NFL Week 16 game picks: Odds and predictions for every matchup

Posted by Admin December 16, 2024 NFL

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There are just three games left in the 2024 NFL regular season, so the Week 16 schedule is littered with matchups that will have a profound effect on this year’s playoffs. The race for division titles, seeds and wild-card spots is heating up, and it makes for a fascinating set of games over four days (including Saturday this week).

It starts with “Thursday Night Football” when the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers for a game that will have a huge impact on seeding in the AFC. Then come two huge AFC tilts on Thursday afternoon when the AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs host the AFC South champion Houston Texans followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens renewing their rivalry in Baltimore.

On Sunday, the NFC field could gain some clarity after the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles visit the Washington Commanders in an NFC East clash that would also be one of the NFC wild card games if the season were to end before Week 16. The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks also face one another with the result likely to have major postseason implications.

It’s shaping up to be a Week 16 that alters the standings heading into the final stretch of the regular season. Analysts and experts are already weighing in on what might happen with playoff spots on the line. Here is an early look at picks and predictions for every game on the Week 16 schedule.

NFL Week 16 game predictions, picks

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Monday, Dec. 16

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Date: Thursday, Dec. 19
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
TV: None
Streaming: Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Chargers (-3)

∎ Arizona Republic: Chargers 23, Broncos 20

“These teams are in great position for the NFL playoffs, but seeding could be on the line at SoFi Stadium. The Broncos are the hotter team, but the Chargers are desperate after two straight losses.”

∎ Pro Football Network: Broncos 27, Chargers 17

“Even with a healthy (Justin) Herbert, this line is the wrong way around, so with their passer also struggling, it seems bizarre that the Chargers are three-point favorites. The Denver Broncos are the better team offensively and defensively, although they have played an easier schedule than the Chargers.”

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Saturday, Dec. 21
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: NBC
Streaming: Peacock, Fubo
Spread: Texans (-2.5)

∎ Sporting News: Chiefs 23, Texans 20

“The Chiefs might be without franchise player and back-to-back Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes for the first time in a while, which has the Texans as road favorites early in the week. Capitalize now, because Kansas City isn’t about to get rolled by an AFC foe at Arrowhead. … Kansas City’s defense has been its top weapon all season.”

∎ Bookies.com: Back the Chiefs

“Both teams are divisional champions and could well meet in the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury will be a concern all week although the post-game X-Ray was negative. … It will be cold (high 20s) and windy at Arrowhead on Saturday. The Texans have played only 2 outdoor games this season.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Date: Saturday, Dec. 21
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
TV: FOX
Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Ravens (-6.5)

∎ ESPN: Mike Tomlin and the Steelers

“The key here, as always, is to back the dog in the John Harbaugh-Mike Tomlin rivalry, which has gone an astounding 24-6-3 against the spread (80%). … Mike Tomlin knows how to game-plan for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense, as evidenced by the fact that the Ravens are averaging just 13.8 points per game over their past eight showdowns with the Steelers.”

∎ BetMGM: Take the points with Pittsburgh

Wait “to grab this side until clarity emerges about T.J. Watt’s ankle injury. … Watt’s absence would severely impact Pittsburgh’s ability to exploit Baltimore’s offensive line and contain Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh also could return George Pickens for Saturday’s game. That would boost an offense ranking 30th in offensive success rate over the previous two games. But the crux of this bet is trusting Tomlin as an underdog in a divisional contest. The Steelers head coach is 66% against the spread as a market (underdog) in his career.”

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
TV: FOX
Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Falcons (-10)

∎ ESPN: Take the Giants (and hope)

“Since Week 10, Kirk Cousins ranks 27th out of 32 quarterbacks in QBR. That’s one spot behind Drew Lock, by the way. Give me the points and hope the Giants just run the ball.”

∎ NorthJersey.com: Falcons win big

“Whether it’s Tim Boyle – who replaced an injured Tommy DeVito under center late in the fourth quarter – or the latter being healthy enough to start, it’s going to be a tall ask for Big Blue to be competitive on the road in Atlanta.”

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
TV: FOX
Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Cardinals (-4)

∎ Arizona Republic: Cardinals 24, Panthers 21

“The Cardinals ended a three-game skid with their win over the Patriots. Kyler Murray and company will start a win streak against the Panthers, who have lost four straight.”

∎ Pro Football Network: Cardinals 27, Panthers 16

“After several promising performances, the Carolina Panthers took a massive step back in Week 15 against the Dallas Cowboys. They now face an Arizona Cardinals team that has proven capable of beating up on bad teams this season. Arizona has been a very Jekyll and Hyde unit in 2024, but the metrics tell us that they are the better team across the board. Chilly weather being forecasted for Charlotte on Sunday does not make this as easy as it should be to take the Cardinals, but they should have too much for the Panthers.”

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Soldier Field (Chicago)
TV: FOX
Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Lions (-6.5)

∎ NorthJersey.com: Bet on the Bears

“The injuries keep coming for Detroit. Already missing numerous impactful players/starters on defense, the list keeps growing with defensive tackle Alim McNeill out for the year with a torn ACL and cornerback Carlton Davis out indefinitely with a broken jaw. … It was also less than a month ago that No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and Co. went into Detroit on Thanksgiving Day and nearly beat the Lions on the road.”

∎ Sportsnaut: Lions 31, Bears 27

“An injury-depleted Lions defense will probably keep this game closer than it should be, but Detroit’s offense won’t allow for a second consecutive loss.”

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
TV: CBS
Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Colts (4.5)

∎ Arizona Republic: Colts 21, Titans 13

“The Colts committed five turnovers in their loss to the Broncos. If they can take care of the ball against the Titans, they should be able to get a much-needed victory.”

∎ Pro Football Network: Colts 20, Titans 17

“The Titans are fading badly and could be making a change at quarterback this week. Indianapolis is the better of the two teams, and they have something of substance to play for. It already won a close game in Tennessee, and it very much feels like that could be the case again this week. (Anthony) Richardson makes them a tough team to trust.”

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
TV: CBS
Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Rams (-3)

∎ BetMGM: Go with the Rams

“This matchup is a straight nightmare for the Jets defense. Since Week 8 – the point where the Rams returned Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua – the Rams rank eighth in offensive expected points added per play. Over that same timeframe, the Jets defense ranks 29th in the corresponding defensive categories.”

∎ NorthJersey.com: Rams win by at least a field goal

“The Jets have shown a lot of fight over the past two games away from the MetLife Stadium … however the Rams are a completely different beast compared to the Jacksonville team the Jets had to face. Gang Green’s defense will have their hands full covering the likes of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp all game long.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Maryland)
TV: FOX
Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)

∎ ESPN: Lay the points with the Eagles

“Jayden Daniels might be healthier in this game than he was in the first Eagles contest, but the Vic Fangio-led Eagles defense continues to be the league’s best, and Fangio has been particularly successful against mobile quarterbacks in his career. … Philadelphia should be able to run all over Washington and win this comfortably.”

∎ Covers.com: Bet the Eagles

“Philadelphia out-muscled Pittsburgh this Sunday in a 27-13 win that wasn’t even that close. … The Commanders barely beat New Orleans deploying two backup QBs in Week 15 and haven’t looked right since early November.”

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati, Ohio)
TV: CBS
Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Bengals (-7)

∎ NorthJersey.com: Bengals cover

“The Bengals should be able to cruise in this spot versus a Cleveland defense that has surrendered 27 or more points in four of their prior six contests and are 4-10 against the spread, tied for second worst in the league with the Giants. This has all the makings of a high scoring affair.”

∎ Bookies.com: Take the Bengals in bad weather

“Between Winston’s passes and winds gusting up to 30 MPH, the ball could land anywhere between the Browns‘ receiving corps and Louisville.Joe Burrow knows this weather well. The Bengals have covered seven-straight against teams with a losing record.”

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: Lumen Field (Seattle)
TV: FOX
Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Vikings (-4.5)

∎ Pro Football Network: Vikings 24, Seahawks 17

Week 15 “showed us where the Seattle Seahawks sit relative to the rest of the NFC. They are a good enough team to beat other middling teams but are not a team we should expect to compete with the very best in the conference. That is what the Minnesota Vikings are, as they remain fully engrossed in the race for the NFC North and the top seed in the NFC.”

∎ Arizona Republic: Vikings 24, Seahawks 17

“This game became very important for Seattle after its loss to Green Bay. Problem is, the Vikings are a good road team and the Seahawks are just 3-5 at home this season.”

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TV: CBS
Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Bills (-14)

∎ Sporting News: Bills 34, Patriots 17

“Jerod Mayo’s team doesn’t stand a chance against their division rivals, especially in Orchard Park. New England averages 17 points per game on the season (second-worst), while Buffalo averages 31.8 (second-best). Their home/road splits point to an even greater disparity.”

∎ NorthJersey.com: Bills roll

“This is clearly a different Bills team that is clicking on all cylinders and won’t allow 40+ points for a third consecutive week after facing two high quality offenses in the Rams and Lions … Buffalo is 7-2 against the spread after that field goal win over the Jets two months ago and are now back at home where they’ve won by nine or more points in four of six games this season.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
TV: CBS
Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Raiders (-1)

∎ Arizona Republic: Jaguars 20, Raiders 13

“Since these teams are both so bad, does that mean we could be in for a good game? We’re not crossing our fingers. Expect an ugly contest. We have more confidence in the Jaguars’ ability to score.”

∎ Pro Football Network: Jaguars 20, Raiders 17

“If it wasn’t for the crumbling New York Giants, this would essentially be the matchup to decide the direction of the first-overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Games like this are odd because both teams would be better off long-term losing, but there is not a player on the field who will think that way. Additionally, you have two coaches potentially fighting for their jobs.”

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
TV: CBS
Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)

∎ Sporting News: 49ers 23, Dolphins 21

“Tua Tagovailoa and company managed just 12 points against the Texans in Week 15, and they barely squeaked by a 3-9 Jets team at home two weeks ago. Fred Warner and friends will be itching to get a W after a frustrating loss to the Rams in the elements last Thursday. Kyle Shanahan coming off a mini-bye against former Niners assistant Mike McDaniel and a soft Dolphins squad? Yeah, we’ll take San Francisco.”

∎ Betting Pros: 49ers win

“This matchup is on (Brock) Purdy’s shoulders. The 49ers can’t afford another loss if they want to make the playoffs. That said, the offense has gained nearly 232 yards in the air and 133.50 yards on the ground per game. They’ve been way more consistent than Miami’s offense throughout the season. … The 49ers will be fine if they can prevent Tagovailoa from making plays down the field to Tyreek Hill.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
TV: NBC
Streaming: Peacock, Fubo
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)

∎ Bookies.com: Back the Bucs

“Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers finally get some prime-time love. Tampa Bay is on its way to a fifth-straight playoff appearance. The Buccaneers zapped the Chargers defense in a 40-17 blowout Sunday. Mike Evans and Mayfield are the hottest QB-WR duo in the NFL right now and the Cowboys offer nothing to slow their roll.”

∎ Arizona Republic: Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 23

“Dallas is playing better, but the Cowboys are just 1-6 at home this season. The Buccaneers have won four straight and are 5-2 on the road. Advantage: Tampa Bay.”

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

Date: Monday, Dec. 23
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: ABC, ESPN
Streaming: Fubo (free trial)
Spread: Packers (-13.5)

∎ BetMGM: Fade Jordan Love and the Packers

“Love is only 7-7 against the spread as a market favorite in his career. However, Monday’s game marks the first time Love will close north of a touchdown favorite. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is also a relatively inexperienced big favorite … Pair that data with the fact New Orleans ranks 12th in defensive EPA per play over the last three games, and grab the (underdog) at a huge number.”

∎ Pro Football Network: Packers 30, Saints 17

“The Green Bay Packers laid their credentials firmly on the table in their Week 15 win over the Seahawks. They have established themselves as a top-four team in the NFC and should beat the Saints at home on a potentially freezing night in Lambeau Field. The only concern is that with a meeting with the Vikings in Week 17, the Packers overlook this game slightly.”

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