Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday 4.30pm EST/9.30pm GMT)

What the Texans need to do to win: CJ Stroud needs to continue his upward trajectory. After turning what would have been an ugly fumble deep in his own half into the beginning of a run of 23 unanswered points against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, Houston’s quarterback seemed to shake off his winter blues at the very moment he found Xavier Hutchinson wide open downfield. Stroud needs to trust his instincts in order to compensate for a subpar offensive line, though more importantly he has to have faith in Nico Collins. The receiver will be under blanket coverage from Trent McDuffie and Justin Reid, owing to a lack of any other significant Texans threat downfield, but his remarkable knack of making catches in heavy traffic will be crucial if his team are to keep pace with the Chiefs. Oh, and in games that Collins has 150 or more receiving yards the Texans are 4-0 so just keep it flowing in his direction. Easy.

What the Chiefs need to do to win: After coasting through the warmup for this game 27-19 in December it is tricky to see what the masters of staying one step and one score ahead need to add to their gameplan. However they must be prepared for a battle with Houston’s defense. The pass rush from Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter is immense while the cornerback pairing of Derek Stingley Jr and Kamari Lassiter dominated the Chargers with a trio of interceptions between them last weekend. Patrick Mahomes needs to watch his back while being very careful with ball placement in light of Houston’s clear advantage over Kansas City in the backfield and trenches.

Key player: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. It is nice that the great sandbagging season of 2024 has finally drawn to a close and the real Kelce can come out to play. A 25-day layoff will have the 35-year-old fit to step back into his role as target leader and red zone assassin.

Prediction: Chiefs over Texans.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (Saturday 8pm EST/Sunday 1am GMT)

What the Commanders need to do to win: Head coach Dan Quinn has to stay aggressive to keep Washington from being blown away. Their 87% fourth-down conversion rate leads the league and was a huge factor in edging out Tampa Bay in the wildcard round. The five attempts they had against the Bucs made sure they kept up with a high-scoring offense, something they will encounter again against the Lions. The final fourth-down conversion, which resulted in a five-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin, is the perfect example of how their aggression often yields results. The Commanders could have kicked a field goal, to cut a 17-13 deficit down to one point, and relied on their defense to get a stop. Instead Quinn gambled or, as he put it after the game, was “bold, but not reckless”.

What the Lions need to do to win: Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn needs to take risks with his playcalling to bring rookie sensation Jayden Daniels back down to earth. The bye week will have helped the Lions recover from a long season but three cornerbacks remain on injured reserve so to protect his undermanned secondary Glenn has to try to pressure Daniels into mistakes. Against Minnesota in the final game of the regular season, Detroit pressured Sam Darnold on 28.9% of his dropbacks forcing a completion rate of only 44% while in the previous game against the 49ers, Brock Purdy was pressured on 23.7% of dropbacks. He was sacked twice and threw two interceptions. As a rookie Daniels has proven himself better than those players at handling pressure but in the biggest game of his young career the risk of a handful of costly plays is worth the reward for Detroit.

Key players: Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, RBs, Lions. The bye week may have been most beneficial for Gibbs after losing Montgomery for three games to close the season. Gibbs now has his running mate back for a change of pace in short yardage situations. The elite pairing could easily expose a Washington defense outmatched by their pace and power.

Prediction: Lions over Commanders.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 3pm EST/8pm GMT)

What the Rams need to do to win: The Eagles boast one of the NFL’s finest cornerback pairings in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean so deep passes to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp should be limited to keep the Philly tandem guessing if a long bomb will come their way. Otherwise opportunities underneath their coverage should be preyed upon. Running back Kyren Williams and tight end Tyler Higbee will most likely play important roles in the passing game while Nacua and Kupp can both be effective in the slot on short catches.

What the Eagles need to do to win: Philadelphia have to find more in the passing game after relying on a defensive masterclass to beat Green Bay. Jalen Hurts threw for only 121 yards last weekend, with a run of seven incompletions from the end of the first quarter until midway through the third. A repeat of that cold snap could be Philadelphia’s undoing. LA are going to sell out to stop the run after Saquon Barkley ran over them for a ridiculous 255 yards and two touchdowns when these teams met in November, so Hurts will need to be more involved. He has to raise his game even with a slowed down Barkley more than likely still able to find the bulk of the offensive production.

Key player: AJ Brown, WR, Eagles. After a quiet performance there always comes an overcorrection. Hurts would be wise to continue the tradition and target his star receiver as much as possible after Brown felt uninvolved enough to do some light reading during the win over Green Bay. Brown has proven to be a tough cover for the Rams in their past two meetings. He caught six of his seven targets for 109 yards and one touchdown earlier this season and six of eight targets for 127 yards in 2023.

Prediction: Rams over Eagles.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6pm EST/11pm GMT)

What the Ravens need to do to win: Baltimore need to keep riding Derrick Henry. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who have a great defense, knew exactly what was coming for them and were still powerless to resist in the wildcard round. The running back’s 186 yards against Pittsburgh last weekend prove that keeping Henry in check is nigh on impossible. Like the Steelers, the Bills have a good run defense and yet Henry recorded a season-high 199 yards on the ground in an easy 35-10 win over Buffalo in September. The running back’s dominance should also help calm any jitters from Lamar Jackson.

What the Bills need to do to win: With a defense as solid as Baltimore’s it’s hard to find any weaknesses. But if there is a flaw Josh Allen can pick apart it’s the Ravens’ inside linebackers. Roquan Smith and Malik Harrison offer limited pass coverage so the Bills can target the middle of the field as they did against the similarly underpowered linebackers of Detroit in December. The Bills running backs thrived in the passing game in the 48-42 shootout win over the Lions as James Cook, Ray Davis and Ty Johnson combined for 156 receiving yards and a score. Johnson meanwhile showed again that he is an excellent pass-catching back with his miracle touchdown grab on fourth-and-one against the Broncos last week. Short, sharp throws to the running trio will hurt Baltimore.

Key player: Kyle Hamilton, S, Ravens. Baltimore’s passing defense has been transformed since the team moved Hamilton to deep safety but defensive coordinator Zach Orr may be wise to put him closer to the line of scrimmage to spy Allen. Hamilton’s size and speed make him well suited to limiting the swashbuckling quarterback on the ground.

Prediction: Ravens over Bills.