NFL DFS Week 9 Optimal Lineup: How Jalen Hurts helps win

Posted by Admin November 2, 2024 NFL

It turned out Jordan Love wasn’t all we needed in Week 8. We also needed some luck.

Love suffered a groin injury early in his game at Jacksonville, and toughed it out until the third quarter before being replaced by Malik Willis, torpedoing one of my two team stacks from a week ago.

Suffice to say, it wasn’t a banner week for The Lineup. Time to turn the page.

This week, I continue to attack the Jaguars with my quarterback selection. Jacksonville has allowed the second-most fantasy points to QBs this season, and can do enough offensively to keep the other team aggressive.

I’m pairing pass catchers from two teams who I believe will be playing catch-up for most of the day with the team’s running backs they’ll be chasing in my two primary game stacks.

I’m also calling on Saints in a team stack against the Panthers, an opponent New Orleans beat 47-10 in Week 1.

Plus, I’m recycling two players from Week 8’s lineup, something I haven’t done this season.

Here’s to hoping for some positive regression in the luck department.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.75 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The Optimal Lineup has netted $137.86 this season, so I’m in the black $2.86 with an average score of 129.67 points through eight weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

Week 1: 90.16

Week 2: 144.38

Week 3: 100.38

Week 4: 180.78

Week 5: 147.14

Week 6: 126.72

Week 7: 132.98

Week 8: 114.84

Week 9 Lineup

QB: Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($7,800)

Peculiar fact: the winning Milly Maker lineup has had a QB without a pass catcher stacked with him in four out of eight weeks this season. I’ve discussed not necessarily needing to stack a receiver with a mobile QB because reaching their ceiling doesn’t always require throwing the football. Hurts has seven touchdowns the last two games, five coming via his powerful legs. The Jaguars have allowed a QB to score 20-plus fantasy points in five of the last six games, with Love being the only one not to hit that mark last week primarily due to his injury.

RB: Derrick Henry, Ravens ($8,300)

Baltimore has the highest implied team total (28 points) at home and are heavy favorites (9½) over the Broncos. Lamar Jackson appears to be banged up and the field might shy away from Henry because of his price tag and Denver’s defense, but it’s much easier to run than pass against the Broncos.

RB: Chase Brown, Bengals ($5,900)

Zack Moss was a late addition to the injury report on Friday with a neck injury and is listed as doubtful against the Raiders. Brown had already taken over the lead role in Cincinnati’s backfield and should take on an even bigger role with the Bengals favored by a TD at home and Moss likely out.

WR: Chris Olave, Saints ($6,100)

This is the cheapest Olave has been priced all season, and the Mission Hills product has a premium matchup against the Panthers, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. I anticipate Olave will hoard targets with Mt. Carmel’s Rashid Shaheed (knee) out for the year and QB Derek Carr returning to the lineup.

WR: Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($5,400)

Sutton completes my game stack with Henry. Denver should be chasing points at Baltimore, and the Ravens are allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Sutton has at least 68 receiving yards or a TD in four of the last six games.

WR: Cedric Tillman, Browns ($4,300)

Tillman has the most fantasy points in both standard and PPR formats since Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo two weeks ago. The third-round draft pick in 2023 has had at least nine targets in both games, producing 15 receptions for 180 yards and two touchdowns since Week 7. It’s a difficult matchup against the Chargers, but his volume and ridiculous value on DraftKings provide too much upside to pass on. How is he still under $5,000?

TE: Taysom Hill, Saints ($3,800)

Obviously, Hill is the most unpredictable player in fantasy, but he’s completely off the injury report for the first time since Week 2 and New Orleans continues to deal with a myriad of injuries at every “skill” position. I’m stacking the Swiss Army knife with Olave because they’re likely the only ones who are healthy enough to take full advantage of a matchup against Carolina. The Panthers struggle mightily with quarterbacks, pass catchers and running backs. Hill is all three.

FLEX: Brock Bowers, Raiders ($6,000)

Bowers completes my game stack with Brown. Similar to my Henry-Sutton stack, Las Vegas should be chasing points at Cincinnati, and the Bengals are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Bowers only had five targets last week after three straight games hitting double-digits. He still produced five receptions for 58 yards. Bowers’ ceiling remains massive. I utilized both him and Tillman last week, and they combined for 39.7 DraftKings points, with Tillman doing the heavy lifting. I’d be happy with similar output this week, but it might be reversed, who does what.

DST: New York Giants ($2,300)

The G-Men have trouble with the run, but they lead the NFL in sacks (35), and have produced at least four in six of eight games this season. Defensive pressure on a QB is the top indicator of fantasy success. The Giants don’t have to do much payoff this price tag.

Originally Published: November 2, 2024 at 1:36 PM PDT