The NFL’s Wild Card Round has kicked off, and the league’s best of the best have started their quest for the Lombardi Trophy. The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers started things off with a back-and-forth AFC battle between the fourth and fifth seeds.
Let’s look at the results from Wild Card Weekend and what that means regarding the 2024 NFL playoff bracket. Note that the NFL reseeds the playoffs after each round, so the matchups can change depending on the results of the remaining Wild Card games.
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
6. Washington Commanders (12-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) – Eliminated
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) – Eliminated
7. Denver Broncos (10-7)
The first game of the NFL Wild Card Round did not disappoint. Yes, it wasn’t the high-scoring affair some thought it would be, but it was a close, hard-fought battle nonetheless.
The first half was pretty much all Chargers, right up until the final drive, where the Texans marched down the field with some big chunk plays. The Texans recorded the fifth 99-yard drive in the playoffs since 2001 to take a 7-6 lead. That was after having just 70 total yards through their first five drives.
After that drive, the wheels fell off for the Chargers. The second half was plagued by Justin Herbert’s interceptions and Nico Collins’ breakout. Collins put up the most receiving yards ever by a Texans player in a postseason game. DeAndre Hopkins had 118 against the Chiefs in the 2019 Divisional Round, Andre Johnson had 111 in the 2011 Divisional Round game (at Ravens), and Keke Coutee 110 in the 2018 Wild Card game (vs. Indianapolis Colts).
Herbert threw three interceptions in his first 27 attempts after throwing just three in 504 attempts during the regular season. Herbert is the second QB since 2000 to qualify for the passing leaderboard and throw as many interceptions in a playoff game as he did the whole regular season. The other was 2016 Tom Brady, who obviously missed four games. Brady threw two picks in 12 games and then two picks in the playoff opener (also vs. the Texans).
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Texans’ most likely opponent is Kansas City. With both the No. 2-seed Buffalo Bills and No. 3-seed Baltimore Ravens favored to win, Houston would be the lowest remaining seed in the AFC and head to Arrowhead.
There is a 45.2% chance that the Texans play their Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 26.3% chance of playing in Baltimore, with a game in Buffalo at 18.0%, and then a game in Houston against the Steelers at 10.5%.
In the third matchup between these two teams this season, the Ravens continued what they accomplished the last time around and defeated Russell Wilson and co. It was a team effort, with both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry gashing the Steelers’ defense.
Henry became the first player over 30 years of age to have four games in a single season with 130 rushing yards and multiple rushing scores. He entered the night tied with Priest Holmes (2004) for the most such games.
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The Steelers have now lost their sixth consecutive postseason matchup. Prior to this stretch, they had never lost more than three in a row.
Only Marvin Lewis now has a longer losing streak all-time than Mike Tomlin.
A whopping 28 coaches have won a playoff game since Tomlin’s last win.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Ravens’ most likely opponent is the Buffalo Bills. With the No. 2 seed favored to beat the Broncos at home (61.8%), the Ravens and Bills would be the two middle seeds remaining and face off in the Divisional Round.
There is a 61.8% chance that the Ravens play their Divisional Round game in Buffalo. The Ravens have a 38.2% chance of hosting the No. 4 seed Houston Texans.
As outlined above, the Ravens would face the second-seeded Bills if Buffalo wins at home against Denver. At that point, the Texans’ win over the Chargers would have been irrelevant to Baltimore’s Divisional Round destination.
If the Broncos pull off the road upset, Baltimore will face the Texans. That’s due to Denver being the lowest-seeded team in the AFC field, which means the Broncos would automatically draw the two-time defending champion Chiefs.
A total of 14 teams make the NFL playoffs. This includes seven teams from the American Football Conference (AFC) and seven from the National Football Conference (NFC).
Each of the four division champions from the two conferences automatically earns a bid, followed by three Wild Card teams from each conference.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The three Wild Card spots in each conference are earned by the top three teams by record who did not win their respective divisions. To break ties between teams with equal records that are vying for a Wild Card spot, the NFL employs a set of tiebreaking procedures.
There are separate 12-step processes for breaking ties between two teams and ties between three or more teams. Only if the first 11 steps are exhausted does the NFL resort to a coin toss to decide which team makes the playoffs. Generally, ties are broken within the first five steps.
Teams are seeded Nos. 1 through 7 in each conference, with the division winners receiving seed Nos. 1 through 4, with the three Wild Card teams receiving seed Nos. 5 through 7.
The division winners are seeded according to record, with the best record receiving the top seed, and the same is true of Wild Card teams.
The league uses the same playoff tiebreaking procedures to break ties for seeds.
The NFL’s playoff bracket is divided between the AFC and NFC. There are four rounds: Wild Card Weekend, the Divisional Round, Conference Championship Weekend, and the Super Bowl.
During Wild Card Weekend, the No. 2 seed faces the No. 7 seed, the No. 3 seed faces the No. 6 seed, and the No. 4 seed faces the No. 5 seed in each conference. In each subsequent round, the highest remaining seed faces the lowest remaining seed, and so on.
The No. 1 seed receives a first-round bye. In this format, the No. 7 seed, if they win on Wild Card Weekend, automatically goes to the top seed on the road. The same is said if the No. 6 seed wins and the No. 7 seed is eliminated.
In the Super Bowl, the winning teams from each conference face off to battle for the Lombardi Trophy.
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