The NFL Week 6 schedule has six division games and the San Francisco 49ers kicked off the action with a 36-24 win Thursday night in Seattle over the Seahawks. Those two teams are now tied on top of the NFC West with 3-3 records. The two most watched and wagered games on Sunday, Oct. 13 are the surprising and surging Washington Commanders (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2) in a regional and interconference battle of first place teams. The late afternoon schedule is highlighted by a key contest betweent winning teams with the Detroit Lions (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-2).

The Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) and Denver Broncos (3-2) play in Mile High and headline four other division games Sunday ahead of the Monday Night Football feature and battle for first place in the AFC East between the Buffalo Bills (3-2) at New York Jets (2-3), who fired head coach Robert Saleh this week.

NFL Betting Trends – Latest Bet And Money Percentages

Also, the NFL heads back to London on Sunday morning when the Chicago Bears tackle the Jacksonville Jaguars in a matchup of former No. 1 QB draft picks Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence. Prop bets continue to drive the watch and wager action with more engagement, and FanDuel sportsbook reports more betting on both quarterbacks Williams and Lawrence to score a touchdown in the Anytime Touchdown scorer market.

FanDuel also noted on Friday that “We’ve taken almost 6x as many spread bets on the Bears (-1.5) as Jaguars bets.” Yet the line has dipped from Bears -2 to -1 and now Jaguars -1.5 as I write this with the favorite flipping sides as more money is bet on the Jaguars.

NFL Week 6 Odds

Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Bet types, odds and terms with listed point spreads on favorites.

NFL Week 6 Injury Reports

According to playoff probability odds averaged from top online sportsbooks heading into Week 6, there are five AFC teams with favorite odds to make the NFL playoffs and four of them heavy favorites including the Baltimore Ravens.

Chiefs (-20000), Ravens (-1000), Texans (-1000), Bills (-700), Steelers (-120). The Jets (+110) play the Bills on Week 6 Monday Night Football. The Chargers (+110) and Broncos (+180) have a key AFC West game Sunday as they try to stay within shouting distance of the undefeated division-leading Chiefs (5-0).

More NFC teams are still in the mix to make the playoffs, but only the undefeated Vikings (-1000) are heavy favorites. Lions (-265), Falcons (-220), Eagles (-210), 49ers (-165), Commanders (-150) and then the Buccaneers (-110), Packers (-110) and Cowboys (-105) are still in solid position to make the post season with a long way to go but meaningful games yet in October.

Commanders-Ravens

Respected sports handicapper and advanced model statistics guru Dr. Bob Sports provided additional stats and notes on the Commanders-Ravens matchup with information you can bet on

• The Commanders are averaging 0.87 EPA/play on late downs as Jayden Daniels always seems to find a way to convert. However, that level of late down success is completely unprecedented. The next highest offense in the league is the Texans, who are averaging 0.37 EPA/late down. The Cowboys led the NFL averaging 0.39 EPA/late down last season and it’s very likely that Washington’s 3^rd and 4^th down success will regress going forward.
• Baltimore’s defense is allowing a league-low 26.5% rush success rate, and they will contain Washington’s ground game, which is leading the NFL with 0.16 EPA/rush.
• Commanders’ TE Zach Ertz has a 56% success rate (7th) and he has a favorable matchup as the Ravens defense is allowing 0.37 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (25th).
• Baltimore edge defender Kyle Van Noy ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency and he will battle across from RT Andrew Wylie, who has allowed just 7 pressures (10th-fewest).
• Washington’s interior offensive line is only responsible for 31.8% of the pressures (3rd-fewest) and they will limit interior defender Nnamdi Madubuike, who has 15 pressures (9th).
• The Ravens are averaging 0.13 EPA/rush (2nd) and I expect them to pound the rock against a Commanders defense that is surrendering a 44.5% rush success rate (27th) – especially with Lamar Jackson not having a favorable passing matchup.
• Jackson is targeting tight ends on 28.3% of passes (5th-most) but Washington’s defense is conceding only 0.01 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (9th).
• Jackson will see pressure off the right side as rookie RT Roger Rosengarten struggles versus edge defender Dorance Armstrong, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency.

Our model makes Baltimore a 6.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 51.3 points and Washington is in a negative situation. Teams that have won consecutive games in which they scored 31 points or more in each, are just 138-198-8 ATS on the road and The Commanders apply to a 30-85-2 ATS subset of that situation.

Note that the Ravens defense has given up a minimum of 26 offensive points in 4-of-5 games this season.

Lions-Cowboys

The Detroit Lions enter off their bye week rested and ready as road favorites at Dallas. The Lions have the shortest injury list of teams this week while the Cowboys will again play without star DE Micah Parsons (ankle) and LB Eric Kendricks (calf, shoulder). Detroit plays the 5th most man defense in the league, and Dallas has been crushing man-t0-man coverage since head coach Mike McCarthy took over the play calling last season.

The Cowboys offense averages 26% more yards per attempt against man coverage vs. zone this season (3rd best NFL). Cowboys star receiver CeeDee Lamb leads NFL with 234 yards receiving against man coverage. Lamb had 13 receptions for 227 yards and 1 TD late last season in the Cowboys 20-19 win over the Lions when the two teams combined for more than 800 yards offense. A high-scoring game is projected even with a total rising above 51.

Prop Bet: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb over 86.5 receiving yards and 6.5 receptions.

Dr. Bob Sports also passed along advanced stats and a Best Bet on the LA Chargers over the Denver Broncos noting a very negative ATS situation on the Broncos coming off 3-straight wins. Denver’s yards per attempt versus zone coverage is only 86% of the yards per attempt against man and QB Bo Nix is expected to struggle with Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s scheme. Los Angeles has an 84.7% zone rate (3rd-highest).

Follow more NFL teams and betting news with Week 6 picks, props and popular same game parlays, which includes player props and SGP in another engaging and entertaining higher-scoring game between the Commanders and Ravens.

You can bet on it.

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