The Detroit Lions finally got some help in the playoff race. Obviously, Detroit is one of four NFC teams who have already punched their postseason ticket, but—just like every other NFC division—the NFC North has still yet to be decided.

Earlier this week, we detailed every possible seeding scenario based on outcomes over the next two weeks, but what are the chances the Lions win the division? What are the odds they clinch the No. 1 seed and earn a first-round bye? We’re going to dig into the probabilities in this post, according to several playoff odds models.

But before we do, let’s look at the NFC playoff picture.

NFC North:

1. Lions: 13-2
2. Vikings: 13-2
3. Packers: 11-4 — eliminated from NFC North contention
4. Bears: 4-11 — eliminated from NFC North contention

The NFC North is down to just two teams now: the Lions and Vikings. If the Vikings beat the Packers this week, then the division will be decided in the final week of the season, when Detroit and Minnesota face off. You can bet if that game is for the division, it’ll be the “Sunday Night Football” game that closes out the regular season.

If both teams win this week, then the loser of Week 18 will be the first 14-win team in NFL history to lose their division.

NFC playoff race:

1. Lions: 13-2 – clinched playoff spot
2. Eagles: 12-3 – clinched playoff spot
3. Rams: 9-6
4. Falcons: 8-7

Wild Card race (top three advance)

5. Vikings: 13-2 – clinched playoff spot
6. Packers: 11-4 – clinched playoff spot
7. Commanders: 10-5
8. Buccaneers: 8-7
9. Seahawks: 8-7

Eliminated:

Cowboys: 7-8
Cardinals: 7-8
49ers: 6-9
Saints: 5-10
Bears: 4-11
Panthers: 4-11
Giants: 2-13

As noted before, no NFC division has been decided yet, although the Eagles are a win away from clinching the East. But the South, West, and North are still up for grabs. For the teams in the South and West, it’s most likely win the division or bust out of the playoffs completely.

Lions playoff seeding odds

Odds to win the NFC North:

Note: Change in odds are compared to where they stood last week (Dec. 11):

NYT: 74% (-8%)
DVOA: 76.7% (+1.8%)
ESPN: 77.3% (+0.4%)
Washington Post: 70% (-1%)

Despite winning on Sunday, the Lions’ odds to win the division are basically unchanged from last week. That’s because the Vikings also won. Essentially, the Lions’ magic number (combination of Lions wins and Vikings losses) is two. If the Vikings lose and Lions win this week, the division is Detroit’s. Any other Week 17 outcome and the NFC North will be decided in Week 18.

Odds to win the NFC’s No. 1 seed

NYT: 74% (+24%)
DVOA: 76.7% (+28.9%)
ESPN: 77.3% (+23.5%)
Washington Post: 70% (+27%)

Obviously, the Lions’ odds of winning the conference skyrocketed after Detroit’s win over Chicago and the Eagles’ loss to the Commanders. Philly now has just about a 6-10% chance to earn a first-round bye. Most outcomes feature either the Vikings or Lions winning the one seed.

You may notice that the Lions’ odds to win the division are the exact same as their odds to win the No. 1 seed. That’s because there’s only one very implausible scenario in which the Lions win the division, but don’t earn the No. 1 seed:

• Lions lose to 49ers
• Vikings lose to Packers
• Lions and Vikings tie
• Eagles beat the Cowboys and Giants

In this scenario, the Lions still win the NFC North, but fall behind the Eagles for the No. 2 seed in the NFC.