NFL playoffs: Vikings on upset alert and other predictions for wild-card weekend

Posted by Admin January 10, 2025 NFL

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After 18 weeks, the NFL playoffs are finally here. Over the next three days we’ll have six wild-card games to decide who will move on to the divisional round. The schedule is as follows:

Chargers at Texans (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
Steelers at Ravens (8 p.m. ET Saturday)
Broncos at Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday)
Packers at Eagles (4:30 p.m. ET Sunday)
Commanders at Buccaneers (8 p.m. ET Sunday)
Vikings at Rams (in Arizona at 8 p.m. ET Monday)

With a multitude of storylines to watch, NBC News’ Rohan Nadkarni and Andrew Grief and NBC Sports’ Patrick Daugherty are here to break it down from every angle.

Which game are you most looking forward to?

Nadkarni: Ravens-Steelers. It’s hard not to be romantic about these two teams. I know Pittsburgh is entering the playoffs on a four-game losing streak, but I’m all for a matchup featuring two physical, cold-weather teams that already have a built-in dislike for one another. Add in the funkiness associated with divisional games, I believe we could get a close one even if Baltimore is the much better team on paper.

The Steelers also provide a promising beginning to the narrative arc if this is finally the year Lamar Jackson makes a Super Bowl. Jackson could do worse than beating a formidable AFC North rival in the opening round, not to mention knocking off Russell Wilson, who even in the later part of his career deserves respect for his postseason resumé. Whether it’s an upset or a smash-mouth game between bitter rivals, the spectrum of outcomes here is great.

Greif: Ravens-Steelers, because Pittsburgh has repeatedly been able to frustrate Ravens quarterback and perennial MVP candidate Jackson during his career in ways few others have. Jackson is often saddled with the criticism that he can’t win when it matters, but this year he’s become a more accurate passer than ever and is complemented by a better ground game than ever. The thought of watching Jackson at his most talented and most motivated equals entertaining TV.

Also, Chargers-Texans. Does anyone think either team has a chance to win it all this season? I didn’t think so, either. But if you were to survey NFL executives about which AFC teams have the best chance to contend in the next five years, my guess is the Chargers and Texans would be at the top of the list. This meeting, then, is a chance to see which team is prepared to take that first step. A playoff victory could serve as a springboard for the future.

Daugherty: Buccaneers-Commanders. Both of these teams are designed to win shootouts and have playmakers all over the field. Jayden Daniels is the most exciting young player in football, but Baker Mayfield may have somehow been the most exciting player, period, this season. He was second in the NFL in passing touchdowns and first in turnovers. No matter what, this one is going to be interesting.

Name a team on upset alert

Nadkarni: Minnesota. The Vikings are very slight favorites against the Rams, and I think Minnesota — despite its 14-3 record — is a team I’m definitely nervous about. First off, Los Angeles already beat the Vikings once at home this season, winning 30-20 in Week 7, a game in which Matthew Stafford threw for four touchdowns. And thanks to the NFL’s love of division winners, Minnesota is back on the road to start the playoffs.

Simply put, I’m nervous for Sam Darnold in his first ever postseason action, especially coming off a dispiriting outing against the Lions in the Vikings’ season finale. And though defensive coordinator Brian Flores can concoct a great game plan, there’s nothing Stafford hasn’t seen.

Greif: Philadelphia. After missing the last two games of the regular season with a concussion, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was cleared from concussion protocol and practiced Wednesday, which was a significant boost for the Eagles. But how will he look Sunday against a Packers defense that forced 31 turnovers — fourth-most in the NFL — including 17 interceptions? Philadelphia has won because of its running game but the Packers have been above-average stopping the run this season, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards among playoff teams.

Daugherty: Minnesota. The Vikings were nearly the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but this is a team that lived off one-score victories all year. You have to be good to do that, of course, but there’s an element of luck involved. Also-rans Arizona and Seattle almost beat Minnesota in December. This was a consistent team over the course of the regular season, but it was never as dominant as its gaudy record indicated.

Which coach has the most pressure on them this weekend?

Nadkarni: Ravens coach John Harbaugh. Look, I don’t expect any of the coaches who lose this weekend to be fired. This is a very good playoff field. But Harbaugh is getting another year of MVP-caliber play from Jackson and can’t afford to squander that with a loss to a sliding Steelers squad. Every time Lamar suits up in the playoffs between now and when he wins a Super Bowl, there are going to be questions about whether or not he can get it done in the postseason. And while those struggles (however real or ginned up) are not entirely on Harbaugh, I think he has the most to lose with an early exit.

Greif: Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. His last playoff came on Jan. 15, 2017. This isn’t to suggest that a fifth consecutive playoff loss would endanger Tomlin’s job; he is the rare institution in a league that churns through coaches. And yet, this season has been a microcosm of his 18-season career coaching the Steelers. After making all the right moves early, it’s been a backslide as of late. This fall, the midseason switch from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson looked like a masterstroke at quarterback — until they limped into wild-card weekend with a four-game losing streak.

Daugherty: Bills coach Sean McDermott. Buffalo has done everything but reach the Super Bowl. Merely winning the wild-card round isn’t enough anymore. The pressure can quickly become unbearable when anything short of a title is considered a failure, and many Bills fans believe McDermott is the only thing standing between them and the Lombardi Trophy. If McDermott feels the fear and coaches “not to lose” on Sunday, he could be signing his own pink slip.

Which quarterback will have the biggest performance?

Nadkarni: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels. He’s going to have a great opportunity to put up numbers for the Commanders. The Buccaneers had the fourth-worst passing defense in the NFL in the regular season, and they played in a few shootouts this year. Combine that with Daniels’ rushing ability — and how much Washington relies on him generally — I’m expecting him to have a big performance numbers-wise in a back-and-forth affair.

Greif: Vikings QB Sam Darnold. Yes, Darnold is coming off his worst performance of the season, particularly in the red zone. And yes, the Rams have beaten the Vikings already once this season. But Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell is one of football’s most creative offensive minds, and now he is going against a Rams defense that ranks below the league average in how often it gets sacks, and also ranks 23rd this season in opponent passer rating. Detroit’s aggressive pass rush clearly bothered Darnold in the regular-season finale, but if the Vikings can give him time, he can be effective. Among playoff teams, only Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed a higher average passer rating.

Daugherty: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. He is never the first name that comes to mind for this sort of question, but the Bucs scored under 26 points at home only two times in nine games, while the Commanders have the worst pass defense in the playoff field. Mayfield had nine three-touchdown performances during the regular season, including against the Commanders in Tampa. I like the Bucs to win a high-scoring contest, and Mayfield is going to be the main reason why.

Which team playing this weekend has the best chance to win the Super Bowl?

Nadkarni: The Eagles. Philadelphia has the combination of talent, complimentary football and big-game experience that really nobody else playing this weekend has. The Eagles may not be as exciting as the Lions, but there’s almost too much lack of noise around a team that nearly won a Super Bowl only two years ago.

Greif: The Bills. Though not a No. 1 seed, Buffalo has already beaten the AFC’s No. 1 seed, Kansas City, to break the Chiefs’ 15-game win streak, and their resume also includes a Dec. 15 win on the road against Detroit, the eventual No. 1 seed in the NFC. Few NFL franchises are more snakebitten in the postseason than Buffalo, but if there were ever a season to break Kansas City’s hold on the AFC, this might be it considering how well Josh Allen has played en route to potentially becoming the NFL’s Most Valuable Player.

Daugherty: The Ravens. Football fans outside of Baltimore are probably tired of hearing it, but this might finally be the Ravens’ year. They were arguably second to only Detroit on offense this season, and tightened up significantly on defense down the stretch. Jackson could win his third MVP. Coach Harbaugh has seen everything. You do not want to play the Ravens this postseason.