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I saw the movie “Megalopolis” so you don’t have to. I cannot stress enough that it is worse than you’ve been told.

Take the Over! Teams who should exceed expectations

It’s about that time, Bouncers! We’re less than three weeks away from the start of the 2024-25 NBA season. You know what that means, right? No, I’m not leading you toward a Ben Simmons discussion (more on him later). And I don’t want to talk second aprons, for at least three months. I’m talking about over/unders!

Our buddy John Hollinger went to the lab to give you five teams he believes will exceed their BetMGM win totals for this season. Granted, he went 1-for-5 last season with this, but that was just some bad luck! (It is hard.) For this season, I agree with three of his picks, and I’ve got a handful of teams of my own to believe in (or not):

Agree with Hollinger — take the over!

• Suns | 46.5 wins: The Mike Budenholzer effect! Remember, regular-season bets have nothing to do with his struggles in the postseason. He’s an excellent regular-season coach, and the Suns finally have point guards. This is an easy over.
• Thunder | 56.5 wins: Unless half of this roster decides to go back to high school because they still have eligibility, I can’t see the Thunder winning fewer than 60 games. They won 57 games last year and added Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason.
• Pistons | 24.5 wins: Monty Williams was just so bad as a coach last season. J.B. Bickerstaff is a very good coach, and there is just no way the Pistons can be as awful as they were last year. A 25-win team isn’t good, but this is at least a 25-win team.

Five teams I have an eye on

• Grizzlies | 47.5 wins: I don’t know! I felt great about the over on this one before yesterday’s news of a Jaren Jackson Jr. hamstring strain. We don’t know the extent yet, so I would avoid this completely for now.
• Wizards | 20.5 wins: Under! Unless Jordan Poole matured immensely, I cannot look at this roster and think there are even 20 wins coming. I don’t think Malcolm Brogdon will be available enough to make up for Tyus Jones’ departure.
• Spurs | 36.5 wins: Over! Chris Paul almost always has a major impact in his first year with a team. Sure, it’s not the same CP3 at 39, but it’s also not the same Victor Wembanyama. This is a 40-win squad.
• Warriors | 43.5 wins: Over! Granted, I’m banking on Draymond Green not getting suspended a bunch, but this is a 45-win team — or better.
• Celtics | 58.5 wins: Over! I don’t care about the Kristaps Porziņģis injury. Without any other big injuries, the defending champs should easily clear 60 wins.

The Latest From Shams: More details on Wolves-Knicks deal

The trade between the Timberwolves and Knicks involving former All-Stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Julius Randle is almost official, and we’ve learned more details about the blockbuster move.

The Hornets are involved as the third team and are receiving three second-round picks (two via the Knicks and one via Minnesota), along with DaQuan Jeffries, Charlie Brown and Duane Washington Jr., to complete the trade, league sources tell Jon Krawczynski, Fred Katz and me.

Charlotte is also trading James Nnaji, the No. 31 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, to New York to finalize the deal, according to those sources.

Wendell Cruz / Imagn Images

Best Behavior: Keep an eye on these players in contract years

Speaking of betting: Bet on yourself! That’s the phrase everybody loves to overuse when a player tries to prove their value on the court before free agency. And you can often get some great seasons of basketball from those players.

Going into this season, there are 15 notable players who will or could be free agents in summer 2025. (Minus LeBron, because c’mon, he’s not leaving his kid.) There are player options to decide! There are extensions that can be signed! Or they can bet on themselves and take it to free agency. Let’s break it down:

Outright free agents 🤑

• Ben Simmons, Nets: After this season, he will have made over $200 million in his career. So he’s not hurting for money (I don’t think). If the 28-year-old wants any kind of good payday on a short-term deal next summer, he has to actually play — and then play well.
• Brandon Ingram, Pelicans: Is he going to get traded or ride out the year with the Pels? He’s their second-best player, but it’s getting kind of crowded on the perimeter. Most of all, the 27-year-old needs to be healthy.
• Brook Lopez, Bucks: The 36-year-old giant can still command a healthy salary, and his back appears to be fine. He could be in high demand if the Bucks don’t throw him an extension.
• Myles Turner, Pacers: The team is painted into a corner, and they have to give Turner, 28, a monster payday to keep him. He has a chance to be one of the top free agents if he plays great.
• Bruce Brown Jr., Raptors: Not sure he’ll command $20 million-plus annually in his next deal, but the 28-year-old could get traded and have another big impact on winning.

Has a player option and should pick it up 👍

• Jimmy Butler, Heat | $52.4M option: No hair shenanigans on media day, sadly. However, the 35-year-old would be foolish to decline $50 million next season. He’s seeking one more payday.
• Julius Randle, Timberwolves | $30.9M option: Tobias Harris just got $52 million over two years, but I still think Randle, 29, should pick up his option no matter what.
• Khris Middleton, Bucks | $34M option: The 33-year-old is already dealing with injuries heading into this season. File the paperwork now.

Has a player option and should decline 👎

• Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves | $46.7M option: Karl-Anthony Towns is gone. The Wolves have committed to Gobert as their big man. The 32-year-old should decline and get a new four-year deal.
• Kyrie Irving, Mavericks | $44M option: If he has another season like last year, the Mavs can’t afford to let him walk. Irving, 32, can get another monster deal.
• James Harden, Clippers | $36.3M option: Paul George is gone. Kawhi Leonard is hurt. At 35, James wants to be Houston Harden again. Make the Clippers pay you.
• Aaron Gordon, Nuggets | $22.8M option: Once KCP left, the Nuggets couldn’t afford to lose Gordon. The 29-year-old can get $35 million-plus annually.
• Naz Reid, Timberwolves | $15M option: Towns is gone. They won’t sign Randle long-term. Reid, 25, can ball out like last year and get an easy nine figures next summer.
• Dorian Finney-Smith, Nets | $15.4M option: At 31, just get out of Brooklyn and go get paid as a 3-and-D wing.

Team option that shouldn’t get picked up ⛔

Wendell Cruz / Imagn Images

WNBA Playoffs: Liberty on pace for a coronation

Don’t look now, but we’re one step closer to seeing a new champion in the WNBA. After last night’s action, we’ve got some stars on the ropes and a real battle between Connecticut and Minnesota. Let’s dive into the New York Liberty’s win over the defending back-to-back champion Las Vegas Aces, and what’s going on between the Sun and the Lynx. (Reminder! This round features best-of-five series.)

Liberty 88, Aces 84 | Liberty lead series 2-0: We didn’t see some heroic effort by Breanna Stewart in this one, but the Liberty dominated the paint for much of the game and survived a flurry of chances for the Aces to tie the series up before heading back to Sin City. Sabrina Ionescu was fantastic, leading the way with 24 points, nine rebounds and five assists. She had 11 of those 24 points in the fourth quarter, and the Aces did very little to help A’ja Wilson (24 points, seven rebounds, four assists).

The Liberty have made the WNBA Finals five times in their history and never won a title. They’re four wins away from finally pulling it off, but they have to put the champs away on the road. They can do so by continuing to get into the paint on offense.

Lynx 77, Sun 70 | Series tied at 1-1: Likewise, no massive numbers for Napheesa Collier in this one. She only had nine points on 14 shots, but did show up with 12 boards, five assists and four blocks. The Lynx were sloppy with the ball, turning it over 15 times. They survived an ugly 12-10 first quarter. But Minnesota controlled the entire game to avoid an 0-2 hole going to Connecticut. Courtney Williams took over in the second half to lead the team with 17 points on the night. And the Lynx survived a late push from the Sun. Connecticut did what they came to do — get a split. Now Minnesota has to take back home court.

Game 3 for both series is Friday evening (watch on ESPN2 and stream on Fubo.)

Bounce Passes

CP3 and the Spurs are a perfect match.

Law Murray ranked every team’s depth chart. Argue in the comments!

Lauri Markkanen wants to be in Utah. Will they trade him?

Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: Dikembe Mutombo’s iconic finger-wave commercial. RIP.

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(Top photo: Patrick Breen / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)