The first day of the divisional round of the playoffs was a thriller around the NFL. The Washington Commanders had a massive upset victory over the Detroit Lions and advanced to the conference championship game for the first time since 1991, all behind the rookie sensation in Jayden Daniels. Washington will play the winner of the Philadelphia eagles and Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship game next week.

The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans in the early game to advance to their seventh consecutive conference championship game — or every season Patrick Mahomes has been a starter. The Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills or the Baltimore Ravens next week. 

With the exciting divisional round matchups on Saturday concluded, there are plenty of overreactions to be had. Which are overreactions and which are reality? 

Jayden Daniels is having the best postseason ever for a rookie QB 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

What Daniels has done in two postseason games is the stuff legends are made of. The No. 6-seeded Commanders defeated the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay then beat the No. 1-seeded Lions in Detroit, making Daniels the third rookie quarterback to play in the conference championship game.

Daniels hasn’t game managed his way there either. Daniels is the first player since the 1970 merger with 250+ passing yards, 2+ passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions in each of his first two playoff games. He’s the third player with 500+ passing yards, 75+ rushing yards, 4+ passing touchdowns and zero interceptions through the first two games of a postseason — joining Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

The Commanders are in the conference championship game for the first time in 33 years because of Daniels, playing like a top-five quarterback in Year 1. Daniels and the Commanders have a bright future. 

Lions Super Bowl window is closed

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Lions were the team to beat in the NFC with the No. 1 seed and a 15-2 record. This was their best chance to win a Super Bowl, and they were in position to win one with the playoffs going through Detroit. With this divisional playoff loss to the Commanders, is the Super Bowl window closed? 

The core of this team with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Penei Sewell are back. Aidan Hutchinson and many other key defensive starters will be healthy as well (the Lions had six defensive starters on injured reserve and 16 total players). Detroit still has a top-three offensive line in football and one of the most explosive offenses, whether Ben Johnson returns as offensive coordinator or not. 

The Lions will lose some key coaches (Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn most likely), so they’ll take a hit there. There are some questions whether Goff is good enough to win this team a Super Bowl, but this team will be in the mix to compete for a Super Bowl in 2025. The window is not closed yet. 

Jared Goff isn’t good enough to win the Lions a Super Bowl

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Goff is a good enough quarterback to win Detroit a Super Bowl championship, but turnovers and subpar play in big games have been his downfall. Goff threw three interceptions — one returned for a touchdown — and had a fumble lost in Saturday’s loss to the Commanders. 

The Lions may have to protect Goff from himself going forward, making him a game manager in big games instead of a gun slinger. Goff has been to a Super Bowl and two conference championship games in his career, yet has a 4-5 postseason record. Heading into Saturday, Goff’s 0.6 interception rate was the lowest in NFL playoff history — which evaporated because of his poor performance. 

Detroit committed to Goff and gave him $53 million a year for the next four years. They’ll roll with Goff going forward and Goff will have multiple opportunities to avenge this playoff loss. Going forward, Detroit probably should not rely on him throwing 40+ times in a playoff game. 

Travis Kelce is the best receiver to ever play in the postseason

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Kelce added to his postseason legend in Saturday’s win, catching seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown in the victory. Kelce passed Jerry Rice for the most 100-yard games by any player in the postseason (nine) and has 14 straight playoff games with 70+ receiving yards — double the amount of the next highest player (Antonio Brown has seven). 

Kelce has 2,020 receiving yards, and 20 receiving touchdowns in his playoff career — only Rice has more with 2,245 and 22 touchdowns. At 35 years old, Kelce could pass Rice as soon as this season — and he’s already in striking distance of Rice. 

Both Kelce and Rice have three Super Bowl titles and are the No. 1 options for each of their Super Bowl championship teams. Kelce also has the most receptions by any player in postseason history (172) — and has these numbers in six fewer playoff games than Rice. 

When it comes to the postseason, no one is a better pass catcher than Kelce.

Andy Reid will set the NFL all-time wins record for coaches

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Reid notched his 300th career win (regular and postseason) with the Chiefs beating the Texans on Saturday, becoming the fourth head coach in NFL history to hit 300 career wins. Only three head coaches have more career wins than Reid: Don Shula (347), Bill Belichick (333), and George Halas (324). The all-time wins record is well within reach. 

Reid only needs 48 wins to pass Shula and is only 66 years old. The Chiefs win an average of 13 regular-season games a season since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback — and this isn’t including the 16 postseason wins. Counting the postseason, the Chiefs win an average of 15 games a year. 

Reid only needs three more seasons at that pace to get within five wins of the all-time record, something he can pass by the 2028 season (he would be 70). Assuming Reid doesn’t retire prior to then, he will pass Shula for the most wins by a head coach — and may have a few more championships by then. 

Officials are why the Chiefs won 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Social media was buzzing with how the officiating crew were in favor of the Chiefs in Saturday’s win, particularly Patrick Mahomes. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans added fuel to the fire by saying in his postgame press conference — “It was us versus everybody. When I say everybody, I mean everybody.” — implying the officials had calls in favor of the Chiefs. 

This isn’t way the Chiefs won the game. The Texans allowed eight sacks in the divisional round loss, allowed a 63-yard kickoff return on the opening play of the game that led to three points, had a 35-yard field goal blocked, and missed a 55-yard field goal in the 23-14 loss (nine points given up right there). Houston was also 1 of 3 in the red zone, not having a single goal-to-go situation. 

Houston made enough mistakes on Saturday not to advance to the conference championship game. Losses don’t need to be blamed on the officials, especially if Ryans was implying that was the case.