win against the Raiders, according to the Falcons’ official site. The Falcons have signed Riley Patterson off the Browns’ practice squad to replace Koo.

Matt Prater, K, ARI (knee) — Out
Prater was designated to return from injured reserve, according to the Cardinals’ official site but has been ruled out for Week 16. Chad Ryland, who has made 84.5 percent of his field goals this season and all extra points, will start. His longest kick on the year was a 57-yarder, and he’s made all attempts over 50-plus yards.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Isaac Guerendo, RB, SF (foot/hamstring) — Out
Guerendo has been ruled out; Patrick Taylor Jr. is next up and a decent deep-league flex option.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA (calf) — Expected to play
Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA (oblique) — Expected to play
Walker and Charbonnet have come off the injury report and are expected to play. Charbonnet has excelled in the backfield after Walker’s injury, and the Seahawks could have a running back tandem on their hands moving forward, putting both backs in RB2/flex territory.

Geno Smith, QB, SEA (knee) — Expected to play
Smith was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and is now expected to play, despite leaving Week 15’s matchup with a knee injury.

Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA (wrist/personal) — Questionable
Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA (knee) — Doubtful
Hill is expected to suit up, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter; Waddle did not practice Thursday. In Miami’s ugly loss to Houston in Week 15, TE Jonnu Smith and WR Malik Washington had more receiving yards than Hill or Waddle. If Waddle sits, Washington could have another decent game.

Sincere McCormick, RB, LV (ankle) — Injured reserve
McCormick joined fellow RB Zamir White on injured reserve, leaving the Raiders with RBs Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah in the backfield. Abdullah has been the more efficient back with 4.1 yards per carry, but Mattison (3.3 YPC) averages 9.45 rushes per game, compared to Abdullah’s 2.79.

Tony Pollard, RB, TEN (ankle) — Questionable
Pollard was on the injury report ahead of Week 15, and here he is again. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Pollard is expected to play. But if he doesn’t, Tyjae Spears could be a decent flex option.

Nick Folk, K, TEN (abdomen) — Questionable
Head coach Brian Callahan said Folk will be a game-time decision, according to ESPN’s Turron Davenport. The Titans signed K Brayden Narveson to the active roster and are keeping him under contract through 2025, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

Zach Ertz, TE, WAS (concussion) — Questionable
Ertz was a limited participant in practice this week after leaving Week 15’s contest with a concussion. But ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that he is expected to play. Backups John Bates and rookie Ben Sinnott are next up on the Commanders’ depth chart if he unexpectedly sits.

Sunday Night Football

Bucky Irving, RB, TB (back/hip) — Expected to play
Irving was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice but is expected to play. He was on the injury report ahead of Week 15, too, and then had 15 carries for 117 yards. Rachaad White and Irving will likely share work in the backfield in Week 16. Irving has the edge on White but both are in RB2 territory.

Cade Otton, TE, TB (knee) — Out
Otton didn’t practice Thursday and has been ruled out for Week 16. He has been a great addition to Tampa Bay’s offense but has slowed recently. Otton’s best performance in the past five weeks came in Week 14 when he had 70 yards receiving on three catches and four targets. Payne Durham is next on the depth chart but has scored 5.4 PPR points the entire season.

Monday Night Football

Derek Carr, QB, NO (concussion, hand) — Out
Carr was examined for his fractured left hand and is a few weeks away from being cleared to take contact, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi said Spencer Rattler will start at quarterback on Monday.

Alvin Kamara, RB, NO (groin) — Out
Kamara has been ruled out for Monday night’s game, as his groin injury is worse than initially thought. Kendre Miller will lead the Saints backfield in Kamara’s absence and is a decent flex option. But Green Bay has a tough rush defense, and the Saints may play from behind, forcing them to throw more often.

Chris Olave, WR, NO (concussion) — Out
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, NO (chest) — Questionable
Olave’s 21-day window to return from the injured reserve has been opened, but he was limited at practice and has been ruled out. Valdes-Scantling didn’t practice Friday due to illness, and while he’s been the most startable pass catcher for the Saints with Olave out, it’s tough to start MVS during fantasy playoffs with Spencer Rattler under center.

December weather is here, and seven matchups this week come with expected temperatures below 35 degrees. The Patriots–Bills contest could see temperatures in the teens. In Jake Ciely’s fantasy football strategy guide to weather, he notes that the passing game is impacted when temperatures drop that low, as illustrated in the table below.

According to Rotowire’s aggregated NFL-related forecasts, only the Vikings-Seahawks contest comes with a higher chance (93 percent) of precipitation (rain); the expected temperature for the game is 49 degrees.

Minnesota Vikings (12-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

Running backs do just fine when rain hits, so start Vikings RB Aaron Jones Sr. without worry. After Zach Charbonnet’s performance in Kenneth Walker III’s absence, the Seattle backs could share carries, but rain might mean more backfield touches.

According to TruMedia, Sam Darnold has played in three games where rain was present at kickoff. In two of the three games, he played poorly. However, combined, his completion percentage was 60 percent, with a 78.0 passer rating. He threw for three touchdowns, rushed for one and had one interception. Without rain, his career completion percentage is only 61.3 percent, though it’s been 67.6 percent this season.

Darnold is having an incredible year, so his career stats are less telling, but his poor play in the rain matters and could limit Justin Jefferson’s and Jordan Addison’s ceilings. In fantasy, Jefferson is a must-start WR1, and Addison is a WR2, so consider complementing them with another high-ceiling (rather than high-floor) player in the flex position.

Geno Smith is even worse in the rain. His rainy-day completion percentage is a dismal 55.6 percent, with a 69.5 passer rating — over 9 points lower in each category than his career numbers of a 65 percent completion percentage and an 88.1 passer rating. DK Metcalf is already low on Ciely’s weekly rankings at WR38, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s (Ciely’s WR13) fantasy production may also be limited.

The Minnesota Vikings travel to Lumen Field as field-goal favorites over the Seattle Seahawks. Sam Darnold has revived his career under head coach Kevin O’Connell (Coach of the Year, anyone?) with the fourth-best passer rating (104.9) in the NFL. Over one-third of Darnold’s 3,530 passing yards have gone to Justin Jefferson. When he draws coverage, Jordan Addison benefits with a ceiling of around 30 PPR points, which he’s topped twice, most recently in Week 14. Aaron Jones Sr. is a reliable fantasy starter, and T.J. Hockenson is Ciely’s TE6 this week. This team has a loaded fantasy offense, and Seattle’s defense is … average.

For the Seahawks, Geno Smith is expected to play after leaving with a knee injury last week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the receiver to start for the Hawks, especially as DK Metcalf nurses a shoulder injury. JSN’s ascent means DK Metcalf can’t be started confidently, as his target share has dropped below 20 percent. Kenneth Walker III could return this week, but Zach Charbonnet has excelled in his absence, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. If Walker plays, he and Charbonnet will likely share carries and move to RB2/3 territory.

Read the full preview.

Sunday night

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)

• Venue: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by just over a field goal on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Baker Mayfield, in the second year of his redemption tour, ranks third in the NFL in passing yards and completion percentage, but he also has 14 interceptions, fewer than only the recently benched Kirk Cousins. While Mayfield’s connection with Mike Evans is ever-giving to fantasy players, lately, he’s building rapport with rookie Jalen McMillan, who scored 21.9 and 18.5 PPR points in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively. And Bucky Irving and Rachaad White make a great one-two punch in the backfield. Since Week 11, the Bucs’ offense ranks third in explosive play percentage.

But for all its offensive spoils, Tampa Bay struggles on defense, surrendering the third-most passing yards per game (247.7). Although Cooper Rush may not fully exploit this weakness, CeeDee Lamb stands to benefit. In Week 15, Lamb topped 100 receiving yards for the first time since Dak Prescott’s injury, and he’s scored over 20 PPR points two weeks in a row. Rico Dowdle has saved the Cowboys from looking foolish after not investing in a running back this offseason. He’s had three 100-rushing yard games in a row with near-complete control of the backfield. But the fantasy depth ends there, especially during the playoffs. Turn elsewhere (maybe across the field to McMillan) for players to flex in Week 16.

Read the full preview.

Monday night

New Orleans Saints (5-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

• Venue: Lambeau Field — Green Bay, Wis.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, ABC

Green Bay, favored by over two touchdowns at home as of Thursday afternoon, can clinch a wild-card spot by defeating the New Orleans Saints this week. Jordan Love has been impressive lately, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game with a 119.9 passer rating since Week 11. However, starting a Green Bay wide receiver still feels like a gamble. Romeo Doubs is rostered in only 41.5 percent of ESPN leagues, leads the team in targets per game, and has never scored zero PPR points, unlike Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Yet, when all three are on the field together, Reed wins the target share battle. Given the fantasy playoffs, avoiding all Packers WRs may be wise. Look to other skill positions where Tucker Kraft is fantasy’s TE8 and Josh Jacobs is RB6 on the year … which brings us to the Saints.

Alvin Kamara (groin) is questionable ahead of this matchup, and in Week 15, he was out-rushed by Kendre Miller after Kamara left with an injury. If Kamara sits, Miller is a fringe RB2/flex option. However, Green Bay’s rush defense is in the top 10 in most categories, and the Saints will likely (according to the odds) be playing catch-up most of the game. Otherwise, there’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whose ceiling was high with Derek Carr, but his value diminishes with Spencer Rattler throwing passes … and that’s all folks.

Read the full preview (coming Monday)

Jerome Ford is rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues (44 percent), so he could be on waivers in your league. But should we start him against the Bengals if we have him on our teams, or we can pick him up? I’d have him about RB20, given that Jameis Winston is benched. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has basically no floor except whatever we think the Bengals’ defense provides (which could be somewhat high). Maybe Ford is 15th. My point is he’s not an automatic start.

Kendre Miller has a brutal matchup against Green Bay, and we’re not sure Alvin Kamara is even out. If Kamara plays, that’s probably the worst-case scenario for managers of both players. Miller and Kamara will have to contribute mostly as receivers, and they won’t do much in the passing game without Derek Carr as their QB.

As for receivers on waivers, generally, I’d rank them Romeo Doubs, Jalen Coker, Rashod Bateman.

The matchup with the Steelers is the major problem for Bateman. The Ravens are likely to score one to two TDs.

I like Doubs (No. 55) more than the market because the top three Green Bay WRs each have two-TD ceilings and no floor. They’re exactly the same. So Doubs has a 20 to 33 percent chance of winning a playoff game for you, no different than Jayden Reed, even though Reed will be started in almost all deeper formats.

Coker gets the Cardinals, a sort of a neutral matchup, in the Mayor of Munchkin City Bowl (winner gets to keep the ruby slippers).

—Salfino

See all of Salfino’s insights.

Patrick Taylor Jr., RB, SF (48 percent): The 49ers are down to Taylor as the likely starter. Three Niners running backs are already on injured reserve, and Isaac Guerendo is unlikely to play this week due to injury. The San Francisco offense might rebound in Miami, and any RB who starts for them has the potential to post decent fantasy totals. Taylor models as a physical runner who should be a drive finisher for the 49ers. Miami has allowed 12 rushing TDs to RBs, tied for fourth-most in the league.

Brenton Strange, TE, JAX (33 percent): Strange briefly flashed on fantasy radar earlier this season with two double-figure PPR performances before bursting onto the scene officially last week with an 11-reception outing. The Las Vegas Raiders rank 29th in receptions allowed to TEs, so Strange can be streamed confidently in Week 16. He is working through a shoulder injury, but reports indicate that Strange should play this week.

—Engel

See all Week 16 flex fliers.

Get Ciely’s full Week 16 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.

(Photo: Jason Miller/Getty Images)