We’re officially into the back third of the NFL regular season and the league has never been more difficult to predict. Naturally there are the elite teams of the league, but dig just a little deeper and we have a glut of the “very good,” without anyone really separating themselves to the point you can be confident.

As it stands on the AFC East is effectively locked up. The 8-2 Bills are five games ahead of the Dolphins, who feel like the only team with the potential to challenge them in the division. Barring a significant collapse it’s Buffalo’s for the losing. Outside of that, everything is open.

The Chiefs will make the playoffs obviously, but as they’ve struggled in one-score games in recent weeks the Chargers have been making a surge, now at 6-3 and seemingly capable of making a run in the first year under Jim Harbaugh.

As always, the NFL’s most chaotic division remains the NFC South. Looking at the obvious wins and losses remaining for each team there’s a very real chance the Falcons and Buccaneers both finish 9-8, while the Panthers and Saints both finish 5-12. How’s that for mediocrity?

Here are our picks for Week 11.