The NFL Week 8 schedule is a full one with no teams on bye week. Football action kicked off Thursday night in Los Angeles where the Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings 30-20. That snapped an 0-15 SU/ATS run by home underdogs since the start of Week 5. FanDuel reported more than 88% of spread bets and 75% of moneyline bets were on the Vikings, making it a profitable night for leading online sportsbooks. But bettors are still supporting road favorites like the Vikings with seven more on Sunday, Oct. 27.
There are five division games on Sunday, and four of those teams are road favorites. A season-high six games features point spread of 7 points or higher, including division road favorites New York Jets (-7), Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) and Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5).
The other two division games are first place battles between winning NFL teams. The Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3) in the NFC South and Indianapolis Colts (4-3) at Houston Texans (5-2) in the AFC South kickoff the early Sunday action. The late Sunday window includes the Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washington Commanders (5-2) and interconference clash Buffalo Bills (5-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3) in a battle of first place teams with NFL weather reporting likely rain showers in Seattle with winds up to 20 miles per hour.
NFL Week 8 Odds
Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Bet types, odds and terms with listed point spreads on favorites.
Arizona at Miami (-4.5), game total O/U 46.5 points
New York Jets (-7) at New England, 41.5
Philadelphia at Cincinnati (-2.5), 47.5
Green Bay (-3.5) at Jacksonville, 49.5
Atlanta (-2.5) at Tampa Bay, 45.5
Baltimore (-8.5) at Cleveland, 44.5
Indianapolis at Houston (-4.5), 45.5
Tennessee at Detroit (-11.5), 44.5
New Orleans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7), 40.5
Buffalo (-3) at Seattle, 47.5
Chicago (-3) at Washington, 43.5
Carolina at Denver (-10.5), 41.5
Kansas City (9.5) at Las Vegas, 41.5
Dallas at San Francisco (4.5), 47.5 SNF
New York Giants at Pittsburgh (-5.5), 36.5 MNF
Following Sunday’s late afternoon games including the division duel betwen the undefeated Chiefs (6-0) and Raiders (2-5) in Las Vegas, the Sunday Night Football feature is the Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4) in a clash of preseason NFC favorites to reach the Super Bowl who both had season win totals above 10.
“Early games will set the tone for Sunday. The Lions, Ravens and Packers are popular bets,” BetMGM trading team reports. However, the Bears, Ravens and Jaguars (vs. Packers) are taking the most spread money (handle), indicating bigger bets or more professional money on those teams.
The most bet over/under game totals are Over Falcons-Buccaneers, Titans-Lions and Bears-Commanders and Under Ravens-Browns, Bills-Seahawks and Cowboys-49ers with more live betting action in the Sunday Night Football feature.
Falcons-Buccaneers
This is a rematch of the Week 5 Falcons-Bucs engaging and entertaining contest won in overtime by the Falcons, 36-30.
Respected sports handicapper and advanced model statistics guru Dr. Bob Sports provided additional stats and notes on the Falcons-Buccaneers and Bears-Commanders matchups with additional information you can bet on from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
The Buccaneers lost wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last Monday night. Godwin is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (8th) and Evans has a 58% success rate (15th). Tampa Bay’s offense is deserving of a 2-point downgrade by our metrics.
But Tampa Bay ranks first in screen EPA per play and is averaging 7.4 yards on such plays. Bucs running backs Sean Tucker and Rachasd White both have notched solid PFF receiving grades of at least 73.8.
Atlanta’s defense might be getting starting LB Troy Anderson back in uniform and they are already allowing only a 32% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (2nd). Atlanta’s defense has been gashed through the air this year, sitting 25th in passing EPA per play.
The Buccaneers’ defense could be without two starting cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith. Backups Tyrek Funderburk and Tavierre Thomas are likely to struggle against Falcons WR Drake London, who has a 62% success rate (5th).
Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering a 56% success rate to opposing tight ends and they will struggle with TE Kyle Pitts, who is averaging 1.54 yards per route run (6th) coming off a season-high target share of 25% last week.
Atlanta LG Matthew Bergeron exited the last game with a neck/head injury and was replaced by Kyle Hinton, who surrendered a 12% pressure rate.
Further complications for Kirk Cousins arise on the right side as Buccaneers edge rusher Yaya Diaby has 28 pressures (8th) and will line up across from RT Kaleb McGary, who ranks 7th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.
Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing 5.3 yards per rush (30th) and I expect the Falcons to focus on the ground game in a more conservative approach after Cousins threw two interceptions while also losing a fumble in last week’s defeat.
This game has major playoff implications with both teams about 75% to make the postseason with a win and dropping to 35% with a loss. Neither team will want to make the costly mistake, which will likely lead to more running in this second meeting of a divisional rivals.
Our model makes Atlanta a 1.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.9 points.
Bears-Commanders
Quarterback Marcus Mariota stepped in for Jayden Daniels last week and Washington’s offense didn’t miss a beat. Mariota averaged 8.4 yards per pass play.
Of course, Mariota was facing a Panthers’ defense that is surrendering 0.16 EPA/play (31st) and this week will have a much tougher test versus a Bears defense allowing -0.14 EPA/play (3rd).
The Commanders have a 45% rush success rate (5th) but the backup QB isn’t going to get support from his ground game as Chicago is rated 4th in rush defense according to our metrics.
Washington WR Terry McLaurin is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (9th) but he will be shut down by CB Jaylon Johnson, who is allowing just 0.55 yards per cover snap (5th).
The Commanders are without starting DT Jonathan Allen and starting edge defender Dorance Armstrong, but I think they’ll be able to muster some pressure on Caleb Williams regardless. Bears right guards Matt Pryor and Nate Davis have combined to surrender 3 sacks and they will struggle to contain interior defender Daron Payne, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.
Chicago RB D’Andre Swift is averaging 1.47 yards per route run (7th) but the screen game will be limited, as Washington’s defense is conceding -0.35 EPA/target to opposing running backs (3rd).
Instead, Williams will look for wide receiver DJ Moore in a favorable matchup lined up across from Commanders CB Benjamin St-Juste, who is surrendering 1.60 yards per cover snap ranking 71st out of 74 qualifying cornerbacks.
Our model favors the Bears by 3.3 with a predicted total of 46.1 points.
Prop Bet: Bears WR DJ Moore Over 59.5 receiving yards and Over 4.5 receptions. Those same two yards and receptions props both cashed as winners in Week 7 on Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and in Week 6 on Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb.
Follow more NFL teams, matchups and betting news with Week 8 picks and props, along with popular Same Game Parlays, which provide more engaging and entertaining watch and wager action.
Brady Henderson, ESPNNov 15, 2024, 06:44 PM ETCloseBrady Henderson is a reporter for NFL Nation at ESPN. Henderson covers the Seattle Seahawks. He joined ESPN i
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