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Puka Nacua – 66.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
The Rams are 1st in WR usage, play at home, and have the 3rd-highest game total (49.0) of the week.
His at-snap motion rate is off the charts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – 77.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Nico Collins – 67.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He was a part-time player in his return (23-of-40 routes), but Collins was a full participant on Wednesday and should be back to full strength this week.
The Texans are projected for the 8th-most points.
Justin Jefferson – 83.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
A.J. Brown – 79.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Cooper Kupp – 72.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
DK Metcalf – 64.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Tyreek Hill – 68.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Terry McLaurin – 60.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
CeeDee Lamb – 65.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Courtland Sutton – 56.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Zay Flowers – 59.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Ladd McConkey – 60.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He’s the WR15 on WR34 usage this month and has impressed me every step of the way coming out of his Post Bye Rookie Bump.
This is an eruption spot against a vulnerable Ravens defense at home.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 56.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He’s the WR3 on WR9 usage this month, with his best game coming without DK Metcalf. With him last week, JSN was still very involved as the primary underneath target. Yahoo’s Nate Tice made a good point that the evelated OL play will help JSN in particular because JSN will be targeted on more 3rd-and-4 plays instead of 3rd-and-12s where Metcalf’s skills are more valuable.
By the way, OC Ryan Grubb is a difference maker.
Malik Nabers
He’s the WR6 in usage this month but sits at WR39 in fantasy points. His efficiency dropped from -4% in the first four weeks to -40% over the last four games. That should even out down the stretch, even with Tommy DeVito. His career YPA is at 6.2 versus Daniel Jones’ 6.5. I expect Nabers to be the easy button for Brian Daboll’s play calling with the backup QB. If Calvin Ridley, CeeDee Lamb, and Brian Thomas can get home in bad offenses, why can’t Nabers?
Calvin Ridley – 58.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He’s the WR11 on WR10 usage this month, even without the called back 50-yard touchdown last week. Ridley is too big to fail (over time) now that he’s getting some screens and at-snap motion calls made for him, in addition to his downfield shots.
Jauan Jennings – 52.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
24.6 half PPR points on 17.3 expected points when he’s been the 49ers’ No. 1/2 receiver this year. He’s the WR7 on WR4 usage this month.
The 49ers are “only” projected for 22.5 points this week and George Kittle is due back, so this isn’t as clean of an environment as it was in previous matchups.
Mike Evans (Questionable) – 55.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He needs to be fully practicing and completely left off the final injury report before having WR1 expectations. That’s the case for all players coming off injury. When healthy, Evans should immediately ball out without Chris Godwin. The Bucs held the fort down without both WRs because OC Liam Coen is a g.
DeAndre Hopkins
George Pickens – 58.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
There are weather concerns (30s degrees, snow/rain, and light wind). The Steelers’ team total has dropped to 20.5 points, between the Colts and Patriots.
He’ll see some CB Denzel Ward with the chance for a full shadow ban.
DeVonta Smith
Marvin Harrison – 54.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
The Cardinals are projected for the 8th-most points.
He’ll see elite athlete CB Tariq Woolen on the perimeter, who has the size to be a problem, too.
Deebo Samuel – 60.5 total yards in Pick’em.
He’s he WR45 on WR17 usage this month since being hospitalized with pneumonia. Samuel has been well below average in my model’s efficiency all year and doesn’t look quite as explosive on tape. That should get better as time passes on. In the meantime, a mini reset is warranted with the 49ers projected for just 22.5 points this week.
DJ Moore – 50.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Tank Dell – 48.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He’s the WR36 on WR31 usage this month, and King Collins is back. Dell is sadly at -18% fantasy points over expected this season while coming off injury. There seems to be fewer post routes to him. That’s where his bread was buttered as a rookie.
The Texans are projected for the 8th-most points.
Jameson Williams
Josh Downs – 59.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He made the absolute most out of his 5 targets last week with Anthony Richardson, who had a league-high 10 designed QB runs last week. Downs’ efficiency can’t be that good every week, but he’s clearly their best all-around receiver. His option route out of the backfield against a poor linebacker was evidence that the coaching staff knows this.
Jayden Reed – 47.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Jakobi Meyers
Xavier Worthy
The Chiefs are projected for the 5th-most points. This is an eruption spot.
It was a point of emphasis early to keep him involved in the designed-touch department, and then he made a great grab against man coverage later on. If Mahomes hadn’t missed him 3 times on deep balls this year, we’d be viewing him very differently in fantasy, even with his own crucial mistakes.
Cedric Tillman – 43.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He’s the WR8 on WR8 usage this month with Jameis Winston. He was missed on a few sideline passes last week, but things have been pretty good. This will be, by far, their biggest challenge yet. The Browns have the 2nd-worst team total with weather in the forecast (30s degrees, rain/snow, light wind). Tillman will see a good corner in Joey Porter with plus-level safeties roaming, too.
Quentin Johnston
He’s coming off a season-high in usage (12.8 expected half PPR points), but QJ is still the WR51 in usage this month and has been reliant on somewhat fluky big plays. This is an elite matchup for him to keep that streak alive, but this is a dangerous game to play in general.
Rome Odunze – 41.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
The Bears were in 3-WR sets on 88% of their Week 11 plays, so Odunze is almost a full-time player now. It’d be nice if some of the designed routes went his way more often, but his talent eventually will show through. He’s the WR27 in usage this month and the new play-caller seemed to find a better rhythm.
Romeo Doubs – 43.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Jordan Addison – 37.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Keenan Allen – 40.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Jaylen Waddle – 41.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Xavier Legette
He’s the WR40 on WR41 usage this month, and now it’s his Post Bye Rookie Bump.
The Panthers just have the lowest team total of the week.
Michael Pittman
Jerry Jeudy – 44.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
The Browns have the 2nd-worst team total with weather in the forecast (30s degrees, rain/snow, light wind).
Christian Watson
The Packers are projected for the 7th-most points.
Last week’s production was so sick, but these were not easy plays being made. Watson remains a volatile WR4 without a floor while playing in a rotation. He’s the WR41 on WR37 usage this month.
Noah Brown – 37.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Kayshon Boutte – 32.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
DeMario Douglas – 38.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Elijah Moore – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Wan’Dale Robinson
Ricky Pearsall
Tyler Lockett – 36.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Alec Pierce
Rashod Bateman
Demarcus Robinson
Darius Slayton
Joshua Palmer
Devaughn Vele
Michael Wilson
Dontayvion Wicks
Jalen Coker
Lamar Jackson – Ravens (27.0, -3.0) at LAC
Jalen Hurts – Eagles (25.5, -2.5) at LAR
Jayden Daniels – Commanders (27.5, -10.5) vs. DAL
Patrick Mahomes – Chiefs (26.75, -10.5) at CAR
Anthony Richardson – Colts (21.25, +7.5) vs. DET
Justin Herbert – Chargers (24.0, +3.0) vs. BAL
Kyler Murray – Cardinals (24.25, -1.0) at SEA
Geno Smith – Seahawks (23.25, +1.0) vs. ARI
Bo Nix – Broncos (23.5, -6.0) at LV
Jared Goff – Lions (29.25, -7.5) at IND
Brock Purdy – 49ers (22.75, +2.0) at GB
Jordan Love – Packers (24.75, -2.0) vs. SF
Tua Tagovailoa – Dolphins (26.75, -7.5) vs. NE
C.J. Stroud – Texans (24.25, -8.0) vs. TEN
Drake Maye – Patriots (19.25, +7.5) at MIA
Matthew Stafford – Rams (23.0, +2.5) vs. PHI
Baker Mayfield – Bucs (24.0, -6.0) at NYG
Sam Darnold – Vikings (21.5, -3.5) at CHI
Caleb Williams – Bears (18.0, +3.5) vs. MIN
Tommy DeVito – Giants (18.0, +6.0) vs. TB
Will Levis – Titans (16.25, +8.0) at HOU
Jameis Winston – Browns (16.0, +3.5) vs. PIT
Russell Wilson – Steelers (20.0, -3.5) at CLE
Bryce Young – Panthers (16.25, +10.5) vs. KC
Gardner Minshew – Raiders (17.5, +6.0) vs. DEN
Cooper Rush – Cowboys (17.5, +10.5) at WAS
Travis Kelce – 58.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Brock Bowers – 64.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Trey McBride – 54.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
George Kittle (Questionable) – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Cade Otton – 50.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
David Njoku – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Hunter Henry – 42.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Sam LaPorta (Questionable)
Will Dissly
Jonnu Smith – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
He had a season-high 15.6 expected half PPR points in Week 11, vaulting him to TE10 usage this month. The volume has paid off, so I get riding the wave.
T.J. Hockenson – 37.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Mark Andrews
Tucker Kraft – 34.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Zach Ertz
Dallas Goedert
Isaiah Likely
Cole Kmet – 24.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Pat Freiermuth – 17.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.
Dalton Schultz
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Chig Okonkwo
AJ Barner
Jake Ferguson (Questionable)
Noah Gray
Davis Allen
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