Sometimes, you just have to acknowledge that the betting gods are angry with you. Sure, I’ve been terrible at making picks since Week 12 in the NFL, something I’ve said many times. Hell, just look at the headline.

But, honestly, I should have gone 4-0 in the Divisional Round if not for some terrible luck. None of that is going to stop me, though. I’ve got a fresh slate of picks for the OutKick readers to fade for the Conference Championship games. 

NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks (2-1-1)

Houston Texans (+6.5) over Kansas City Chiefs FIRST HALF ❌

Washington Commanders (+9.5) over Detroit Lions ✅

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) over Los Angeles Rams ↔️

Buffalo Bills (+1) over Baltimore Ravens ✅

SEASON REPORT CARD (38-44-2, 46%)

The Texans failed to cover the first half spread thanks to giving up a long kick return on the opening kickoff and a missed field goal following a bad sack by CJ Stroud. Houston out-gained the Chiefs in the first half, ran more plays and controlled time of possession. And yet, failed to cover +6.5. Brutal. 

Speaking of brutal, almost nothing could’ve been worse than the Eagles’ push against the Rams after Jake Elliott missed two extra points, including one after the team’s final touchdown. Sometimes you just have to recognize when you’re running bad, and stop betting. Fortunately for you all, I don’t possess that ability. 

All-in-all, it was a winning week. I told you all last week that the Commanders would shock the world and beat the Lions outright and they did. And the Bills finally overcame their Divisional Round demons and defeated the Ravens to get us to 2-1-1 on the weekend. 

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Betting Picks

Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) over Washington Commanders 

I’m a big fan of Jayden Daniels, Dan Quinn and the Washington Commanders. I picked them to beat Detroit last week, and they won by 14 points. But I can’t pick them in this spot. 

There are two key differences between the game against Detroit and the one against Philadelphia. The first is that Detroit was badly injured, particularly on defense. Daniels and the Commanders took full advantage in the Divisional Round. 

Second, the game in Detroit was played in a dome, which benefited Daniels and the Commanders’ speed. Daniels is a California-born kid who played at Arizona State and LSU. He doesn’t have a lot of experience in cold-weather games. 

That’s going to favor Philadelphia, particularly with their dominant rushing attack. Plus, this is easily the biggest game in Daniels’ career. Add it all up, and I think Daniels struggles a little bit in this contest. 

And, unfortunately for Washington, if Daniels doesn’t play like an MVP, I don’t think they can win. He can be good, and they can still lose; they need him to be elite. 

While I believe that Daniels and Quinn are a much better quarterback-head coach combo than Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni. But there’s no question that the Eagles have the better defense and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. 

Ultimately, playoff games are won in the trenches and the Eagles’ advantage, on both lines, is too great in this matchup. 

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 47.5

Building off the Eagles spread pick, I don’t see this as a high-scoring game. To me, sportsbooks are trying to entice action on the over, which is interesting. Normally, the public hammers the over in big games. But these teams combined for 69 points the last time they faced one another. 

So, why is this total under 50 points? It feels like a trap. The cold weather, and likely 10+ m.p.h. winds, should make both teams lean on their rushing attacks. Plus, this is the time these teams are playing one another this season. 

That usually means the game will be played in a more conservative manner, even though both Sirianni and Quinn are aggressive coaches. Even if the coaches elect to stay aggressive, I’m betting on some failed fourth-down conversions that will actually help the under. 

Finally, neither team has a particularly reliable kicker. Zane Gonzalez is the Commanders’ fourth different kicker this season. Jake Elliott has missed three extra points in two playoff games this season. Those points could matter, so I’m on the under. 

Buffalo Bills (+1.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

The Buffalo Bills are better than the Kansas City Chiefs. Period. Josh Allen is playing better than Patrick Mahomes right now, and Mahomes has only played one meaningful NFL game in the past month. 

While the Bills played a great game to upset the Baltimore Ravens last week, the Chiefs didn’t play particularly well at all. The Texans out-gained the Chiefs by over 120 yards, but lost because of poor special teams play – and penalties. That’s hard to depend on again in the Conference Championship. 

It’s time for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to finally beat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs.

(Denny Medley/Imagn Images)

In addition, there’s a major spotlight on the NFL referees in this game. There’s a lot of information floating around that officials favor the Chiefs, particularly in the playoffs. Personally, I think the league hears the noise and doesn’t want to have the appearance that it’s true, whether it’s actually true or not. 

This is a make-or-break postseason for Josh Allen and the Bills and I think they come through with the victory and advance to the Super Bowl. 

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 47.5

Yeah, I know I said the public loves betting the over in big games, and there is no bigger game than the AFC Championship between the Bills and Chiefs. But these teams are no stranger to high-scoring games, especially in the postseason. 

Allen and Mahomes have faced one another three times in the playoffs previously and each game saw at least 50 points scored. In fact, the average total for these two teams in those playoff games is 63 points. Their regular season matchups have been more low-scoring, with their five games averaging 47 points. 

However, we’ve seen that both teams empty the cupboards when they play against each other in the postseason, so expect both teams to come out firing. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been firing lately, but they should be able to score against a soft Bills defense. 

To me, this is going to be a high-scoring affair that comes down to the quarterbacks late in the fourth quarter. I like Josh Allen to finally change the narrative around his playoff performances.