NFL hot seat rankings: Which coaches are in most trouble entering Week 18?

Posted by Admin January 1, 2025 NFL

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Has the NFL’s hot seat season already reached its peak temperature?

As the league approaches Week 18 and the dreaded “Black Monday” for staffs everywhere, three teams – the New York Jets, New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears – already have created vacancies by firing their coaches. History suggests more action is bound to follow. But unless several teams match the surprising upheaval of last year, in which eight teams made changes, this cycle could end up looking something closer to the fallout of two years ago, when just two coaches (Kliff Kingsbury and Lovie Smith) were dismissed after three in-season firings (Matt Rhule, Frank Reich and Nathaniel Hackett).

Still, there’s sure to be plenty of intrigue in the next week and beyond. Here’s our look at the NFL coaches with the hottest seats ahead of this weekend’s finales:

1. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

When the Jaguars suffered their worst loss in franchise history with a 52-6 rout at the hands of the Detroit Lions, many expected a coaching change would be made ahead of the bye week. Then … nothing happened. Still, while Jacksonville squeezed two more victories out of its matchups with the Tennessee Titans since then, there’s not much to suggest that there is – or should be – a strong push to keep Pederson.

Despite later voicing his support for Pederson amid a 1-4 start, owner Shad Khan made clear before the season he believed this was “the best team assembled” by the organization in its history. He’s right to be bullish about at least a few integral parts of the Jaguars’ setup, with the presence of Trevor Lawrence, a budding star receiver in Brian Thomas Jr. and the league’s weakest division all making this an extremely attractive potential vacancy. While plenty of what has gone wrong has been outside of Pederson’s control – including Lawrence making just 10 starts before being knocked out for the season – it seems clear a new voice is needed. Khan hasn’t signaled his intent, but this seems like the most clear-cut decision to be made after Week 18.

The more interesting call might be on the fate of general manager Trent Baalke, the architect of a roster rife with high-investment flops. Opting to clean house would surely indicate a more widespread personnel shake-up, but it also could color the coaching search given how Baalke’s presence loomed over the search three years ago, according to multiple reports.

2. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders

No one can lob tanking accusations at the Silver and Black, as the Raiders won their last two games to push them out of prime position to select a top quarterback in the upcoming NFL draft. Beyond that and the record-setting rookie campaign of tight end Brock Bowers, however, there hasn’t been much to like about what Las Vegas has produced, even with a roster especially starved for talent after the Davante Adams trade in October. At the NFL league meeting in December, owner Mark Davis said he was “very disappointed” in the results from Pierce and declined to commit to him for 2025, according to The Athletic.

Might this be one of the first opportunities for Tom Brady to shape the organization after the seven-time Super Bowl winner and FOX broadcaster became a minority owner this fall? Davis has said he wants Brady to have a “huge voice” in football matters, particularly when it comes to choosing its next signal-caller. While it’s not clear how Brady might view the current regime, Davis’ embrace of the legend would seem to indicate a desire to employ a new approach.

3. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Earlier this season, McCarthy might have pushed Pederson for the top spot on the list. With clear expectations to improve on the past three 12-win campaigns that produced just one playoff win, the Cowboys crashed out with a 3-7 start that included repeated embarrassments at home. But despite losing Dak Prescott to a season-ending hamstring injury and several other key starters to significant ailments, Dallas rallied to notch four wins in its following five games before last Sunday’s rout by the Philadelphia Eagles.

From the time he opted to bring the coach back following last season’s wild-card rout by the Green Bay Packers all the way up to this week, Jerry Jones has been largely laudatory of McCarthy. It’s worth noting, however, that Jones also spoke highly of Jason Garrett right up until he decided to part ways with his longtime coach and former quarterback after the 2019 season. Still, McCarthy has received the backing of Prescott and star pass rusher Micah Parsons, which could bolster his case.

Jones said in his weekly radio interview Tuesday he was not under facing any “unusual time frame” to make a call after stringing out his last few coaching decisions, including retaining McCarthy for 2024 and firing Garrett five years ago after an extended wait. But McCarthy is free to pursue opportunities as he pleases with his contract set to expire, and he could be an alluring candidate for other franchises looking for a proven entity.

4. Brian Daboll, New York Giants

Co-owner John Mara went out on a bit of a ledge in late October when he said he didn’t “anticipate” making any leadership changes this offseason. The subsequent 10-game losing streak might have complicated matters. While Mara might not be swayed by the banners flying over MetLife Stadium demanding a full organizational teardown, it could be hard to stick with the status quo of what had been the league’s lowest-scoring offense prior to the 45-point outburst in Sunday’s win over the Indianapolis Colts.

That outcome should at least put to rest any question about the team’s resiliency in a season that featured a late-season pivot behind center that led to Daniel Jones’ departure. Daboll seemed to drive home a message after the team’s skid ended, saying, “If you get good quarterback play, you have an opportunity in every game.” As has long been the case, Mara must determine whether he trusts the existing setup to identify and develop the new signal-caller who could determine the trajectory of the franchise for years to come. His earlier statement would seem to indicate he has the confidence to stay the course, but recall what he said three years ago in explaining the decision to fire Joe Judge after just two seasons: “We just got to a point where I thought we had dug ourselves a hole so deep that I didn’t see a clear path to getting out of it unless we completely blew it up and started all over again with a new general manager and a new head coach.”

5. Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots

If there’s one potential surprise to monitor in what otherwise is shaping up to be a relatively tame ride on the coaching carousel, it’s in Foxborough. Robert Kraft has hardly been the picture of an impatient owner, and Bill Belichick left the roster with few building blocks as he was pushed out the door. But a 3-13 season has produced plenty of angst, including “fire Mayo” chants during a 40-7 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last Saturday. Still, given how resolute Kraft was in appointing Mayo as Belichick’s successor, an about-face after one trying season would be a true stunner. The more reasonable course of action might be leveraging what’s projected to be a league-high $131 million in cap space, according to OverTheCap.com, and potentially the No. 1 pick in the draft to supercharge a widespread roster reboot.