Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards, but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football and help with fantasy start sit decisions. I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in Fantasy Football air yards.

Week 6 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From D.K. Metcalf‘s 166 air yards down to George Kittle‘s 52. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us a significant number of takeaways from Week 5. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.

Top Takeaways From Week 6 Air Yards Data

Three-Pack of Donuts

Eleven players saw at least 100 air yards in Week 6, but three of them finished their respective games with zero receiving yards. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen anything like that in three years of reporting on air yards, so it’s worth looking at each of them to see what might be going on here. First is Calvin Ridley with his 133 air yards on eight targets with zero receptions. This can almost exclusively be blamed on Will Levis. He is just simply one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in the league right now. Even DeAndre Hopkins could only muster 54 receiving yards on 91 air yards. It probably won’t be this bad again for Ridley, but he is a bench candidate until further notice.

Marvin Mims saw 107 air yards on three targets from Bo Nix, and it doesn’t take a math genius to figure out that’s more than 33 air yards per target. Bo Nix is not accurate enough yet to make those throws downfield, so if that’s all Mims is going to get from the Broncos passing game, he doesn’t belong on our rosters right now.

Last we have Alec Pierce. This is an unusual one because Joe Flacco has been an accurate passer for the Colts when replacing Anthony Richardson. But Pierce’s average depth of target (aDOT) was over 26 yards in this game, so perhaps it was just a case of four bad passes thrown Pierce’s way. I am concerned, however, about Richardson returning, as he has been far less reliable downfield than Joe Flacco has been over the last 2.5 games.

Garrett Wilson’s Last Gasp

With Davante Adams now officially a member of the New York Jets, is this the last elite game we will see from Garrett Wilson? If so, he did everything he could to prove he is still one of the top-ten wideouts in the game. He generated targets (10), he caught eight passes, and he racked up the yards after the catch, finishing with 107 receiving yards on just 66 air yards. This might evolve into what Wilson’s game can be with Adams on board, a short-catch specialist who gains yards upfield with his speed.

We can’t completely write off Wilson yet, but it remains to be seen how he will adapt to playing alongside Adams and Allen Lazard, two of Aaron Rodgers‘ long-time boys. But there is no denying his fantasy value likely took a hit this week. Still, there might be hope. Over the last three games, the Jets have attempted 43.7 passes per game. That’s second in the league behind only Seattle. If we assume 10 of those passes go to running backs and tight ends, that can still leave 8-10 targets per game to each of the three wide receivers if Rodgers chooses to divide the wealth that way.

A.J. Brown Returns and Dominates

The cynical view of A.J. Brown‘s massive game against Cleveland on Sunday could look at it as Dallas Goedert getting hurt and more targets filtering to Brown might not be sustainable. I choose to look at it as Brown is such an alpha, dominating force that he commands targets, even with other strong pass-catchers lining up beside him. Brown’s 37.5% target share was third only behind Drake London and George Pickens. And his 62% air yards share was far and away the best in the league.

With Goedert likely now week to week with his hamstring injury, I think it’s extremely feasible for Brown to see 10-14 targets per game over the next month. Brown is the rare combination of size, speed, ball control, and high-point ability that motivates Jalen Hurts to get him 62% of the air yards. On the season, Brown’s 128 air yards per game ranks second only to Malik Nabers (135 air yards per game). When you compare the other pass-catchers Nabers has on his team to Brown’s, it’s easy to see how much Brown is dominating despite the massive talent around him.

Upside Down Tank Dell

It would seem as though 2024 Tank Dell is not anything like the 2023 version of Tank Dell, even with superstar wide receiver Nico Collins not around for four weeks. You may remember Dell’s 2023 rookie season where he averaged a 14.3-yard aDOT and scored seven long touchdowns in eight games. He had 1,070 air yards in just 10 games before he broke his leg and missed the rest of the season. Heading into 2024, the prevailing thought was Dell would once again be the deep threat while Collins and Diggs duked it out in the shorter field. Not so fast, my friend.

After Dell’s 71 air yards on nine targets Sunday, his aDOT for the season sits at a very low (for him) 9.5 yards. For comparison, Nico Collins is at 12 and Stefon Diggs is at 8.1. Other players with similar 9.5 aDOTs? Guys like Tyler Lockett and Ladd McConkey. These players are not deep threats at all. With nine targets and a 28% air yards share, Dell can still get to a strong fantasy value with volume, but when Nico Collins comes back, it might be a different story. In the first five weeks of the season, Tank Dell was just WR71 with 5.8 fantasy points per game.

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