With the major business of the 2024 NBA offseason complete, the larger picture for summer 2025 and beyond looks far clearer as well.

The NBA last month announced new 11-year TV deals with ESPN, NBC and Amazon Prime Video. Those deals, worth $77 billion in total, begin with the 2025-26 season and virtually assure that the salary cap will rise the full 10 percent allowable by the collective bargaining agreement, meaning a projected $154.6 million salary cap and $187.9 million luxury tax threshold.

Only four teams seem extremely likely to wield cap space next summer, and only two of those four (the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards) project to have enough to offer a 30 percent max contract without shedding additional salary. That should change the thinking for 2025 free agents in terms of extensions. While things will shift, it looks like a narrow and not particularly enticing set of suitors for players expecting more than $15 million in starting salary.

Those extensions, plus trades and other signings, will change things over the next year, but this is a good time to examine what next offseason may look like team by team.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are over the second apron without anything committed to Al Horford or filling out the roster, so it would take a significant development to change their overall situation. A key question is when ownership — whoever it may be — feels enough of a sting from the CBA’s second apron restrictions to duck under, but the reigning champions likely bear that burden longer than anyone else because of their quality both now and moving forward. Still, it will come into play at some point.

Brooklyn Nets

The Mikal Bridges trade clearly put the Nets in a new phase. That likely involves wielding cap space in the summer of 2025; right now, they’re projected to have between $44 million and $65 million and could easily open up more by making trades involving Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and others after getting back their 2025 and 2026 first-round draft picks from the Houston Rockets this summer. That said, GM Sean Marks could lower that cap-space number between now and then by taking on multi-season salary in trades that send out veterans if doing so produces a stronger asset return. Still, expect the Nets to be one of the few cap-space teams in 2025.

New York Knicks

Jalen Brunson’s team-friendly extension makes things much easier for the 2025-26 season, where the Knicks are roughly $5 million under the projected tax if Julius Randle picks up his player option. It seems likely they will be able to stay under the second apron for now, but that could change in 2026-27 when Bridges likely gets a raise via extension or new contract.

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Philadelphia 76ers

After accomplishing the unusual double of using max cap space and also paying the tax for the 2024-25 season thanks to Tyrese Maxey’s low cap hold, the Sixers look to be in the tax for the foreseeable future unless they make downgrades on the margins. The biggest question for next summer is whether they will have enough wiggle room under the second apron to use the projected $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception (MLE) or whether they will need to stick to Bird rights and minimums.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are $29 million below the tax, which may or may not be enough to retain Bruce Brown and use the $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE. Depending on how the season goes, the outcome may be one of those two plus re-signing restricted free agent Davion Mitchell.

Central Division

Chicago Bulls

Even with the departures of DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso, the Bulls will function as an over-the-cap team with the retention of Josh Giddey unless they are somehow able to offload Zach LaVine or Nikola Vučević without taking on long-term money. They should still be able to use the full $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE while staying under the luxury tax, even without other major moves, so they will have some spending power.

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Cleveland Cavaliers

Assuming Evan Mobley gets the 25 percent max rather than qualify for the 30 percent one (which would cost Cleveland an extra $7.7 million in 2025-26), the Cavaliers will only be about $8 million below the tax not counting anything for Isaac Okoro or filling out the roster, so even using the nontaxpayer MLE will be difficult without other moves. If Dan Gilbert is willing to pay a modest amount of luxury tax, they made be able to retain Okoro and use the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE.

Detroit Pistons

After extending Cade Cunningham and committing to two seasons of Tobias Harris, the Pistons are only looking at around $20 million in space plus the projected $8.8 million room exception, and that includes waiving Paul Reed to clear his $8.1 million non-guaranteed salary. Depending on where their draft pick ends up, it’s possible the Pistons stay over the cap, which could lead to them dealing Tim Hardaway Jr. to take on a longer contract if someone is looking to shed multi-season salary at the trade deadline.

Indiana Pacers

Giving Andrew Nembhard an extension that replaces his minimum salary with an $18.1 million payday took a chunk out of the Pacers’ spending power. They’ll be only $29 million under the tax with nothing for their draft pick or pending free agents Myles Turner and Isaiah Jackson. Is that enough to keep Turner? Will ownership finally pay the tax? The 2025-26 season likely answers those questions, but there are some big choices ahead for the franchise even with Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam signed long term.

Milwaukee Bucks

If Khris Middleton picks up his player option, the Bucks will be about $7 million below the projected tax with nothing for Brook Lopez. It may be possible to retain Lopez and still stay under the second apron if they can get Middleton to opt out and agree to a lower salary on a multi-season agreement. Considering the escalating consequences of staying over the second apron, that feels likely as of now.

Khris Middleton has a player-option decision to make next summer. (Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

After sending Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans, it looks like the Hawks will be clear of the luxury tax for both this season and 2025-26 even if they do not shed additional long-term salary. Their big question is whether $59 million will be enough to retain Jalen Johnson via extension or restricted free agency while also using the full projected $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE.

Charlotte Hornets

There are not many franchises that look to have the choice of whether to use cap space or stay over, and the Hornets are one of them because of a team option on Vasilije Micić, Tre Mann’s restricted free agency and non-guarantees for both Cody Martin and Nick Richards. The swing factor may end up being their 2025 draft pick, but as of now, the choice looks to be between roughly $21 million in space plus the $8.8 million room exception or staying over, which would allow them to retain players using Bird rights plus the $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE and $5.1 million biannual exception for new additions.

Miami Heat

Their future totally depends on Jimmy Butler. He can become a free agent next offseason, and if he returns, the Heat are likely a tax team even if they waive Duncan Robinson, who has an early termination option that is only partially guaranteed. If Butler takes his talents elsewhere, the Heat could potentially open up a small amount of cap space ($22 million or so), though in that circumstance, they could try to offload more salary to truly transform the roster.

Orlando Magic

Franz Wagner has already inked his extension, and the Magic are right at the luxury tax line with Jalen Suggs at his $27.6 million cap hold, so anything more than that for him may require some squeezing. They do have team options on both Moritz Wagner and Gary Harris, which may need to provide the wiggle room if ownership is unwilling to pay the tax for one of the NBA’s most exciting young squads.

Washington Wizards

Monumental Basketball president Michael Winger’s eventful tenure has finally made the Wizards a clearly rebuilding team, and they are looking at roughly $44 million in cap space next summer even with Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole still on the books. That offseason may not be the right time to strike, but the Wizards have financial flexibility from now until roughly 2029, when their current rookies will start new contracts, so they have a lot of different windows to add talent.

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks

The Western Conference champions are only $17 million below the projected tax line, including nothing for pending restricted free agents Jaden Hardy and Quentin Grimes. That number also includes Kyrie Irving picking up his player option rather than declining it to secure a raise on a longer-term contract. My instinct is that the Mavericks pay the tax in 2025-26 but not too big of a bill.

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Houston Rockets

As of now, the Rockets are the most compelling franchise for the 2025 offseason. GM Rafael Stone faces the choice between keeping this roster together or opening up as much as $69 million in cap space, but the second path likely requires saying goodbye to Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green while also hoping Alperen Şengün is as patient as Maxey. (The maximizing-cap-space route also requires using Şengün’s low cap hold so he would not be able to sign an extension this offseason.) While the truly massive fireworks feel unlikely at this point, it’s a situation worth watching at the rookie-scale-extension deadline, as Green is extension-eligible.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are over the cap but $31 million below the luxury tax, which should be enough to use the $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE and retain one or both of Santi Aldama and Luke Kennard.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are $63 million under the projected tax. That may sound like a lot, but that includes nothing for Brandon Ingram or Trey Murphy III (restricted), so the finances could get tricky in New Orleans. That likely is true whether or not Ingram gets traded because the front office presumably wants whatever they get in return to be on the team beyond this season.

San Antonio Spurs

Shockingly, the 2025-26 Spurs have less than a max slot. They are looking at about $28 million in cap space before adding potential draft picks, so it projects to be more like $15 million to $20 million (plus the $8.8 million room exception), as their own pick and the Hawks’ unprotected selection could come at a big combined price tag. While they could open up more spending power in 2025, I am fascinated to see how their front office thinks about 2026, because they could have massive space before Victor Wembanyama’s inevitable extension begins in 2027.

How might the Spurs continue building around Victor Wembanyama next summer? (Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets

After letting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk this summer, the Nuggets should be able to stay under the second apron again for the 2025-26 season even if Jamal Murray gets the 30 percent max via extension or a new contract and Aaron Gordon opts out for a raise. If Gordon’s next deal comes in higher than projected, there’s a chance the second apron comes into play, and ownership will have to decide whether to pay it or offload other salaries.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are right at the second apron if Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid pick up their player options. While Reid, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, seems likely to opt out for a larger payday in Minnesota or elsewhere, do not be surprised if Gobert opts out to secure a longer commitment at a lighter annual salary. By the summer of 2025, the Wolves’ ownership situation should be resolved, and we’ll see what ownership is willing to spend in the near and long term.

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Oklahoma City Thunder

Even after this summer’s spending, the Thunder are narrowly over the cap for next season with no one ready for a new contract after they moved early on new deals with Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. GM Sam Presti will have plenty of latitude to use the $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE but may want to do so on a one-year deal because both Chet Holmgren’s and Jalen Williams’ big raises arrive in 2026-27.

Portland Trail Blazers

Acquiring significant long-term salary in the Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades meant that the Blazers cannot reasonably wield cap space before 2026 even if they trade veterans such as Jerami Grant. Instead, expect them to duck the tax, and that may preclude them from using the nontaxpayer MLE, depending on who is still on the team next summer. As of now, the Blazers are only $15.8 million below the projected tax, and that does not include what will likely be a strong lottery pick taking a chunk out of that wiggle room.

Utah Jazz

Renegotiating-and-extending Lauri Markkanen clarified the Jazz’s future, and they’ll likely function as an over-the-cap team next summer if John Collins picks up his player option. If Collins opts out and leaves, Utah could open up around $30 million in space, but CEO Danny Ainge may prefer to wait until 2026, when the Jazz could have space for a max contract and significantly more knowledge about their young core.

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Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors

An eventful offseason left the Warriors outside the second apron for the first time in a while, and that will continue through the 2025-26 campaign as well. They are roughly $49 million below the projected tax without anything for pending restricted free agents Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. Is that enough to retain both and use the $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE or retain 2024 signing De’Anthony Melton? Probably not.

LA Clippers

While they could theoretically open up a small amount of cap space (and more if James Harden opts out and leaves), the Clippers are more likely to stay over the cap by retaining Ivica Zubac and/or Terance Mann either via extension or new contracts next summer. That said, as long as their combined price tag is within expectations, team president Lawrence Frank may be able to use the $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE for the first time in a long time to add another rotation player or a starter/closer.

Los Angeles Lakers

With Anthony Davis’ extension kicking in for the 2025-26 season, even if LeBron James opts in rather than opting out to maximize his 2025-26 salary, the Lakers are only $7 million below the projected tax line with nothing for D’Angelo Russell or filling out their roster. As such, expect the Lakers to be a tax team, with Russell being the key variable determining whether they approach the second apron or are able to use the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE.

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Phoenix Suns

All the Suns will have to offer are Bird rights and minimums deals, because they are an eye-popping $18 million over the second apron even without filling out their roster.

Sacramento Kings

Even after adding DeRozan this summer, the Kings are stable financially. They are far enough under the tax to use the full $14.1 million nontaxpayer MLE and fill out the roster. That gets trickier for the 2026-27 campaign, when both De’Aaron Fox and Keegan Murray will need new contracts.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: David Berding, David Dow / Getty Images)