Welcome to the NFL playoffs. There are 272 regular-season games in the books and 13 big ones left. Here at The MMQB, we’ve spent the week finishing up our coverage of the regular season, including our major awards voting, but now it’s time to move on to the big stuff.

Which two teams will meet in New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX, and what paths will they take to get there? Our writers and editors filled out their brackets and defended their picks. Let’s get to it.

Our pickers:

Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter (X/Twitter)
Conor Orr, senior writer (X/Twitter, BlueSky)
Gilberto Manzano, staff writer (X/Twitter, BlueSky)
Matt Verderame, staff writer (X/Twitter)
Greg Bishop, senior writer (X/Twitter)
Michael Rosenberg, senior writer (X/Twitter, BlueSky)
Andrew Brandt, business of football columnist (X/Twitter)
John Pluym, managing editor (X/Twitter)
Mitch Goldich, senior editor (X/Twitter, BlueSky)

Super Bowl: Lions 34, Bills 27
MVP: Jahmyr Gibbs

The Punic Wars Super Bowl is finally here! And New Orleans will be absolutely electric with two beaten-down fan bases that have waited multiple generations for a Lombardi Trophy. The NFL would be pleased with this one, too, given how you’d get two electric offenses and the chance to showcase a bevy of young players on the grandest stage. Plus we’d all get the story line of Aidan Hutchinson heroically coming back to put his hometown team over the top. Oh, as for the game itself … I think both offenses will be able to move the ball on the defenses in this one, the same way we saw it when they played in December. And the same way the Buffalo Bills picked on a Detroit Lions linebacker deficiency (that’s being shored up by improving health) by throwing to Ty Johnson out of the backfield in that one, I think you’ll see the Lions test the linebackers in a million ways with Jahmyr Gibbs. So give Gibbs the MVP, and the Lions their first NFL title since Bobby Layne was the quarterback and my dad was an 8-year-old in Grosse Pointe, Mich.

As for the rest of my bracket, I really think the reimagination of the Packers’ offense (with a more physical edge), if Jordan Love can rekindle the hot hand he found last January, makes them a dangerous lower-seeded threat. Add their revitalized defense to the equation, and if there’s a Cinderella somewhere, I think the Green Bay Packers could be it, with the Los Angeles Chargers, to me, looming as a similarly dangerous underdog in the AFC bracket.

Super Bowl: Lions 33, Chiefs 28
MVP: Jared Goff

I liked Lions-Bengals at the outset of the season, but the late timing of Cincinnati’s winning streak prevented us from seeing what would’ve been a truly electric Super Bowl. Lions-Chiefs is a nice runner-up, pairing an incredibly physical Detroit defense against a Kansas City offense that stunned the playoff field last year with its own brand of counter-physicality against the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs. Playing the Chiefs is a bit like fighting Floyd Mayweather at this point: They are so tactically aware of everything, and you have to bring the fight to them in order to succeed. I predict the Lions, like they did in Week 18 against the Minnesota Vikings, will slug first and slug often in a game they will not leave to chance. Patrick Mahomes will mount a late comeback, but it’ll be a three-touchdown performance from Jared Goff that earns the Lions an ultra-cathartic, franchise-changing Super Bowl victory. 

After the game, I predict that countless fans will flood SI.com and the Sports Illustrated Store to read the magazine’s football preview issue—digitally or in hard copy—in which Greg Bishop and I told the tale of a city and a team healing together alongside the rehabilitation of an iconic local church and its determined pastor. 

The playoffs will feature a handful of upsets, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stunning the Philadelphia Eagles for a second time this season to work their way into the NFC championship game against a Lions team they also beat earlier in the year. The Los Angeles Rams will also edge the shell-shocked Vikings in the playoffs in one of those very bizarre games that in no way leaves us with the feeling of Vikings inferiority but instead features a cosmic string of fumbles, doinked field goals and other uncontrollable happenings that bounce the Rams into the second round.

The Ravens against the Buffalo Bills was the hardest single matchup to pick, but I am glad we’ll get a definitive MVP showdown. This is a massive opportunity for Lamar Jackson to escape some damning postseason narratives about his play in a high-stakes, head-to-head matchup with Josh Allen.

Super Bowl: Chiefs 30, Lions 28
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

The Ravens and Bills have closed the gap on the Chiefs, but I just don’t see Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen doing enough to win a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium in late January. The story lines of Jackson having Derrick Henry in the postseason and Allen having an elite offense in a career season went out the window the second the Chiefs locked down the No. 1 seed. 

Remember when many made a big deal of the Chiefs having a sluggish passing attack? Sounds pretty silly now for a team that won 15 of its first 16 games before resting everyone in the regular-season finale. Now the Ravens and Bills have to beat each other up for the right to battle the Chiefs, who could face a thin Los Angeles Chargers group they have already defeated twice this season. Patrick Mahomes’s offense isn’t as explosive as Jackson’s or Allen’s, but Kansas City has the more complete team, one that thrives in situational football.

Over in the NFC, the Lions answered plenty of questions regarding their shorthanded defense after pummeling Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson during the Week 18 showdown against. the Vikings. Dan Campbell’s crew is well-positioned to make the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance, but I do worry about a potential NFC title game against the Eagles. Saquon Barkley would make Detroit pay if defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn ran as many light boxes as he did last week against Minnesota. Philadelphia also has the defense to frustrate Jared Goff, who’s had his shaky moments this season, including the five interceptions in Houston. But coaching matters in the postseason and it’s hard to go against the trio of Campbell, Glenn and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.

As for some Super Bowl LIX analysis, I don’t have much to offer besides saying I’m done waiting for fatigue to catch up to the Chiefs. They’re again saving their best performances for last and are well equipped to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

Super Bowl: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24
MVP: Patrick Mahomes

At this point, picking against the Chiefs can be the errand of someone else. Kansas City was a league-best 15–2 this season and beat every playoff team in the AFC field save for the Bills. However, if the Chiefs see Buffalo again, it’ll be at Arrowhead Stadium this time.

For me, the bigger question is who will face Kansas City in the AFC championship game? Should the Bills and Ravens advance out of the wild-card round as expected, they’ll square off the following weekend at Highmark Stadium. While Buffalo will almost certainly be favored, can the Bills stop Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson this time around? When Baltimore beat Buffalo 35–10 in Week 4, that duo combined for 419 yards and four touchdowns. Only a fool would expect a repeat of that, but even if Baltimore comes close, it’ll win.

In the NFC, the unknown is whether the Lions can continue to win against the league’s best with half of its defense on the shelf. Detroit has done an admirable job surviving the losses of Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, Carlton Davis III and others, but will it catch up to Dan Campbell’s squad at some point?

If it does, bet on the Eagles being the team that can overwhelm Detroit. Philadelphia has a 2,000-yard back in Saquon Barkley and a host of weapons in receivers DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, and tight end Dallas Goedert. Combined with the Eagles having a top-five defense in a host of categories, and they appear to be a major problem for the banged-up Lions.

Ultimately, we could see a repeat of Super Bowl LVII and the classic that game was. The Chiefs began their quest for a three-peat that night, winning 38–35 in Glendale, Ariz. They’ll complete it in New Orleans, once again on a last-second field goal by Harrison Butker.

Super Bowl: Chiefs 27, Vikings 21
MVP: Xavier Worthy

Let’s start with this: wild playoff bracket (he says, once again, this year). In the AFC, I liked chalk picks, mostly. I did agonize for at least a minute—a lifetime in such exercises—on the conference championship game there. My heart wants to pick Buffalo. My heart wants an All-Underdog Super Bowl, where narratives promise to be upended (!) and someone, many someones, will surely cry (!). That would be Bills-Lions. Alas, that’s not what my head tells me. The Chiefs will fend off the rival they also take the football from, once more.

The NFC presents a far more frenetic picture. I picked all upsets this weekend, but I believe it’s hard to call any of those “upsets.” At worst, after Jalen Hurts’s concussion woes, they’re all pick ’em games. The only one I briefly hesitated on was Vikings-Rams. But if the Vikings get through that one, I see them as tested, in every possible way; as resilient as the Lions (whom I have beating Green Bay in a game where the Packers wish they were playing anyone else) and I see those Vikings as healthier than the Lions. Yes, I saw the regular-season finale. Yes, I still see Minnesota winning the rematch. Here’s why: Detroit’s season of attrition will finally catch up to these no-matter-what-we-dominate Lions. Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson will turn that game into a personal display of excellence in pairs. There’s no more sand in the hourglass, in other words, and while Detroit has more talent on its roster, after the attrition, that gap has closed significantly or evened.

Why, then, pick against the Vikings in the Super Bowl? Because … Patrick Mahomes. Because … NFL history, that three-peat, and the season that was in Kansas City, where an injury-riddled roster threw players in and out of games but Chiefs always found a way to win. The Super Bowl—where they’ll need to do just that once more—will be the game that defines the season that defied easy defining in Kansas City. It’s the culmination of a million things, starting with Mahomes, Andy Reid and Brett Veach, with the Hunt family and with the way the Chiefs operate, which is distinct in modern professional football. I like a low-scoring game in that Super Bowl, which is another reason I like Mahomes.

My heart hopes my head is wrong, though.

Super Bowl: Ravens 31, Eagles 23
MVP: Lamar Jackson

I’m selling high on the Vikings after their 14–3 regular season. Love Kevin O’Connell, love the defense, don’t love Sam Darnold winning a road playoff game against a rested Rams team with a great coach and a much better quarterback. The Houston Texans get a home game because they won the worst division in the NFL, but they have beaten one playoff team all year (the Bills in October) and somehow lost to the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans. Jim Harbaugh has won at least one playoff game in each of his three postseasons; he’ll make it four (which still puts him behind brother John, who won a playoff game in his first six tries.)

Last year, the Ravens entered the playoffs looking like the league’s best team, only to lose to Patrick Mahomes. It was a reminder that nobody is as dominant as we might think. I think when everybody is healthy, the Lions are the best team in the league, but their decimated defensive line means the Eagles are a tough matchup for them. Philly ran for as many first downs as any team in the league, and though the Eagles’ passing game has been spotty, their weapons (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goedert) are still impressive. For me, it comes down to this: If Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill are sidelined, I think the Eagles’ defense is more likely to make stops against the Lions’ offense than the other way around.

Do I feel good about picking against Mahomes in the AFC? Of course not. But I think this Ravens team is built for January. For all the talk about Lamar Jackson’s playoff record, keep this in mind: Jackson has played in six playoff games. If you remove Jackson from the box scores, the Ravens’ leading rusher in those games ran for 23, 22, 43, 42, 66 and 20 yards. Jackson can do everything, but he shouldn’t have to do everything—and this year, he won’t, because he has Derrick Henry. Teams facing the Ravens now face three dynamic offensive components: Jackson’s passing, Jackson’s running and Henry’s running. No matter how defenses commit their resources, the Ravens have an answer.

Super Bowl: Ravens 33, Eagles 27
MVP: Lamar Jackson

In August, I picked a Super Bowl between the Ravens and the Packers. I am not venturing far from that now. I also picked an NFC championship between the Eagles and the Packers, a matchup four months ago in Brazil. And while I understand the Eagles being a favorite after the Packers had a rough season-ending game, I was still torn making the call of the Eagles over the Packers, as I think Green Bay will surprise many in keeping the game close and/or even winning. And if they do—realizing I did not pick them—I would be back to my Ravens-Packers Super Bowl pick from the summer.

In the AFC, I continue to believe it’s the Ravens’ time. Lamar is Lamar, but there is much more than him, more than they’ve had in this long run. They are a team now built for the playoffs with the late-game pounding from Derrick Henry and a defense rounding into form at the right time. As for the other AFC contenders, I still see things I don’t like from the Bills and Chiefs, too many games where their game plan is, Josh (or Patrick): Save us! And I like the Chargers to surprise us all.

In the NFC, I apologize to Lions fans: I just don’t see it. I get the record; I get the rousing Vikings win, but I don’t see their defense being sustainable. And if a rematch were to happen with the Vikings, I see a different outcome. But the Eagles are the most talented team, assuming a nonconcussed Hurts, and I’m betting on talent. Simply, they have no weaknesses.

Teams that are 100 miles apart will meet in New Orleans for the Super Bowl, with the Ravens eeking out a slight win over the Eagles.

Super Bowl: Lions 31, Chiefs 21
MVP: Jared Goff

I picked the Lions four months ago and I’m not changing now, except for the score. They’re going to win the Super Bowl by an even wider margin than I initially thought. Detroit is a machine offensively and it’s physical enough on defense to hold off any threat in the NFC playoffs, as well as in the Super Bowl.

I love what Dan Campbell has built in Detroit. The Lions are fast and explosive, they play with a chip on their shoulders and after a painful history, they’re ready to advance to their first Super Bowl. I know Sean McVay gave up on Jared Goff a few years ago, but Goff has been great this season except for his five-pick game against the Texans, which the Lions still won.

Goff has made the most of a dynamic group of playmakers on offense and actually, I think they’re better with Jahmyr Gibbs having an even bigger role with David Montgomery out with a sprained MCL. Montgomery may return during the playoffs, but not necessarily at 100%. By the way, I had Gibbs winning Offensive Player of the Year in our season preview. Saquon Barkley will take home that award, but Gibbs has been tremendous with 1,412 yards rushing (I predicted he’d have 1,500), 20 touchdowns (I had him in double digits) and 52 receptions (I predicted 60).

Lastly, I had Campbell winning Coach of the Year and after Sunday night’s beatdown of the Vikings, there shouldn’t be any doubt about who wins that award.

Super Bowl: Ravens 30, Lions 24
MVP: Lamar Jackson

I picked the Ravens in September, and I still think it’s their time. At their best, they are good enough to beat anyone. That was true even when they dropped a few games they should have won earlier in the year. But the defensive improvement over the final third of the season has me comfortable sticking with them.

Picking them is simply a leap of faith that they will play the way we all know they can at the time it matters most. But when I watch this operation, I simply have to believe that Lamar Jackson will get one eventually. And I do think this could be the year.

I think the Chiefs are vulnerable for all the reasons that have been thoroughly dissected all year. As I said in September, it’s hard to go on a run this long without being snakebitten at some point. Whenever I watch them, I expect they’ll escape any sort of jam and find a way, but it’s hard to win three in a row like that. If you give me Chiefs vs. the field, I’d definitely take the field. So I’ll try to predict where that loss is coming from.

In the NFC, I’m going with the favorites, even if the Lions look less overwhelmingly like a favorite than they did before a tidal wave of injuries. The NFC is a beautiful mess, even though I know my picks look pretty chalky. But I could see the Eagles losing to the Buccaneers in the divisional round. I could see the Rams or the Vikings going to the NFC championship game. Very little would shock me. And I think I might have sprinkled in more chaos if not for the way Detroit won in Week 18. That was a put all fears to bed type of win in a big spot. The Lions only need to win two home games to advance to the Super Bowl, and I think they will. 

But once they get to the big game, I’ll take Jackson. I’ll take John Harbaugh’s experience. I’ll take the healthier team hitting its stride on both sides of the ball. I’ll take an offense good enough to hang in a shootout and a defense good enough to get the one timely stop that decides the season.