NFL Playoff Picture: Surprising Broncos, Commanders surge; Cowboys take hit

It’s not quite halfway through the season yet, but the NFL’s playoff picture is beginning to take shape.

At least that’s true at the top of the standings where the Chiefs, Texans, Lions, Steelers, Bills and even the surprising Commanders seem well on their way to a postseason berth. Everyone else is just jockeying for position right now before what could be a wild playoff scramble in the second half.

Here’s a look at the NFL playoff picture, including which teams have the best postseason probability, following Week 8:

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (6-1)

There just isn’t a better or more complete team in the NFL right now than the Lions. And they are clicking on all cylinders after routing the Tennessee Titans. No team has a better 1-2 punch at running back than David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff has been near flawless at quarterback. They’ve averaged 43 points in their last four games. They will be tough to beat, and they know it.

Playoff probability: 94%

2. Washington Commanders (6-2)

If anyone doesn’t believe in Jayden Daniels now, nothing will convince them. He pulled a win out of a sure defeat on Sunday with a final-play, 52-yard Hail Mary to Noah Brown. He also badly outplayed Caleb Williams, who was picked one spot ahead of him in the draft, completing 21 of 38 passes for 326 yards and a touchdown and running eight times for 52 yards. He’s for real, and so, apparently, are the Commanders. They’ve got all the ingredients to stay in the race.

Playoff probability: 71%

3. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)

They’ve flipped the division by now beating the Bucs twice in the last four weeks — albeit barely each time. Kirk Cousins certainly has Tampa’s number since he threw for 785 yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception in those two games. Now if he and the offense can do that in some of their other games, they’ll really have something going.

Playoff probability: 77%

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

It was a good sign that their offense finally kicked into gear in their 28-27 win in Miami, with QB Kyler Murray having his best game (307 yards, 2 TDs) and the offense putting up its most points since Week 2. They’re lucky they’re in a division where no one is on track yet. They’ve won 3 of 4, but haven’t looked impressive doing it. And their defense is still a big problem.

Playoff probability: 32%

5. Green Bay Packers (6-2)

Yes, Malik Willis led the Packers to a win over the Jaguars in relief, but they know their long-term fortunes depend on the status of QB Jordan Love. He suffered a groin injury early on Sunday and played about as long as he could, completing 14 of 22 passes for 196 yards and an interception. But he was pulled in the third quarter and Green Bay now will wait to see how long he’s out.

Playoff probability: 68%

6. Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

They’ve lost two in a row since their 5-0 start, which is alarming since the last time they started 5-0 (in 2016) they finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs. In fairness to them, the past two weeks have been tough. They barely lost to the Lions (31-29) and then lost in L.A. just as the Rams got back receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The schedule is about to get a lot easier.

Playoff probability: 83%

7. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)

After an erratic start to their season, they’ve started to finally look right in the past two weeks. Their defense has started to play better under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. And new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has leaned on their strong ground game. Even quarterback Jalen Hurts looks like his old self. He and Saquon Barkley are proving to be the dynamic duo everyone expected. They are right on the heels of the upstart Commanders after two straight post-bye wins.

Playoff probability: 77%

On the outside looking in: The Chicago Bears (4-3) got a bad beat, falling in Washington on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. They’ve got a good enough defense to compete, as long as rookie QB Caleb Williams plays better than he did on Sunday (10 of 24, 131 yards). … The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) are on fire offensively, even in their loss to Atlanta on Sunday. But they’ve lost Chris Godwin for the season and Mike Evans for a month, and without their top two WRs it could be a struggle. … It’s a testament to Kyle Shanahan and their defense that despite all their injuries the San Francisco 49ers (4-4) are still tied for first in the NFC West. But they’ll need RB Christian McCaffrey back soon, especially with Brandon Aiyuk out for the year. … The Seattle Seahawks (4-4) looked terrible against the Bills and are now headed in the wrong direction, having lost 4 of their last 5. … The Los Angeles Rams (3-4) could be lurking as a dangerous team now that they’ve gotten injured receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in their lineup. … The Dallas Cowboys (3-4), meanwhile, don’t look dangerous at all. The only good thing about their team is the Dak Prescott–CeeDee Lamb connection, and that might not be good enough.

Josh Jacobs on rising up after Jordan Love goes down vs. Jaguars

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

They don’t look like the juggernaut they used to be, they could use a No. 1 receiver and something still looks off with Travis Kelce. But they’re undefeated and have a top 10 defense and offense, so doubt them at your own risk. They’ve still got Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, and that’s really more than enough to make them the Super Bowl favorites until someone knocks them off.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Houston Texans (6-2)

The Texans got some much-needed separation in the AFC South by outstating the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. They don’t make things easy on themselves, though. They are such a well-balanced offense, backed by a strong defense, but their red zone struggles nearly cost them. Still, C.J. Stroud is as good as he was as a rookie and the Texans have won four of five.

Playoff probability: 97%

3. Buffalo Bills (6-2)

They are what they have been for several years now — a terrific team capable of blowing out anyone thanks in large part to an MVP-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. They seem to have put a bad three-game road trip behind them (blown out in Baltimore, narrow loss at Houston, narrow win in New York against the Jets). They’ve also opened up space in the AFC East. But all eyes are on their huge test at home against the Chiefs in three weeks.

Playoff probability: 96%

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)

Give Mike Tomlin credit. His controversial decision to start QB Russell Wilson and bench Justin Fields sure gave their offense a jolt last week. And they’ve got a great chance of continuing their momentum on Monday night at home against the New York Giants. They’ve won two straight now, but it’s clear their fate depends on how well this quarterback move works out.

Playoff probability: 85%

5. Denver Broncos (5-3)

Nobody’s done a better coaching job in the NFL this season than Sean Payton, who somehow got the Broncos to win five of six after an 0-2 start. They’re doing it with one of the NFL’s best defenses. But don’t look now: Rookie QB Bo Nix just had the best game of his career (28 of 37, 284 yards, 3 touchdowns). He’s also thrown only one interception in his last six starts. The competition goes way up the next two games, though.

Playoff probability: 63%

6. Baltimore Ravens (5-3)

The disappointing loss in Cleveland on Sunday slowed what had been the NFL’s most impressive roll — five straight victories after their 0-2 start. It might be just a temporary setback, though. For some reason, the Ravens only handed the ball to Derrick Henry 11 times in this game (73 yards). The last five games should have proved to them that when he gets going, so do they.

Playoff probability: 87%

7. Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)

The Chargers got themselves into temporary playoff position with a win over the decimated New Orleans Saints. But they’re not going to stay there long if they can’t get their offense going. Despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback, they’ve somehow averaged just 16.8 points over the last five games and have only topped 23 twice. That won’t do in an offensive league.

Playoff probability: 68%

Teams on the outside looking in: The Indianapolis Colts (4-4) slipped out of the top 7 when they just missed taking down the Houston Texans on Sunday. They won’t catch the Texans in the AFC South and they won’t stay in the playoff race without some offensive improvements. QB Anthony Richardson is struggling and their offense has averaged just 285.3 yards over the last three games. … The Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) have offensive issues too. After getting blown out by the Eagles on Sunday, they’ve averaged just 269 yards and 18 points the last three weeks — embarrassing for a team with QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase. But clearly, they’re capable of more, which makes them dangerous.

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Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.