Joe Mixon – 106.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Saquon Barkley – 113.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Derrick Henry – 107.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB15 on RB23 usage this month.

• The Ravens project for the most points this week … as 15-point favorites. 15!!!!!! That just doesn’t happen in the NFL. Part of the reason the spread is that substantial is because three Giants DTs are on injured reserve, including All Pro level DT Dexter Lawrence.

Chase Brown – 101.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB5 on RB4 usage this month and has been a league winner since Zack Moss had a fluky season-ending neck injury. The usage split has been 9.0 expected half PPR points with Moss to 21.2 expected without him. They just aren’t using Khalil Herbert.

• The Bengals are 4th in projected points.

Bijan Robinson

Zach Charbonnet

• He had a season-high 26.7 expected half PPR points in Week 14 and showed more speed than I remembered. He’s a classic bellcow with pass-game and goal-line usage, assuming Kenneth Walker’s calf injury lingers.

• The Packers have allowed the 4th-most RB receiving yards.

Josh Jacobs – 90.5 total yards in Pick’em.

De’Von Achane – 87.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB6 on RB5 usage this month, coming off a season-high 27.0 expected half PPR points. Achane is The Greatest PPR Scam On Turf right now.

• The Texans are 3rd-best in rushing EPA allowed since October. This will be a reception-based game. It helps that LB Azeez Al-Shaair is suspended.

Jahmyr Gibbs – 92.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB7 on RB13 usage this month.

• The Lions are 2nd in projected points, and the Bills have allowed the most receptions to RBs.

Brian Robinson – 84.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB11 on RB21 usage this month, but Austin Ekeler (concussion) is on IR and Robinson should be fresh off the bye. The Commanders are 8th in projected points, and this is an eruption spot based on matchup.

James Conner – 91.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB19 on RB17 usage this month, coming off a season-high 18.1 expected half PPR points. The Cardinals are 6th in projected points, and rookie RB Trey Benson isn’t trusted yet. Arizona is still in the playoff mix, which means more and more James Conner. It’s a nice bonus to be 6-point home favorites against the Patriots.

Kyren Williams – 86.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB10 on RB19 usage this month.

• The 49ers are 4th-worst in rushing EPA allowed since October and might not have EDGE1 Nick Bosa again.

Chuba Hubbard – 98.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB21 on RB6 usage this month. Since Week 8 when Bryce Young returned and has looked night-and-day on tape, Hubbard is averaging 14.8 half PPR points on 17.4 expected. That’s a very real fringe RB1 baseline. Without Jonathon Brooks (ACL), there’s little to worry about again. The Panthers are projected for league-average points this week (complementary), and this is an eruption spot based on matchups.

  

Rico Dowdle – 99.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB18 on RB20 usage this month, seeing 17.2 and 13.1 expected half PPR points over the last two weeks with Zeke getting fully benched.

• This is an eruption spot against the Panthers, the league’s worst run defense per EPA and fantasy points allowed.

David Montgomery – 75.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB8 on RB11 usage this month, coming off a season-high 20.1 expected HPPR.

• The Lions are 2nd in projected points.

Rachaad White

• This assumes Bucky Irving (back) misses. He’s the RB12 on RB22 usage this month largely with Irving in the lineup, and when he missed last week, White completely took over (14.6 expected half PPR points). In fact, White was playing more than Irving even before he left with injury.

  

Isaac Guerendo (Questionable) – 77.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• In 3 quarters of play, Guerendo scored on a solid 13.5 expected half PPR points. If fully healthy, Guerendo is a fringe RB1 in a high-scoring environment. I don’t think we can guarantee he’ll be fully healthy, and it always makes me nervous when a rookie doesn’t practice much before the game. This is what Schefter said this morning. Hopefully we get more information during pre-game warm ups.

Alvin Kamara – 112.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB22 on RB10 usage this month, but the Kendre Miller return did move the needle (negatively) last week. Kamara’s expected half PPR points dropped to 13.6, and now there’s a backup QB and an 18-point team total to work through. If the season is over (2nd fewest projected points this week), then it’d make sense to get Miller 6-12 looks every week.

  

Aaron Jones – 79.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB17 on RB15 usage this month.

• The Vikings are 7th in projected points as 7-point home favorites to the Bears, who’ve allowed the 3rd-most RB rushing yards.

Jonathan Taylor – 88.5 total yards in Pick’em.

James Cook – 66.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB13 on RB28 usage this month, coming off a season-low 4.7 expected half PPR points when the Bills hung 42 points. Well, good news is the Bills are 3rd in projected points this week.

• The Lions have allowed the fewest RB carries and showed much better than expected last week with a bunch of backups.

Isiah Pacheco – 70.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s beginning to separate from Kareem Hunt, who also lost snaps to Samaje Perine. Pacheco had 10.3 expected half PPR points last week in a pretty forgettable Chiefs outing. They’re 10th in projected points this week.

  

Tony Pollard (Questionable) – 87.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• The Bengals are 30th in rushing EPA since October and didn’t have DT Sheldon Rankins last week.

• He’s the RB23 on RB18 usage this month, but in his last four games with Tyjae Spears, Pollard is averaging 8.6 half PPR points. I wonder if they lean towards the younger RB a bit more down the stretch with the Titans season fully Joever.

  

Tyrone Tracy – 60.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the RB14 on RB16 usage this month, coming off a season-high 19.9 expected half PPR outing despite another awful Giants game. It’s a dangerous game to play with the Giants projected for a pathetic 14.0 points at home, but Tracy is good and he’s rarely come off the field at this point.

• The Ravens have allowed the 5th-fewest RB carries and 2nd-fewest rushing yards because of game script (15-point dogs here). He’ll need to win as a pass-catcher most likely. He is at least capable there.

Najee Harris – 72.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Rhamondre Stevenson – 67.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Javonte Williams – 49.5 total yards in Pick’em.

D’Andre Swift (Questionable) – 71.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Sincere McCormick

• He took over the workload before complete garbage time, so McCormick is officially in play as a (bad) flex option. We’ll see if Alexander Mattison (ankle) comes back, but the Raiders own the 1st overall pick and need to evaluate young talent. Pending free agent A-Matt is the opposite. That said, Desmond Ridder is a yikes for me and the Raiders haven’t been able to run the ball with better QB play. They’re 6th-worst in projected points this week.

  

Jaylen Warren – 49.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Tank Bigsby

Nick Chubb

Braelon Allen

Isaiah Davis

Gus Edwards

Travis Etienne

Patrick Taylor

Kimani Vidal

Jerome Ford – 46.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Kendre Miller

Ja’Marr Chase – 86.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Nico Collins – 90.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Puka Nacua – 87.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Justin Jefferson – 83.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – 70.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Lions are 2nd in projected points. This is an eruption spot with the Bills allowing more slot receptions than most teams, thanks to their 2-high shells and zone coverage. Bills S Taylor Rapp (DNPx2) is questionable to play.

• He’s the WR9 on WR21 usage this month. It’s been like that all year.

Jauan Jennings – 68.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’s played 3 normal games recently (no snow and no backup QB). In them, he’s averaging 19.1 half PPR points on 15.5 expected points in a routinely elite efficiency offense. He’s a very real option in a potential shootout with the 49ers 5th in projected points. An inconsistent ground game and the ghosting of Deebo Samuel help his cause.

• Rams CB1 Cobie Durant is out.

Tyreek Hill – 65.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

A.J. Brown – 75.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The wheel is squeaky. There’s nothing about the spreadsheets saying he should be ranked this high, but when the team is ready to force feed an elite player, I’m getting bullish.

Cooper Kupp – 64.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• 49ers SS Malik Mustapha is out and Nick Bosa is questionbale.

• He’s the WR8 on WR16 usage this month. Kupp still has it on tape, and Stafford is balling behind a healthier OL. This is a beautiful situation, even if Nacua has emerged as the primary and an in-motion player. Both can get home.

  

Tee Higgins – 65.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Bengals are 4th in projected points. This is an eruption spot.

• Sometimes Ja’Marr Chase will fully take over, but he’s still the WR12 on WR4 overall usage this month. Joe Burrow is publicly campaigning for him to stay.

Courtland Sutton – 70.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

CeeDee Lamb – 64.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Brian Thomas – 61.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Jaguars are 2nd-worst in projected points, but that’s been the case in other games when he’s seen 16.6 and 16.2 expected half PPR points without Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. Thomas was used from the slot and underneath last week, after looking like one of the league’s best downfield threats the week prior. He’s a super star on film. Hopefully the box score can replicate.

Drake London – 65.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Davante Adams – 66.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the WR7 on WR6 usage this month, and Rodgers looked the best he had all year last week in a difficult matchup.

• The Jaguars are 5th-worst against fantasy WRs.

Terry McLaurin – 65.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Commanders are 8th in projected points, and Noah Brown (ribs/internal) is out for the season.

• The Saints have multiple CBs on IR and traded Marshon Lattimore to Washington. It’s a good individual matchup.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 65.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• This is an unsustainable rate, but it’s a good sign that JSN has found a role with OC Ryan Grubb. He’s averaging 18.8 half PPR points on 11.4 expected in his last 5 games. The target share with DK Metcalf is about even. He’s just been more productive of late.

Mike Evans (Questionable) – 73.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jerry Jeudy – 70.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Cedric Tillman (concussion) returns, as David Njoku (hamstring) is on pace to miss. That’s roughly a wash, although Njoku’s underneath target share is firmly up for grabs. He’s averaged 17.5 half PPR points on 12.6 expected half PPR points with King Jameis. That’s WR3 on WR18 usage this month. Expect some negative regression here.

Calvin Ridley – 63.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Garrett Wilson – 61.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He lit up Jalen Ramsey last week. Over the month, he’s seen WR19 usage with very mixed results.

• The Jaguars are 5th-worst against fantasy WRs.

Malik Nabers – 62.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Giants are projected for 14.25 points this week. That’s fewer points than they are in the spread (16.5-point dogs). I will make the case for Tommy DeVito being better than Drew Lock I guess. Nabers has grinded to a WR32 on WR7 usage this month. He was tackled at the damn 1-yard line last week on an impressive jump ball. His tape looked fine enough despite the hip injury.

• The Ravens are 3rd-worst against fantasy WRs, ranking bottom-five in receptions, yards, and touchdowns.

Ladd McConkey (Questionable)

• This is an eruption spot.

• The Chargers without J.K. Dobbins have abandoned the run. Over the last month removing last week, McConkey is the WR15 on WR22 usage. He’s been phenomenal whenever on the field.

  

DJ Moore – 56.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Adam Thielen – 51.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’s seen 16.0 and 14.8 expected half PPR points in the last two games with an emerging Bryce Young. The rest of the WRs aren’t trusted, and Thielen is winning against man coverage while looking healthy. Thielen saw designed 1st-read targets and was trusted in these man coverage looks. The Panthers’ league-average team total is enough to trust Thielen right now. It’s been WR1 usage recently.

DK Metcalf – 64.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jaylen Waddle – 54.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Things are opening up for Waddle with the Dolphins (smartly) abandoning the run. Last week’s 9 targets on dropbacks with under 2.0 seconds were easily a season-high and reflect their inability to run the ball. Now Waddle quick game targets are their “run play” if you will. As you can see below, the Dolphins are passing the ball in neutral situations at an increasing rate. I like that decision.

  

Jordan Addison – 51.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Vikings are 7th in projected points because they have the best play in football – the Sam Darnold deep ball, which has a 58% success rate when thrown 20+ air yards. Wild! Addison is getting 1-on-1 looks 30+ yards downfield every week because Justin Jefferson deserves more free safety attention. Sometimes he catches them (WR1 or WR2 weeks) and sometimes he doesn’t (WR4 or WR5 weeks). It’s a fun game to play if you can ride the ups-and-downs. There are more ups right now.

Zay Flowers – 58.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Ravens project for the most points this week. This is an eruption spot, especially if Giants slot CB Dru Phillips (DNPx2) is out.

• He’s the WR28 in usage this month with Mark Andrews stepping up.

Jakobi Meyers – 61.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the WR26 on WR13 usage this month.

• The Raiders are 6th-worst in projected points, and Desmond Ridder is a QB downgrade in general. That said, the Falcons are 2nd-worst in fantasy points allowed to WRs. They were just shredded by the Vikings.

Darnell Mooney – 52.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jameson Williams – 49.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Amari Cooper

• He had his best game, by far, in last week’s shootout (18.9 expected half PPR points). They get another one this week against the Lions’ depleted defense. Buffalo is 3rd in projected points. On tape, Cooper has a valuable downfield role, but he is slower than he was even last year. Luckily Josh Allen is willing to throw it up. This is a boom-bust asset.

Khalil Shakir – 56.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Bills are 3rd in projected points, and he’s the WR27 on WR14 usage this month. The bad news is Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid’s expected return. He’s a better player than both right now for what it’s worth.

DeAndre Hopkins – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Chiefs are 10th in projected points, Browns CB2 Greg Newsome just went on IR. This is an eruption spot.

• He’s averaged 11.8 half PPR points on 11.5 expected in his normal games with the Chiefs.

DeVonta Smith – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Keenan Allen – 48.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Bears are 4th-worst in projected points. Last week was Keenan’s lowest usage (6.4 expected half PPR points) since Week 4. The emergence of Rome Odunze would be bad news for him. Truthfully, we need to stop with the Keenan option routes as a first read.

Deebo Samuel – 49.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Cedric Tillman (Questionable)

Marvin Harrison – 55.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Cardinals are 6th in projected points, but he’ll see some CB Christian Gonzalez.

• He’s the WR41 on WR23 usage this month and is still showing pros and cons to his game on tape. The lack of a vertical threat is hurting his production, and I’m surprised he isn’t better at the catch point in traffic. There were a few nice crossing route wins, however.

Josh Downs

Jayden Reed

• The Packers are 10th in projected points, but they are running the ball in neutral situations at the highest rate in the NFL this month. The margins are thin with Reed largely only playing in 3-WR sets as a slot receiver.

  

Xavier Worthy – 38.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Tank Dell – 40.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Elijah Moore

Rome Odunze – 40.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Bears are 4th-worst in projected points, but they at least got Odunze schemed up better chances to win. He had a motion into an end zone TD, a screen, a jump ball TD in the end zone, and a nice conversion on an out route. Some of that wasn’t happening under the previous play caller.

• He’s the WR17 in usage this month thanks to these red zone looks.

Christian Watson – 44.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Keon Coleman (Questionable)

Xavier Legette – 36.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Michael Pittman

Rashod Bateman (Questionable) – 28.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

DeMario Douglas – 38.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Quentin Johnston

Michael Wilson – 30.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Josh Allen – Bills (26.25, +2.5) at DET

Lamar Jackson – Ravens (29.0, -15.0) at NYG

Joe Burrow – Bengals (26.0, -5.0) at TEN

Jayden Daniels – Commanders (25.0, -7.0) at NO

Jalen Hurts – Eagles (23.5, -5.0) vs. PIT

Brock Purdy – 49ers (25.75, -2.5) vs. LAR

Sam Darnold – Vikings (25.25, -7.0) vs. CHI

Kyler Murray – Cardinals (26.0, -5.5) vs. NE

Bo Nix – Broncos (24.0, -4.0) vs. IND

Justin Herbert – Chargers (24.25, -3.0) vst TB

Patrick Mahomes – Chiefs (24.5, -4.0) at CLE

Jared Goff – Lions (28.75, -2.5) vs. BUF

Tua Tagovailoa – Dolphins (22.0, +3.0) at HOU

Matthew Stafford – Rams (23.25, +2.5) at SF

C.J. Stroud – Texans (25.0, -3.0) vs. MIA

Anthony Richardson – Colts (20.0, +4.0) at DEN

Jordan Love – Packers (24.5, -2.5) at SEA

Baker Mayfield – Bucs (21.25, +3.0) at LAC

Jameis Winston – Browns (20.5, +4.0) vs. KC

Drake Maye – Patriots (20.25, +5.5) at ARI

Caleb Williams – Bears (18.25, +7.0) at MIN

Geno Smith – Seahawks (22.0, +2.5) vs. GB

Bryce Young – Panthers (22.75, -2.5) vs. DAL

Kirk Cousins – Falcons (24.25, -4.5) at LV

Aaron Rodgers – Jets (21.5, -3.5) at JAX

Russell Wilson – Steelers (19.0, +5.0) at PHI

Will Levis – Titans (21.0, +5.0) vs. CIN

Cooper Rush – Cowboys (20.25, +2.5) at CAR

Mac Jones – Jaguars (18.0, +3.5) vs. NYJ

Desmond Ridder – Raiders (19.75, +4.5) vs. ATL

Tommy DeVito – Giants (14.0, +15.0) vs. BAL

Jake Haener – Saints (18.0, +7.0) vs. WAS

George Kittle – 57.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Trey McBride – 66.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Brock Bowers

Travis Kelce – 56.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jonnu Smith – 44.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Sam LaPorta – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

David Njoku (Questionable)

Mark Andrews – 35.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Hunter Henry – 44.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Zach Ertz – 37.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Pat Freiermuth – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

T.J. Hockenson – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Tucker Kraft

Jake Ferguson – 38.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Cade Otton

Juwan Johnson – 31.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Dalton Kincaid (Questionable)

Evan Engram (Questionable) – 40.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Cole Kmet – 26.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Dalton Schultz – 29.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Isaiah Likely – 23.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Kyle Pitts

Noah Gray

Grant Calcaterra – 21.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Mike Gesicki