Drama is beginning to erupt.
A four-time MVP is struggling in a way he never has. A forgotten NBA Draft pick is gaining importance. And a little-known rebounder has become a league-wide menace.
Let’s open the notebook and run through three NBA trends that have caught my eye over the past week.
An uncomfortable question is brewing in Los Angeles: Why are the Lakers so much worse whenever LeBron James touches the court?
For more than two decades, the mere presence of James has guaranteed his team competitive — nay, dominant — minutes. Now, he and the Lakers (12-10) can’t figure it out, a query that continued into Wednesday night, when the Miami Heat mauled them for their sixth loss in eight games.
The numbers have become impossible to hide, even if James’ all-time-great status grants him deserved leeway.
The Lakers are now 21.4 points per 100 possessions worse when James is on the court this season, according to Cleaning the Glass. And even if that chasm feels cavernous just from the looks of it, the raw stat still isn’t providing enough context.
This has never happened before. For much of James’ career, that figure hasn’t been just in the positives; it’s been at or near the top of the league. His former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, had seasons when they were 15-17 points better with James in games. Even in his less impactful campaigns, his teams were significantly better with him. Now, the metrics paint the opposite picture.
It’s not like there is one particular lineup dragging down James’ stats. No other Lakers player has an on-off rating worse than minus-6.5, 3 1/2 times better than James’.
The only qualifying players in the NBA with on-off stats in James’ range are a trio of Denver Nuggets reserves who suffer from a syndrome known as Jokić-mania. Playing mostly without three-time MVP Nikola Jokić on a team Jokić is on is the greatest way to doom your on-offs.
At least through 22 games, this is not usual James production.
A lower percentage of his shots are coming at the rim than ever. He has never gotten to the free-throw line this little, either. He just missed 20 consecutive 3-pointers across five games. On the other side, Los Angeles allows way more 3s when he’s on the court. His team defense has been laissez-faire, though maybe that’s what comes when someone who turns 40 in less than a month has to carry the offensive burden that he does. After all, we’ve never before seen someone this age be even this productive — and no question about it, James is still productive, averaging 22 points, eight rebounds and nine assists.
Yet, the counting stats aren’t leading to winning basketball.
There is hope for the Lakers. They probably won’t continue to sink this low when James is around, even if nothing changes. They are shooting terribly from deep when James is on the court, and their opponents have caught fire from 3 whenever he plays. Normally, a difference so large (in this case, Lakers opponents ratchet up their long-range shooting about 10 percentage points when James is in the game) comes back to Earth over time. And once it does, the Lakers will no longer be 21.4 points per 100 possessions worse when James plays.
But that won’t make up for the entire difference. Not close.
It’s too early to declare this a new stage of James’ career. But 22 games of evidence is enough to ask what is going on. And what can the Lakers do not just to halt this trend but to flip it?
When Atlanta flipped Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans this summer, it placed an indirect wager in the process: that the Hawks would be better than the Lakers.
The package in return for Murray included Los Angeles’ 2025 unprotected first-round pick. Along with Dyson Daniels, who has emerged as one of the league’s feistiest perimeter defenders, this was the gem of the deal. And yet, it didn’t seem as if the Hawks were recouping much for Murray, whom they sent a massive haul to the San Antonio Spurs for in 2022. Now, their own pick is in a faceoff with the Lakers’ during a season in which Los Angeles was supposed to outpace Atlanta.
The Spurs own the Hawks’ 2025 first-rounder. The Hawks own the Lakers’. And at this point, it’s fair to wonder if the Lakers’ pick will be the better one, which few people could have predicted even as recently as a couple of months ago.
The Hawks are 12-11; the Lakers are 12-10. But Los Angeles has to battle through the Western Conference and already boasts the net rating of a sub-.500 team. Atlanta can cruise through the East, where finishing above .500 could be enough to rise above the NBA Play-In Tournament. If the season ended today, the Hawks would be in the playoffs and the Lakers would not, meaning Atlanta could feel a tad better about the deal that originally landed it Murray, even if his tenure there didn’t go how it hoped it would.
GO DEEPER
Zaccharie Risacher might not be a typical No. 1 pick, but he’s a good fit with Hawks
Charlotte Hornets big man Taj Gibson is already preparing a protege for the big time. As Diabaté continues to make a name for himself, Gibson tells him, defenses will continue to swarm him on the glass.
It has not yet made a difference.
Diabaté, a 22-year-old who spent his first two seasons with the LA Clippers, has emerged as a regular in the Hornets rotation. A quarter of the way through the schedule, he is having the best season of any NBA player currently on a two-way contract. The scrawny, 6-foot-11 center can switch onto smaller players, lending Charlotte much-needed defensive versatility. But defense is not the highlight when Diabaté plays, nor are his paltry 3 points in 20 minutes a game.
Only a couple of players are devouring offensive rebounds as often as he is, and no one is doing it in the same way.
Diabaté entered Thursday’s action third in the NBA in offensive-rebound rate, behind only Golden State Warriors veteran Kevon Looney and Portland Trail Blazers rookie Donovan Clingan.
Looney will stay low to the ground while hunting an offensive board, as if he is hiding in tall grass, stalking his prey. Opponents can’t move him. But Diabaté isn’t nearly as methodical. His first jump is quick. His second jump somehow seems quicker. He’s not as meticulous, and he’ll acknowledge it.
“All I do is crash into other people,” Diabaté told The Athletic.
But my goodness, he is a wonder of a crash-test dummy. He’s not carving out space like Looney, but he doesn’t need it. He’ll see daylight between two big men and slither through it. His second effort often bests everyone else’s.
Watch him soar for this offensive board, fall while trying to kick it back out and still somehow be the first one to get his hands on another miss:
He’s particularly adept at snagging air balls that fall short of the rim. As the nine players around him wait for the basketball to clank off the rim or possibly go through it, he has already left his feet.
“It’s just me playing hard,” Diabaté said. “I don’t think it’s a skill.”
Agree to disagree.
Understanding where the basketball is heading is a talent, even if Diabaté won’t say so.
(Photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
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