Welcome to Week 16! We’re officially to the part of the season where I can’t remember which games are on when and on which streaming services.

Throw in the new College Football Playoff, and I’m confident there will be football to bet on at every single moment of my holiday season, even if I don’t know exactly which games are when and where. What a thrill.

Below are my 10 favorite bets for the upcoming weekend of NFL action, with a same-game parlay to boot.

All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.

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Game picks | Props | Teaser and SGP

Game picks

Cincinnati Bengals -9 (-110) vs. Cleveland Browns

A bit of a puzzling quarterback change in Cleveland, as veteran Jameis Winston has been shelved in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Winston is far from a perfect quarterback — lots of unnecessary turnovers — but he brought life to an anemic Browns passing attack with his willingness to throw just about anything. In his place is Thompson-Robinson, a second-year pro who started three games last season and has had significant action in four total contests (five, if you want to include his nine passing attempts against the Kansas City Chiefs last week). In his career, he has a 51.4% completion rate and 1:7 TD to INT ratio.

I simply don’t see a world in which Thompson-Robinson keeps pace with Joe Burrow and the Bengals in what should be a high-scoring affair. Burrow is clearly still committed to playing quality games, showing his frustration with the team’s solid, but not dominant, win over the Tennessee Titans last week. Though Burrow has tended toward quieter outings against Cleveland, it looks as if he’s going to catch the Browns without CBs Greg Newsome II (injured reserve) and Martin Emerson Jr. (concussion). The talent difference between the Bengals’ star cast of receivers and Cleveland backup defensive backs Cameron Mitchell, Myles Harden and Mike Ford Jr. is too great to ignore.

I expect Cincinnati to get short fields from Thompson-Robinson turnovers, and I expect a fiery performance at home in a divisional game. Should be Bengals big.

Carolina Panthers UNDER 20.5 total points (-120)

How will you remember the “Panthers as favorites” era of football (2024 Week 15-2024 Week 15)? It was the best of times, the worst of times, et cetera.

Bryce Young‘s recent success throwing into tight windows caught some regression, and the Dallas Cowboys‘ pass rush dominated for much of the second half as the Panthers struggled to climb out of the hole. I had tagged this Cardinals defense as a bad matchup for Carolina’s offense and was anticipating a fade on them here, and last week’s performance only reinforced to me how fragile this offensive operation is. Even in their recent era of offensive “success,” the Panthers were not over this number against the Philadelphia Eagles and cleared it against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with only 30 seconds left in regulation.

Now they get an Arizona Cardinals defense that is structurally designed to take away explosive plays and force opposing offenses to execute perfectly down the field. The Panthers can run on Arizona’s defense, but the Cardinals don’t give up big runs, nor do they surrender big chunks through the air, which is how Young has been living recently, with long dropbacks and 50/50 balls to the intermediate and downfield levels. The Cardinals will play zone coverage and wait until they get the one Chuba Hubbard stop they need to force a third-and-long.

We should also expect Arizona to hold onto the ball for a while in this game. The Cardinals are at their best running the football, and the Panthers’ run defense is one of the weakest in the league. Arizona should have no issues sustaining long, physical drives, especially in the chillier weather expected in Charlotte this weekend. I like the overall under (47.5) in this one as well.

Player props

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Orlovsky: Ravens’ game vs. Steelers is ‘must win’ for Lamar Jackson

Dan Orlovsky says Saturday is a must-win game for Lamar Jackson against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16.

Lamar Jackson OVER 224.5 passing yards (-125)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the best defense against running quarterbacks this season and it’s not even a little bit close. They’ve given up only 12 scrambles all season (a league low) for just 43 yards, the lowest in the league by over 70 yards. That’s 3.6 yards per scramble; the next-best defense gives up 5.6. When Jackson played the Steelers early this season, he ran the ball only four times for 46 yards. He didn’t scramble once.

It’s rare to see a game in which all of Jackson’s dropbacks are converted to pass attempts (or sacks), but that’s what happened against Pittsburgh in this season’s first meeting, and it’s what the Steelers will try again. Jackson went 16-for-33 passing against the Steelers for 207 yards when the Baltimore Ravens played them last month — his only bad game as a passer all season. But watching that film again and looking at the data, it’s pretty clear Jackson should have had more raw production. Both Diontae Johnson and Zay Flowers dropped potential 30-plus-yard completions, and Jackson ended the game with 88 unrealized air yards. The Ravens simply couldn’t connect deep.

Assuming Jackson’s floor game was the one he played against Pittsburgh previously, we should expect a regression up to the mean in a must-win game for the AFC North race — and Jackson will be in his home stadium to boot. The Steelers are getting a little banged up on defense. Star edge rusher T.J. Watt was limited in Wednesday practice because of an ankle injury, but he said he felt good Thursday and has no injury designation for Saturday’s game. Safety DeShon Elliott, who has been a key piece of the Steelers’ defense this season, looks as if he’ll sit out another game because of his hamstring injury. And cornerback Donte Jackson has a pinched nerve in his back that probably will hold him out Saturday.

Everything here reads for a big Jackson passing day, but keep an eye on the availability of Ravens receiver Rashod Bateman (foot). I am comfortable with this number even if Bateman is unavailable, but if and when he’s announced out for Saturday’s game, this number might dip, and you can snag a better price.

Puka Nacua OVER 89.5 receiving yards (-105)

Nacua has clearly supplanted Cooper Kupp as the primary target for Matthew Stafford. Nacua had eight targets to Kupp’s three on “Thursday Night Football,” which is a drastic split, and Kupp has not out-targeted Nacua in any of the the Los Angeles Rams‘ past four games. In terms of yards per route run, Nacua (3.64) has Kupp (2.15) handily beat. On a first down plus touchdown rate, again, Nacua (43.2%) easily clears Kupp (26.5%). Nacua is the player whom this passing game runs through.

We should expect the New York Jets to surrender plenty of receiving production to Nacua. The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ primary target, Brian Thomas Jr., had 10 catches for 105 yards and two scores last week. Before that, Tyreek Hill had his best game of the season with a 10-115-1 line. Though the Jets expect to have both D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner on the field for this game, New York’s cornerback duo hasn’t been nearly the fearsome unit they were when Robert Saleh was the head coach. Since Week 6, the Jets have given up 9.0 yards per pass attempt to outside receivers, the seventh-highest mark in football.

Remember, the Rams control their destiny in the playoff race; win out, and they win the NFC West. Nacua has still seen his snaps throttled a little since returning from his knee injury, but with only three weeks left in the regular season, I imagine there will be little preserving of the young star. I’ll be taking an alt line of 100+ yards as well.

Nico Collins UNDER 6.5 receptions (-135)

I love Collins just as much as the next guy, but I don’t love this matchup as a high-volume opportunity for him. Collins is likely to draw coverage from Trent McDuffie, a lockdown CB1 who plays up at the line in press coverage. McDuffie has forced a tight window on 34.2% of his targets this season, 10th among qualifying corners (minimum 200 coverage snaps). The Chiefs under Steve Spagnuolo also love to address top receivers with bracket coverages and safety help, something I imagine a player of Collins’ talent warrants.

It’s hard to keep Collins to a completely quiet game. Even last week, when he had only four catches on six targets for 17 yards, he had two scores to deliver his damage anyway. But because Collins is targeted so far downfield, his big days can still come with low reception totals. He had 117 yards against the Indianapolis Colts this season with only six catches, and 92 yards against the Tennessee Titans with only five catches. And because the Chiefs will press their corners, he won’t as easily get free catches on screens, a big part of his role in this Texans offense.

With Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes expected to start, we should expect long drives from Kansas City that reduce the total number of plays the Texans get to run. Everything’s pulling me to a low-volume Collins game Saturday.

Jameson Williams OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-105)

Williams had an odd game against the Chicago Bears earlier this season. He saw high volume (seven targets), but at 6.57 air yards per target, it was his shallowest usage of the season save for Week 7 against the Minnesota Vikings in which he had only one target. Williams was an underneath stick-mover until he was called for a bad unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and didn’t have a target for the rest of the game.

Maybe something is up with Williams? He had a target on only 9.1% of his routes last week against the Buffalo Bills, totaling 37 receiving yards on a day in which his quarterback threw for 494 yards. Woof. I’m willing to buy the dip on a player who can clear 50 receiving yards in one catch, especially against a Chicago defense that surrenders 9.1 yards per target to opposing receivers this season. If Williams gets seven targets again against this Bears defense, as he did in the last meeting, he should clear this number comfortably.

Given the absence of David Montgomery, I’m also expecting the Detroit Lions to skew a little pass-heavier moving forward — and face more third-and-longs, as the ever-reliable 5-yard gain on first down that Montgomery provided is suddenly absent. Both of those lend me to more passing overs in Detroit, and Williams has the juiciest line. I gave some thought to tight end Sam LaPorta, as tight ends have been great against the Bears lately, but he was very quiet against Chicago a few weeks ago, and a lot of his production against the Bills came via garbage time freebies.

Caleb Williams OVER 24.5 rushing yards (-125)

We hit the over on Josh Allen‘s rushing yards last week against a Lions defense that struggles against scrambling quarterbacks, and we’re back to the well with Williams. A big change in Williams’ game after the promotion of Thomas Brown to offensive coordinator (and then interim head coach) was his willingness to tuck and run. He has had at least four carries in all five of the games since Brown was promoted, including a four-carry, 39-yard outing against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

Last week, he played one of the best scrambling defenses in football in the Vikings; they give up 5.3 yards per scramble a game, second only to the Steelers for the lowest number. The Lions are at 7.9. And with Detroit often building a big lead on offense, the opposing offense sees a lot of dropbacks and plenty of scrambling opportunities.

Williams and the Bears’ offense have struggled the past two weeks following a nice new-OC bump, but I’d imagine they’ll go back to some of what was working well when Brown first took over the offense. A big part of that was Williams’ legs, and the Lions’ defense is the perfect group to take out that chapter of the playbook for another spin.

Jonnu Smith OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-110)

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Can Jonnu Smith keep it rolling vs. the 49ers in Week 16?

Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down TE Jonnu Smith’s stellar fantasy play of late.

I’ve written about Smith overs enough times in this column that I should just direct you back to an old one and have you read the analysis there. Since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, Smith is averaging 63 receiving yards per game; in the past six weeks, he is averaging 73 receiving yards per game. This has not been an accident of explosive plays, either. Smith has had 50 targets over that span, tied for third among all tight ends. Teams that can successfully take away Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle force Tagovailoa to throw to his running back (De’Von Achane) and tight end (Smith).

What sort of team are the San Francisco 49ers? They’re excellent against wide receivers, with a great outside corner in Charvarius Ward and a great slot corner in Deommodore Lenoir. They will discourage attempts to Hill and Waddle and accordingly funnel opportunities to Smith. It might feel scary to back a tight end against Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga, two excellent cover men in the spine of the 49ers’ defense, but Smith is not used as a traditional tight end. His heavy dose of screens and shallows will protect him from blanket coverage and still give us plenty of opportunity to get home on this over.

The Miami Dolphins might be an untrustworthy team on the road or against winning teams, but the 6-8 49ers are visiting Hard Rock this week. It should be a good day.

Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)

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Why Jahmyr Gibbs is Mike Clay’s RB1 for Week 16

Mike Clay explains what David Montgomery’s injury means for Jahmyr Gibbs’ fantasy value.

Six-point teaser: New England Patriots +20/Lions -0.5 (-120)

The Lions travel to Chicago to face a Bears team that has lost eight consecutive games and has looked totally out of its depth in the Thomas Brown interim head coach era. Detroit’s defense is woefully banged up, but this is still a defense in the top 10 by EPA (expected points added) per play. Yes, the defense is worse now because of the injuries, but the Lions faced two top offenses in the Bills and Green Bay Packers. That is not the unit they’re drawing in Chicago.

I love Dan Campbell in this spot, where the Lions have finally dropped a game and are dealing with tons of injury — feels like an opportunity for him to rally the troops and snag a statement win. I have the Lions in a few teaser legs, but I’ll post here the Patriots at +20 against the Bills.

Buffalo’s defense should not be catching two touchdowns against any opposing offense; I don’t care how good the offense has been. It’s easy to retcon that Rams offense that put 44 points on Buffalo two weeks ago, but that was not a known elite unit before that game. The Bills’ lack of team speed in the back end leaves them liable to explosive plays, and their linebacking corps doesn’t bring size to the table. This is a gettable defense.

The Patriots’ offense is far from perfect, but it has improved week over week with Drake Maye at the helm. Since Week 4, this team is fourth in the league in success rate on dropbacks, behind only the Lions, Packers and Dolphins. The Bills should win handily, but the Patriots have plenty of firepower to score in the second half and keep this within a three-touchdown deficit.

SGP: Buccaneers OVER 26.5 total points, Mike Evans 90+ receiving yards, Bucky Irving 45+ rushing yards (+525)

The theory here is pretty simple: the Cowboys’ defense is not healed. Dallas has had better performances in the past month, including against the Washington Commanders and even the Bengals. The return of Micah Parsons, who I think would be the clear NFL Defensive Player of the Year if he played a full season, has been a huge part of this improvement.

But injuries are accumulating elsewhere. Young star linebacker DeMarvion Overshown is out for the rest of the season beccause of a knee injury; cornerback Trevon Diggs also had knee surgery; all three starting safeties (Malik Hooker, Donovan Wilson and Jourdan Lewis) were limited in Wednesday’s practice and probably will play banged-up. The Buccaneers are pretty well-equipped to minimize Parsons’ impact with one of the league’s best tackle duos between Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke. I think they’re going to get whatever they want against the Cowboys, and I love the over on the Bucs’ team total as a standalone bet.

Irving clearly can handle his typical workload despite his injuries; he has 15 carries and two catches in a big win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Even if he is splitting time with Rachaad White, Irving’s good to pop a big run to get to this number.

Regarding Evans, remember that he has 749 receiving yards with another three games left in the season as he pursues his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season. Nobody on Dallas is equipped to stop Evans, but even if he’s lagging below this number late in a Buccaneers lead, I would not be surprised if they funnel him some free yardage in pursuit of the number.