NFL Picks And Week 3 Odds Ravens-Cowboys And Eagles-Saints

Posted by Admin September 21, 2024 NFL

Philadelphia Eagles’ Landon Dickerson (69) and New Orleans Saints’ Demario Davis (56) are in action … [+] again for the Eagles-Saints Week 3 showdown in New Orleans on Sunday, Sept. 22. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Associated Press

The 2024 NFL Week 3 Sunday slate features short, tight betting lines and eight games have a point spread of 3-points or less. Nine NFL teams are 0-2 to start the season including six in the AFC. That includes the AFC North preseason favorite Baltimore Ravens (-1) when they travel to tackle the Dallas Cowboys in a interconference marquee matchup with more watch and wager action and NFL picks and props.

Playbook Sports notes that 279 teams have started the season 0-2 since 1990, and only 32 of them (11%) have turned it around and made the playoffs that season. NFL teams that go to 0-3 have less than a 2% chance of making the playoffs.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens are also the most popular moneyline bets to win their games Sunday, according to FanDuel Sportsbook betting data.

NFL Week 3 Odds

Pro football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Listed point spreads on favorites.

New York Giants at Cleveland (-6.5), game total 38.5 points
Chicago at Indianapolis (-1.5), 43.5
Houston (-1.5) at Minnesota, 45.5
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-2.5), 49.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh (-2.5), 35.5
Denver at Tampa Bay (-6.5), 40.5
Green Bay at Tennessee (-3), 37.5
Carolina at Las Vegas (-6.5), 39.5
Miami at Seattle (-4.5), 41.5
Detroit (-3) at Arizona, 51.5
Baltimore (-1.5) at Dallas, 47.5
San Francisco (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams, 43.5
Kansas City (-3) at Atlanta, 46.5

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Jacksonville at Buffalo (-4.5), 45.5
Washington at Cincinnati (-7.5), 46.5

Bet Types, Point Spreads And How To Read The Odds

There has been some market moves and line adjustments heading into Sunday’s NFL games including Steelers -1 to -2.5 vs. Chargers, Texans -2.5 to -1.5 at Vikings, Saints -2.5 to now some -3 vs. Eagles and Chiefs -4.5 to -3 at Falcons.

NFL Week 3 Injury Reports

Just two division games in Week 3 and the New York Jets pounded the New England Patriots 24-3 to kickoff the week on Thursday. The advance Week 4 lookahead lines feature five division games with potential early-season first place showdowns next Sunday between the Vikings-Packers (-2), Saints-Falcons (-1.5) and Chiefs-Chargers (+4.5) with Kansas City at Los Angeles the AFC game of the week.

Baltimore at Dallas

The Ravens are a most popular bet on Sunday at Dallas. That despite being o-2 and their dominant No. 1 defense from last season performing below average while allowing 26.5 points and 306 yards per game at 5.6 yards per play. Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports notes in his NFL analysis that the Ravens defense has a 28.3% pressure rate (27th) this season after their dominant defense last season ranked No. 1 in overall defense under defensive coordinator Mike McDonald, who is now the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. Scheme and coaching matter, and Ravens’ interior defender Nnamdi Madubuike ranked 7th in pass rushing efficiency last season but looks like he’ll be contained by All-Pro RG Zack Martin and rookie C Cooper Beebe, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency. The Ravens offense ranks No. 2 in pass blocking efficiency, but they should attack the Cowboys on the ground with RB Derrick Henry and QB Lamar Jackson. The Dallas defense is allowing a league-high 0.15 EPA/rush, and the Ravens are averaging 0.08 EPA/rush (3rd).

“Clearly bettors think this is a must-win game for the Ravens after their 0-2 start,” Fanatics Sportsbook senior editor Max Meyer said. “Not only have the Ravens been a lopsided spread bet, but they’re drawing the majority of the moneyline action for this contest too. The lack of Cowboys interest also shows how much things can change in the NFL week over week. Last Sunday morning, no team had more bets and money to cover than Dallas against the Saints.”

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has appeared in only three games where the Ravens were coming off consecutive losses, and Baltimore won all three games outright. In addition, Playbook Sports notes that Jackson and the Ravens are 15- 2- 1 ATS in games where the Ravens are not installed as favorites of 3-or-more points.

The Ravens are a popular play, and I lean their way with the biggest projected rushing yards edge of Sunday’s games with the matchups and lack of quality running backs on the Cowboys ranking bottom quartile in rush success rate. Have to hope Jackson doesn’t turn the ball over and converts more points in the red zone (3 turnovers in 2 games).

Philadelphia at New Orleans

The Eagles are on a 0-8 against the spread (ATS) run in games after playing the Falcons. Betting trends can be meaningless, and get you in trouble when wagering. Especially old team trends that are not as applicable to current matchups and injury situations. The Eagles will play without star wide receiver A.J. Brown, but this is the biggest line move of the week from the Week 3 lookahead lines which showed the Eagles (-3.5) as a projected road favorite. Philadelphia blew the Week 2 Monday Night Football game with some late-game coaching decisions and errors and the Falcons final 2-minute offense drove the length of the field for a winning touchdown and stunning 22-21 win.

Now the Saints have a 1-day rest advantage, and New Orleans boasts the No. 1 scoring offense in the league through 2 games averaging 45.5 points per game after dominating Dallas last week 44-19 with 190 rushing yards and 432 total yards at 7.7 yards per play. The Saints offense is averging a league-high 6.9 yards per play while the Eagles are at the NFL average, 5.5. The Saints had five touchdown drives of 70 yards or more against Dallas with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak getting the most out QB Derek Carr and the Saints skill position players.

“We started seeing some Eagles money when we first moved from the spread to 2.5, but then the Eagles got hit really hard when we moved them to +3,” Meyer said.”

The Saints (405 yards per game) and Eagles (387) are two of the most productive offenses in the league, and Philadelphia has run 71 plays per game – second most behind Detroit. Dr. Bob Sports advanced stats also shows the Saints leading the NFL with an 84% motion rate and QB Derek Carr averaging 11.0 yards per pass play on dropbacks with motion. Kubiak’s scheme has helped hide the perceived weakness of the Saints offensive line, which includes a rookie left tackle and was considered to be one of the least talented in the NFL heading into the year and ranked last at No. 32 by Pro Football Focus. The Eagles offensive line started the season ranked No. 2 behind only the Detroit Lions. Philadelphia’s linebacker depth is lacking and they are surrendering a 44.9% rush success rate (27th). The Saints are averaging 0.17 EPA/rush (2nd) led by RB Alvin Kamara, who is projected to exceed his rushing yards prop (70.5 yards) and receiving yards (31.5).

Contrary call on the Eagles +3 and moneyline +130.

Two of the most bet games with perhaps the Ravens starting the season 0-3 or the Cowboys and Eagles starting 1-2. That would be a suprise considering preseason Super Bowl odds had those three teams among the favorites to start the season and all three with season win totals of 10.5 or higher.

You can bet on it.