It’s wild to think that the Miami Dolphins are back in the playoff race after beating the Los Angeles Rams to improve to 3–6.

But we shouldn’t be so quick to assume that losing teams will suddenly be consistent and pile up wins. Many fell for the New York Jets after they beat the Houston Texans in Week 9, only for them to lay an egg against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.

The seven teams in the AFC with three wins or less are at the bottom of the standings for various reasons and aren’t close to the true contenders in the conference.

Maybe it’s too late for the Dolphins to make a playoff run, but they can take steps forward to building an offense that can beat the winning teams. 

It’s starting to look like six of the seven spots in the AFC playoffs are already spoken for, but we’re just starting the second half of the 2024 season. Let’s examine the wide gap between the good and bad teams for this week’s NFL Fact or Fiction.

Manzano’s view: Fact

The Dolphins’ 23–15 victory over the Rams was the type of game that football fans should quickly forget about. It was a tough watch, but I can’t get over how easily the Dolphins handled a mostly healthy Rams team without relying on the deep ball. 

Miami lived and died by Tua Tagovailoa’s downfield shots to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the past two seasons. It was a strength that coach Mike McDaniel heavily leaned on while neglecting diversity in his offensive scheme. But the all-gas, no-brakes approach often backfired against the better teams, especially when temperatures dipped in December and January.  

On Monday, the Dolphins quickly built a 10–0 lead and generated 23 points with Hill contributing only three catches for 16 yards and one not-so-explosive one-yard touchdown reception. Waddle recorded three catches for 57 yards, and was relatively quiet after snagging a 36-yard catch on the opening drive. 

No longer can the Dolphins afford to play “go deep, Hill and Waddle” because they don’t have the offensive line to sustain that. Asking Tagovailoa to stand in the pocket against a defensive front as good as the one the Rams possess would have been reckless on Miami’s part. 

McDaniel didn’t need to see Rams rookie edge rusher Jared Verse strip sack Tagovailoa in the second quarter to know it wouldn’t be wise to force deep shots to Hill and Waddle. Miami has found ways to have others contribute with Tagovailoa, which could benefit them in the present and in the long run. The Dolphins (3–6) aren’t far behind the Denver Broncos (5–5), who currently hold the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. They can stack a few more wins against the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots in the next two weeks. 

McDaniel demonstrated the team’s depth by dialing up an end-around touchdown run for Malik Washington to give the Dolphins an early 7–0 lead against the Rams. Miami also got a productive 33-yard catch-and-run play from tight end Jonnu Smith to set up Hill’s touchdown catch to extend the lead 17–6 with 5:32 left in the third quarter. 

But evolving the Dolphins’ offense is a work in progress. Hill does need to get at least a few downfield shots in every game—otherwise why have him on your roster? That requires good timing and a balanced attack, which is possible with how well second-year running back De’Von Achane has played in the past month. McDaniel turned his scheme into a run-heavy offense when Tagovailoa was sidelined for four games. It didn’t lead to wins, but maybe now Miami will be able to produce a physical running game down the stretch that will progress into next season. 

Manzano’s view: Fact 

The fan bases of the current top six AFC teams might have just rolled their eyes at the epic jinx I just unleashed into the football universe. But if I’m wrong, at least we’ll see chaos down the stretch for playoff spots. 

C’mon, rookie quarterback Drake Maye leading the Patriots into the postseason would be fun. But, yeah, that likely won’t happen because of the disparity between the teams with winning records and the many teams with three wins or fewer.  

It’s obvious who are the true contenders in the AFC and it’s the usual suspects, with the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. I guess it’s a nice surprise that the Pittsburgh Steelers might have improved from a one-and-done playoff team to a potential Super Bowl contender with Russell Wilson as the starter. It might come down to one of those four teams, but count on the Texans making the postseason because they play in the subpar AFC South. All five of these teams made the playoffs last season. There’s not much parity in the AFC right now.

The Los Angeles Chargers, the current sixth seed, would be a new playoff team in the AFC, but they need to get through a difficult four-game stretch after beating up on bad teams to build their 6–3 record. Next up for Los Angeles is a Sunday Night Football showdown against the 4–6 Cincinnati Bengals, who are aiming to gain ground on the 5–5 Broncos, who currently hold the final wild-card spot in the AFC.

The Bengals leaning on their dynamic offense to squeak into the postseason wouldn’t be a surprise. But it’s tough seeing that for the Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, Dolphins and Patriots. So, yeah, the one playoff spot up for grabs, in my mind, might come down to the Bengals and Broncos. 

Scream at me if some of the top six AFC teams heading into Week 11 totally collapse in the final two months. I wouldn’t mind seeing a few surprise runs, but I can’t see it right now.

Manzano’s view: Fiction 

At this point, it would be a shock if New York Giants coach Brian Daboll doesn’t announce Wednesday morning that Daniel Jones will be benched. 

The Giants have run out of excuses for Jones, who had a disastrous performance in Germany during the overtime loss against the Carolina Panthers. Jones is no longer the inexperienced project that needs time to develop and live up to his high draft status as the No. 6 pick in the 2019 draft. That excuse went out the window when the team signed him to a four-year, $160 million contract extension in 2023 because of a lone season that had more highs than lows.

That was followed by the team pointing toward Jones’s bad injury luck. But he’s been available this season and hasn’t come close to doing what he did in the 2022 season when the Giants surprisingly made the playoffs in Daboll’s first season in New York. It’s gotten so bad since then that Daboll is no longer viewed as the offensive mastermind that helped Josh Allen put it all together in Buffalo.  

Daboll may or may not be on the hot seat, but he needs to at least see what Drew Lock or a different quarterback can do throwing to Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson and with a productive rushing attack in Tyrone Tracy Jr.. Yes, Tracy had a costly fumble in overtime vs. the Panthers, but his 103 rushing yards are why New York was able to send the Germany game into overtime. 

Tracy, obviously, isn’t Saquon Barkley, but Jones has enough weapons to do more than he’s done this season. Jones has a 2–8 record, with 2,070 passing yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. The excuses have run out and it’s time for a change in New York, which is headed toward owning a high draft pick. 

Manzano’s view: Fiction

The surging Philadelphia Eagles (7–2) currently own the No. 2 seed in the NFC, behind the 8–1 Detroit Lions. But that doesn’t make them the second-best team in the conference.

It’s tough to tell whether the Eagles are a very good team or an average one that struggles against poor opponents. For example, the Jacksonville Jaguars nearly beat the Eagles at home in Week 9 until Trevor Lawrence threw a brutal interception in the end zone. And Philadelphia held on to beat the Cleveland Browns by four points in Week 6.

The Eagles have won five consecutive games, but all against teams with losing records. They deserve credit for crushing the Bengals by 20 points in Week 8, but Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the league, which is why they’re one of the most disappointing teams in the league. 

You can make an argument that the Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers and even the Cardinals are better than the Eagles, though Philadelphia did beat the Green Bay Packers way back in Week 1.

We’ll learn plenty about the Eagles during Thursday night’s NFC East battle with the Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders have been under the spotlight as the new team on the block. The Eagles can gain respect by showing not much has changed in the division.