Washington Commanders v Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 3pm ET/8pm GMT)

Story of the season: Jayden Daniels is one game away from the extraordinary. A stunning seven-win rampage through the winter leaves Washington with just Philadelphia to beat for the NFC championship and Daniels to become the first rookie quarterback to lead his team to a Super Bowl. They need a second win in six weeks over an Eagles team with the strongest roster top to bottom in the NFL. But Philly’s stacked lineup, with Saquon Barkley at its nucleus, rang rings around the Commanders for an easy victory the teams’ other regular-season meeting, in November. The Eagles will be desperate to spoil the rookie’s party while clinching this unlikely season-defining series.

What Washington need to do to win: The Commanders must maintain the improved level of defense they have achieved in these playoffs, while attempting to keep the ball out of Barkley’s hands as much as possible with a methodical, time-sapping run game. Washington forced only 17 turnovers in the regular season, but they generated five against the Lions last week and another against the Bucs in the wildcard round. Those turnovers led to three touchdowns.

Much like the defense, if Washington can gather the same production from running backs Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Ekeler as they did against Detroit, they will be difficult to stop. The pair combined for 128 rushing yards – just 17 short of their total from the previous three games. Steering the script away from needing explosive passing plays in the face of elite coverage from Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay is essential.

What Philadelphia need to do to win: Mea culpa. The Eagles do not need to pass the ball. In the wildcard round Jalen Hurts delivered the lowest chance of a passing attempt providing a positive outcome of any winning playoff team in the past 10 seasons. Last week, Hurts had 65 net passing yards, the lowest of any team in a postseason game in the past decade, win or lose. Unfortunately for Washington, with Barkley driving the Eagles offense the numbers matter little. When every ball the running back touches has the potential to go the length of the field, as long as Hurts doesn’t turn it over in between handoffs, Philadelphia have a mighty upper hand.

The snow and ice had their part to play in the lack of air yards last week. It will be Washington’s weak run defense that could leave them stagnant on Sunday. Detroit’s runners stacked up 201 yards and three touchdowns against the Commanders last week, the Eagles will expect Barkley to do something similar this weekend.

Key player for the Commanders: Jayden Daniels, quarterback. The rookie is the reason Washington have come from last in the NFC East in 2023 to the verge of the Super Bowl. He has shown an ability to lift his teammates’ level when it really matters Take the lesser-spotted Dyami Brown. The receiver averaged 19 yards per game in the regular season; in the two playoff wins since, he has 187 yards while receiving more targets and outgaining Terry McLaurin. The Eagles will be nervous of throwing too much attention McLaurin’s way now Daniels has realised Brown’s potential.

Key player for the Eagles: Jalen Carter, defensive tackle. After leading a brutal onslaught on Matthew Stafford against the Rams last week, the pass rusher will be keen to show Daniels is not as immune to pressure as he appears. What could tip the scales is the injury to Washington’s right guard Sam Cosmi. Replacement offensive tackle Trent Scott will need help to stop the disruptive Carter.

Prediction: Eagles over Commanders. Daniels is certain to make the Eagles work for it but with Barkley in the lineup Philadelphia will overcome Washington. Sometimes it feels that it is not a case of if he will break for a 60-yard touchdown but when. Commanders head coach Dan Quinn will be cursing the New York Giants for letting Barkley join their rivals.

Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs (6.30pm ET/11.30pm GMT)

Story of the season: Just as in 2023, the Chiefs were subpar for much of last year, rolling in the lower gears ready to strike in the playoffs. They remain the best-coached and most well-prepared team in the NFL. Their only stumbling block: the Bills. Josh Allen’s game-sealing touchdown run on fourth and two when the teams met in the regular season was a smudge on an otherwise pristine copybook. So can Buffalo do it again? Can Allen finally make a definitive mark after losing to Mahomes three times in the postseason? The pressure is on in what is sure to be another instant classic.

What Buffalo need to do to win: Run the ball. Kansas City’s defense has a weak spot that can be exploited by James Cook and Allen. The Chiefs have softened up somewhat since limiting the Bills to a respectable 104 rushing yards when they met in Week 11. In their past five games, Kansas City have allowed an average of 150 rushing yards, while the Bills have consistently dominated on the ground, averaging 170 yards in the eight games since beating the Chiefs. Crucially, in the playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos – the NFL’s best and third-best run stoppers in terms of total yards allowed in 2024 – each gave up a season-high total against Buffalo. If that is the damage Cook and Allen can do to opponents who specialise in shutting down runners then the duo will most likely cause Kansas City serious trouble.

What Kansas City need to do to win: Put the ball in Xavier Worthy’s hands. In head coach Andy Reid’s scheme, the speedy wide receiver can stretch Buffalo deep down the field. That should give Mahomes an explosive target to unlock a Bills secondary potentially missing star cornerback Christian Benford, who is in concussion protocol. Reid should also work in creative touches for Worthy when the Chiefs have the ball inside the red zone. He brings a crucial playmaking threat to support the more routine, efficient production of Travis Kelce. The Bills have struggled in tight games in the postseason in recent season, and jitters were evident again last week as Lamar Jackson rampaged in the second half. Reid can rely on Worthy to be an X-factor much as Tyreek Hill was in the Chiefs’ epic divisional-round win over Buffalo in 2022.

Key player for the Bills: Spencer Brown, right tackle. Brown has had a fantastic season protecting his quarterback and run blocking. Allen has been sacked only 17 times across his 19 games this season while Brown and his offensive line helped Buffalo score more than 30 points on 13 occasions. Most exciting for the Bills is that the 6ft 8in, 310lbs bruiser was missing from their regular-season win over the Chiefs. When they need to score, they can rely on Brown to do the dirty work that makes Allen shine.

Key player for the Chiefs: Jaylen Watson, cornerback. The difference for Kansas City could be Watson returning to the secondary. The defensive back, who missed the regular-season loss to the Bills, enjoyed a timely warm-up against Houston. The Chiefs’ coverage is exceptional with Trent McDuffie alongside him. They should allow Steve Spagnuolo to focus his defense on more important matters: stopping the run.

Prediction: Chiefs over Bills. This feels as close to the toss of a coin as it comes. Which style will have the greater influence on the outcome? The brute force of the Bills or the calm, rope-a-dope of the Chiefs? The 3-0 record over Allen in the postseason gives Kansas City the confidence to overcome the mighty Bills. Mahomes, as always, finds a way.