NBA Reliability Tiers: From LeBron to Luka, league’s top stars populate our top 10

Posted by Admin October 25, 2024 NBA

Welcome to The Athletic’s NBA Reliability Tiers, in which we measure the All-NBA status of the 49 All-Stars during the last three seasons and weigh how much those stars play in the regular season. Each day we have a new tier. Tier 1 is the final installment.

Tier 5/ Methodology intro | Tier 4 | Tier 3 | Tier 2

This is Tier 1, the top 10. These players are the faces of the league and the most available of the top stars lead this list.

They’re the short list of realistic MVP candidates, but these Reliability Tiers don’t give extra credit for awards that went to one player a season; the Player Participation Policy only sets the bar at All-Star and All-NBA selections. In any case, the league can’t ever be too mad at these players, even though they are going to get mad at teams because players not playing are often teams’ decisions.

Five of these players played Thursday night, and four are set to play Friday. The outlier is Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid. If anything, Embiid is penalized for the criteria we have set for the Reliability Tiers. This simply awards points for levels of All-NBA selections for the All-Stars, weighs them toward the most recent selections, and measures out the product of regular-season games played.

Embiid, the 2023 NBA Most Valuable Player, does not get any additional credit for winning the game’s top individual regular-season award. And he does not get any additional credit for the dominant pace he was on last season when he was averaging an NBA-high 36 points per game entering the penultimate day of January 2024.

But Jan. 30, 2024 changed the conversation about the Player Participation Policy’s push for stars to play in games as well as the new Collective Bargaining Agreement’s mandate for players to appear in 65 games if they are to qualify for the individual awards. The 76ers were visiting the Golden State Warriors, a nationally televised game, and Embiid was set to play in his 34th game of the season. Embiid missed the previous two games in Denver (also on national TV) and Portland, bringing his total to 12 missed games. Embiid, already named an All-Star starter, could only miss a maximum of five more games to qualify for MVP.

Instead, Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga crashed onto Embiid’s leg, causing a meniscus injury that required a procedure. Embiid missed two months, officially costing him a chance to repeat for MVP, but also a spot on the All-NBA team. Embiid returned to play in April and played more than 36 minutes in each postseason game, but he looked restricted. In the summer, Embiid participated in the United States national team’s quest to win a gold medal. Embiid was held out of early practices and looked out of rhythm most of the tour, but unlike Kawhi Leonard, Embiid was able to stay on the team and in the lineup.

Now, more than two months since the Olympics ended, Embiid has declared that he will likely not play on zero days rest for the rest of his career. Embiid also is not yet in condition to play for the 76ers to begin the season, prompting a league investigation because of Philadelphia head coach Nick Nurse stating that Embiid is not injured. The reality is, Embiid is one of the most valuable players in the league, and last year was an outlier in terms of just how many games he missed. Embiid’s talent and production has been elite, but his availability has not been.

The player that Embiid is often compared to is Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić, especially when Embiid misses a game in Denver. Embiid is the only player to break Jokić’s streak of MVP awards since 2020, and even in that season, Jokić earned a Finals MVP and a championship that validated all of his regular season accolades. Jokić is an easy pick for “best player in the league” and a safe pick.

Jokić is also remarkably durable, and the player around which the entire Denver offense revolves. Jokić is the team’s leading scorer, he is the leading rebounder and he is the leading playmaker. Of the 11 players who averaged more points and three players who averaged more assists than Jokić, none of them played more games last season.

No, Jokić missing out on an All-NBA First Team selection in 2023 is not why he did not top this list, nor is it because Jokić has some kind of shortcoming. Yes, Jokić would top this list if the NBA considered MVP awards as part of the Player Participation Policy. That also means Embiid would be higher, although the criticism Embiid gets makes it seem like he shouldn’t be considered as high in these rankings.

Yes, players like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo would benefit if past MVP awards were considered. But these rankings are not lifetime achievement awards (even if a lot of the All-NBA selections are at times). This sample only considers what has happened over the last three NBA seasons. Besides, past MVP award winners among the last 49 All-Stars also include James Harden and Russell Westbrook; Harden is an All-Star and All-NBA snub away from falling off of this list entirely next year, while Westbrook hasn’t been an All-Star or All-NBA selection since 2020.

And yes, it does mean that reigning NBA champion Jayson Tatum would be lower if the MVP award would be considered. But it isn’t. In the eyes of the Player Participation Policy and the star criteria that the league has set, Tatum is on the same level as the best players in the game. He has achieved First Team honors consistently. And as durable as Jokić is renowned for being, the reason Jokić doesn’t top this list is: Tatum has played in more games than Jokić (224 to 222) — and for more minutes (8,108 to 7,536) — in the last three regular seasons.

If what you want is the best players playing in as many games as possible, objectively, then it is easy to praise Jokić. These rankings do that. But credit is due to Tatum for the level of play he has established while playing more regular-season minutes than any NBA player, star or non-star, except for Mikal Bridges and DeMar DeRozan, And those minutes from Tatum were validated finally with playoff success in June, as he’s the only player in the top-10 who has played in each of the last three conference finals.

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Tier 1

Average games played last three seasons: 74.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-NBA Third Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA Third Team

Sabonis was not an All-Star last season, but he was named to the All-NBA Third Team for the second year in a row after leading the NBA in rebounds back-to-back seasons. Sabonis also played in all 82 games, making him the first perfect attendance All-NBA selection since Nikola Jokić in 2021 and the first to play in 82 games since Kemba Walker in 2019. The only other players in the league who played 82 games and averaged more than 30 minutes were Jalen Green, Austin Reaves and Mikal Bridges, three players who have never been All-Stars. Sabonis also led the Kings in assists with 8.2 per game, second only to Jokić among centers.

Average games played last three seasons: 74.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA First Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA Second Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA First Team, 2024 All-Star

Jokić has won MVP or finals MVP each of the last four seasons, and no player has touched the ball more in the entire league since Jokić first led the Nuggets to the playoffs in 2019. Jokić has also never missed a playoff game in his career, and he has only missed 24 games over the last three seasons.

Average games played last three seasons: 67.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA First Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA First Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA First Team, 2024 All-Star

Antetokounmpo will finally turn 30 years old in December, and he is the best forward in basketball. The only other player in NBA history with back-to-back seasons of 30 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists is Oscar Robertson back in 1962. Antetokounmpo isn’t higher on this list because he does miss time, and sometimes at the worst moments. Last season was the first time in six years that Antetokounmpo didn’t miss 10 games in a regular season. But unfortunately, he suffered a left calf strain a week before the playoffs and it canceled Antetokounmpo’s postseason entirely. The only time Antetokounmpo has made it through a postseason without injury over the last five years was in 2022, which has been a factor in why the Bucks have won only one playoff series since their 2021 championship.

Average games played last three seasons: 67.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA First Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA First Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA First Team, 2024 All-Star

No player dominates the ball like Dončić, who is now a fixture on the All-NBA First Team. Embiid’s injury allowed Dončić to win his first scoring title, and he added a career-best 9.8 assists per game as well. Dončić has plenty of playoff moments, but his conditioning and durability are yellow flags. In 2022, he missed the first three games of the postseason due to a calf strain. The Mavericks won the Western Conference finals a year after failing to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, and the conversation about all of the maladies Dončić was playing with persisted throughout the spring. Even this month, Dončić dealt with a calf injury that cost him preseason games. He does get credit for never missing more than 17 games in a season, which just so happens to be the cut-off for individual awards now. .

Average games played last three seasons: 66.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-NBA First Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA First Team, 2024 All-Star

Gilgeous-Alexander is the highest-ranked player on this list who was not an All-Star each of the last three seasons (SGA didn’t make the All-Star Game in 2022). In his first three seasons in Oklahoma City, Gilgeous-Alexander never played a game in April. But he made a star turn in 2022-23 and showed last year that he is an MVP candidate for the top seed in the West. Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the most dominant on-ball players in the league while maintaining exceptional efficiency. The only other players with multiple seasons of 30 points, five assists and 50 percent shooting from the field besides Gilgeous-Alexander are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Tier 1

Average games played last three seasons: 65.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Second Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA Second Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA Third Team, 2024 All-Star

Similar to Kevin Durant and LeBron James, Curry set a seven-year high for games played last season, appearing in 74 contests. It still wasn’t enough for the Warriors to survive the Play-In Tournament. Curry got some consolation with an Olympic gold medal this summer, but he is now entering his age-36 season. Golden State’s system helps reduce Curry’s touches compared to most point guards, especially when Draymond Green is available. But Curry is one of the oldest small guards in the league. He overcame a foot injury a month before the 2022 playoffs to win NBA Finals MVP while missing time in 2022-23 due to shoulder and leg injuries. Curry hasn’t played in 70 games in back-to-back seasons since 2017, but he remains one of the most feared performers in the game.

Golden State Warriors

Tier 1

Average games played last three seasons: 57.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Second Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA First Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Embiid may be the most skilled center in the league, and he won the 2023 MVP award while leading the league in scoring in back-to-back seasons. He was headed for another MVP conversation and possible scoring title last year, but he became the face of the 65-game award rule when he suffered an injury to his left knee that required surgery. It was the first time Embiid missed more than 22 games in a regular season since 2017. While Embiid managed to play every playoff game for only the second time in seven years, his field goal percentage was under 50 percent for the third year in a row, as he was hampered by his injury. After laboring through the Olympics, Embiid is being held out by the Sixers. Embiid is 30 now, and how he progresses physically is one of the most consequential developments in the East this season.

Philadelphia 76ers

Tier 1

Average games played last three seasons: 59.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Second Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA Second Team, 2024 All-Star

Durant is coming off of his healthiest season in years, as he played in his most games (75) since tearing his right Achilles’ tendon in the 2019 NBA Finals. Durant also played his most total minutes since leading the NBA in that category in 2014. The Suns needed every bit of it to avoid the Play-In Tournament last year. Durant’s previous two seasons were upended by a right MCL sprain before him being traded from Brooklyn, a left ankle sprain ahead of what was supposed to be his Suns debut and a left MCL sprain in his final full season with the Nets. Durant will attempt to play 60 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since leaving Golden State in 2019 while entering his age-36 season.

Average games played last three seasons: 60.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Third Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA Third Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA Third Team, 2024 All-Star

James is coming off a season where he led the Los Angeles Lakers in touches per game but had his fewest touches per game since leaving Cleveland in 2018. That coincided with the most accurate 3-point shooting season of his career (41 percent) and his fewest missed games (11) since 2020. James has never missed a playoff game. But James turns 40 in December and the Lakers haven’t finished higher than seventh in the West since 2020 (a factor in James not being higher than All-NBA Third Team). James hasn’t played 60 games in back-to-back seasons since leaving Cleveland either. Since the 2021 offseason, James has missed extended time because of abdominal, left knee, left ankle, adductor and right foot injuries.

Los Angeles Lakers

Tier 1

Average games played last three seasons: 76.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA Second Team, 2024 All-Star

Adebayo is the highest-ranked player that has not yet reached All-NBA status. What Adebayo has done is establish himself as one of the league’s best defenders, even as a short center who has never blocked 100 shots in a season, and one of the most versatile offensive bigs. Adebayo missed seven weeks during the 2021-22 season because of surgery to repair a torn ligament in his shooting thumb, as well as two weeks last season due to a hip contusion, but he has otherwise been durable for the Miami Heat, and he still has some ceiling to explore.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Tier 1

Tier 2

Average games played last three seasons: 74.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-NBA Third Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA Third Team

Sabonis was not an All-Star last season, but he was named to the All-NBA Third Team for the second year in a row after leading the NBA in rebounds back-to-back seasons. Sabonis also played in all 82 games, making him the first perfect attendance All-NBA selection since Nikola Jokić in 2021 and the first to play in 82 games since Kemba Walker in 2019. The only other players in the league who played 82 games and averaged more than 30 minutes were Jalen Green, Austin Reaves, and Mikal Bridges, three players who have never been All-Stars. Sabonis also led the Kings in assists with 8.2 per game, second only to Jokić among centers.

Average games played last three seasons: 63.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA Second Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Like Tyrese Haliburton, Mitchell missed the final two games of the playoffs against the Boston Celtics. A calf strain kept Mitchell out in May, but he also missed 26 regular-season games last season, mostly because of hamstring and knee injuries. Mitchell expanded his game last season, reaching career-highs in rebounds, assists, and steals. The only other player besides Mitchell who has averaged at least 25 points and three 3s per game each of the last four seasons is Stephen Curry, and now Mitchell, who will be coached by former Golden State Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Tier 2

Average games played last three seasons: 63.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA First team, 2022 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA Third Team, 2024 All-Star

Booker’s willingness to take on a variety of roles has put him in a position to do something different for yet another Phoenix Suns head coach. Monty Williams oversaw Booker’s ascent to All-Star status as a shooting guard, and he made the playoffs playing next to Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges. Last year under Frank Vogel, Booker had to run point with Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant in place of Paul and Bridges. Now, Mike Budenholzer is the head coach and Tyus Jones is the point guard, so Booker will have to defend bigger wings with Jones and Beal on the floor. Booker’s durability has not matched his versatility. Booker missed three playoff games in 2022 because of a right hamstring strain, and he missed 29 games in 2022-23, mostly because of a groin injury. Last season, Booker got off to a slow start because of foot and calf injuries. Booker earned a gold medal this summer, and will now look to play 70 games for the first time since 2020.

Average games played last three seasons: 67.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-NBA Second Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Last year was snub season for Brown, who failed to make the All-NBA team or the Paris Olympics roster. But Brown reached the 70-game mark for the first time in five years and was named MVP of the Eastern Conference finals and NBA Finals. Brown isn’t the passer or shooter that Jayson Tatum is, and so Brown is 1B to Tatum’s 1A in Boston’s offense. But that’s no slight as Brown has shown that he is a dangerous second option on the best team in basketball.

Average games played last three seasons: 67.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-NBA Third Team, 2024 All-Star

Haliburton has gotten better every year, and he is coming off a season where he led the NBA in assists for the best offense in basketball outside of Boston. The 65-game rule for awards affected Haliburton’s production, as he missed 10 of his 13 games trying to manage a left hamstring injury while playing fewer than 30 minutes in seven other games before the All-Star break. Haliburton even came off the bench to play in a second game of a back-to-back. While Haliburton was rewarded with a spot on the All-NBA team, that left hamstring cost him the final two games of the Eastern Conference finals as well. Haliburton also missed 26 games in 2022-23 with elbow, knee, ankle, and calf ailments. He is one of the most impactful players in the league with his ability to orchestrate offense, but his durability bears watching next season.

Average games played last three seasons: 65.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-NBA Third Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Randle tends to alternate strong seasons with forgettable ones. The Timberwolves are hoping that trend continues after trading Karl-Anthony Towns to acquire Randle, who is in the final stages of recovery from shoulder surgery that ended his season in January and cost him the entire 2024 postseason. Randle was an All-NBA selection in 2023, and though he missed a playoff game that required offseason ankle surgery, he missed only five games that regular season. The floor with Randle can be the 2022 season when Randle missed only 10 games but shot only 41.1 percent from the field for a Knicks team that missed the playoffs following his breakout 2021 season. As long as Randle is healthy, he’s going to find a way to produce. The only players over the last three seasons to average at least 20 points, nine rebounds, and four assists are Randle, Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Nikola Jokić.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Tier 2

Average games played last three seasons: 76.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Second Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-Star

DeRozan is the highest-ranked player who was not an All-Star or All-NBA selection in 2024. But DeRozan only missed 17 games in his three seasons with the Chicago Bulls, and that’s despite arguably the heaviest on-ball role in the league for any wing, even in his mid-30s. No player was on the floor for more total minutes last season than DeRozan, making him the oldest player to lead the NBA in minutes ever. DeRozan has scored better than 20 points per game for 11 straight seasons and has added at least 4.0 assists per game for seven straight seasons. He hasn’t played in the playoffs since 2022 but has never missed a playoff game in his career. If DeRozan’s production carries over to Sacramento, then he could return to both the All-Star game as well as the playoffs.

Average games played last three seasons: 74.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2024 All-NBA Second Team, 2024 All-Star

Brunson dominated the ball in New York at James Harden or Trae Young levels, and the results were spectacular, as Brunson made his first All-Star appearance and was named to the All-NBA second team. Since 2020, Brunson has increased his scoring average by at least 3.7 points per game each season, and he averaged 32.4 points this postseason before suffering a fractured left (shooting) hand in a Game 7 loss to the Pacers. Most importantly, Brunson is the most durable of the All-Star point guards in the NBA.

Average games played last three seasons: 67.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Third Team, 2022 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Young is a polarizing player because of his heavy on-ball presence and relatively diminutive size and the challenges they present in fitting players around him. But Young missed only 32 games in his first five seasons before missing 28 games last season, mostly because of surgery to repair a torn finger ligament in his left hand. Young’s lone All-NBA season came before the Hawks acquired Dejounte Murray, and now that Murray has been traded to New Orleans, Young is back as the undisputed lead guard in Atlanta. Young has increased his assists per game every season.

Average games played last three seasons: 67.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Of all of the NBA-designated stars in the league, none played more games during the last three seasons than Edwards, who has continued to ascend and is one of the league’s top shooting guards headed into his age-23 season. Edwards has missed only 16 games during his four-year career, and he has shown that he is a playoff riser, going from 24.0 points per game during the last three regular seasons to 27.8 points per game in three postseasons.

Tier 3

Average games played last three seasons: 53.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-NBA Third Team, 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Lillard is one of the most ball-dominant stars in the league, and he showed that he can still produce at a high level even next to an All-NBA talent. Unfortunately, Lillard missed two games in the playoffs because of a right Achilles tendon strain. Lillard has had issues with his right calf going back to the 2022-23 season, when he missed 24 games. Lillard also had season-ending abdominal surgery in January 2022. It’s good that Lillard got through last season healthy, but his availability is a concern as he enters his age-34 season.

Average games played last three seasons: 60.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-NBA Second Team

Butler’s regular-season availability has been a concern every year that Butler has been in Miami, as he has missed at least 15 games each of the last five seasons. When the playoffs come around, Butler becomes more dangerous. But he has also missed a playoff game because of injury each of the last three years, and he missed the entire 2024 postseason because of a right MCL sprain. Butler made more 3s than he ever did with the Heat last season and he is still highly effective on both ends of the floor. Miami has been squarely in the middle of the Eastern Conference the last two seasons, and it remains to be seen if Butler can increase his participation while heading into his age-35 campaign.

Average games played last three seasons: 73.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA ThirdTeam, 2023 All-Star

Siakam has trended down in terms of individual accomplishments the last couple of seasons, as he was neither an All-Star nor All-NBA selection for the first time in three years after getting traded from Toronto in January. But Siakam has only missed 28 games in the past three seasons, played 80 games last season, and he was very good in the playoffs for a Pacers team that made it to the Eastern Conference finals. If Siakam can carry that production over into the start of this season, then Siakam will have a good shot at regaining All-Star status, especially as Indiana’s top scoring threat.

Average games played last three seasons: 57.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2024 All-NBA Second Team, 2024 All-Star

Last season was a great year for Davis in terms of staying on the floor, as he missed only six games and returned to All-NBA status for the first time in four years. Davis’ talent and production is not why he missed being an All-NBA selection three years in a row. It’s about Davis’ durability and the fact that the Lakers have spent most of the last four seasons squarely in the Play-In picture or worse. Knee and foot injuries cost Davis more than half the 2021-22 season, while another foot injury was a factor in Davis missing 26 games in 2022-23. Davis is one of the best defenders in the league and does everything offensively well except shoot 3s. He turns 32 in March, making him one of the older starting centers in the league, but he’ll attempt to play in 70 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2018.

Los Angeles Lakers

Tier 3

Average games played last three seasons: 55.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Third Team, 2022 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Towns should be at center more often in New York after he shared the floor with Rudy Gobert in his last two seasons with the Timberwolves. The last time Towns started the majority of his games at center, he was an All-NBA selection. But that was also the only time in the last five seasons that Towns missed fewer than 20 games. Last season, Towns missed more than a month after undergoing knee surgery. The year before, Towns missed most of the season due to a Grade 3 calf strain. If Towns can stay on the floor, he could see an increase in his numbers across the board.

Average games played last three seasons: 53.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star, 2024 All-Star

Some have suggested that the Clippers should have prioritized keeping George over Kawhi Leonard with both having the option to decline the final years of their contracts in 2024. George did play in more games than Leonard and represented the Clippers as an All-Star in back-to-back seasons. But George hasn’t been an All-NBA selection since 2021. And while he made it through last season without a major absence, George missed most of the 2021-22 season because of a torn ligament in his elbow and 26 games in the 2022-23 season. George missed the 2023 postseason because of a sprained knee as well. The 76ers are already experiencing what a George injury scare is like, as he suffered a bone bruise in his left knee during the last week of the preseason. Keeping George in the lineup at this stage of his career requires a team to have multiple star players who can reduce George’s workload on both sides of the floor.

Philadelphia 76ers

Tier 3

Average games played last three seasons: 76.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2024 All-Star

Banchero went from being the top pick of the 2022 draft to Rookie of the Year to an All-Star for a playoff team in two years. He was also the only All-Star selection to play in 80 games last season. It’s rare a big has so much of a team’s offense run through him, but that’s the case for Banchero in Orlando; he’s essentially the team’s primary playmaker. Now, the Magic’s offense is not good, and Banchero has a ways to go in terms of being efficient and more effective with the ball in his hands, but Banchero won’t be 22 years old until November, and his combination of size and skill is intriguing given what he’s already accomplished.

Average games played last three seasons: 42.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Second Team, 2022 All-Star, 2023 All-Star

Every player to this point has been selected for one of the previous three All-Star games. Morant stops that trend. His talent is obvious as a heavy on-ball presence who lives in the paint and the free-throw line despite his lithe frame. Morant has missed 34 games due to off-court incidents, but the more pressing issue for him going forward is his lack of durability. Shoulder surgery ended Morant’s season after only nine games last season. Morant missed a playoff game in 2023 because of a right-hand injury. Even in his 2022 campaign that ended with a Most Improved Player award and a spot on the All-NBA Second Team, Morant missed 25 games in the regular season and was unable to finish the 2022 West semifinals against the Warriors because of a right knee bone bruise. Morant’s size, style of play, injury history, and workload make him one of the bigger availability concerns in the league.

Memphis Grizzlies

Tier 3

Average games played last three seasons: 70.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2024 All-Star

Barnes became an All-Star last year on the strength of his ability to stuff the stat sheet beyond scoring. He averaged 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks. The only other players to average those verified numbers in a season were Draymond Green in 2016, Kevin Garnett in 2003 and Larry Bird in 1985. Barnes had missed only 13 games in his career until he broke his hand in March and missed the final 22 games of last season. The Raptors don’t have nearly as much talent now as they did a year ago, which gives Barnes a chance to possibly break 20 points per game for the first time in his short career.

Average games played last three seasons: 68.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-NBA Third Team, 2023 All-Star

Fox became a first-time All-Star and All-NBA performer in 2023 once he finally combined efficiency, volume and health on a winning team. The Kings weren’t nearly as lethal offensively last season, but Fox was able to show that he could stay on the floor in back-to-back seasons for the first time since his first two seasons. Fox’s volume will likely take a hit with DeMar DeRozan joining the team, but that could also allow Fox’s efficiency to bounce back.

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 68.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2024 All-Star

Maxey fully emerged as a star last season, playing his most games without Ben Simmons, James Harden or Joel Embiid on the active roster and showing that he could score at a high level. Other than a fracture in his left foot in November 2022, Maxey has been durable over the last three seasons, and he became the league’s Most Improved Player and a first-time All-Star in 2024. Maxey also averaged nearly 30 points per game in the Eastern quarterfinals. His volume will likely decrease with Embiid returning and Paul George joining the 76ers, but Maxey has already shown that he can be efficient without stars; he should be one of the higher floor stars in the league.

Philadelphia 76ers

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 40.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

No All-NBA performer over the last three seasons has been dealt a tougher hand than Leonard, who suffered a torn ACL in the second round of the 2021 playoffs and did not see the floor the entire next season. On one hand, Leonard returned to the NBA in 2022, did improve to 52 games that season in 2022-23 and 68 games in 2023-24. Leonard re-established his star status last season, becoming the only player in the league to score 1,500 points, make at least 50 percent from the field, and add 100 steals and 100 3s. But on the other hand, Leonard has failed to make it through any postseason healthy since 2020 because of those right knee woes. Inflammation in Leonard’s right knee was the problem last spring, and the Clippers are having Leonard focus on strengthening his knee before he takes the floor for the upcoming season. It highlights the lengths the Clippers have to go to to not only get Leonard on the floor, but also to keep him on the floor as well.

Average games played last three seasons: 69.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star

Jackson Jr. played 500 more minutes than any other Grizzlies player last season, and his ability to stay on the floor has improved significantly over the past three seasons. While he reached career-highs in offensive volume, Jackson’s efficiency suffered while trying to prop up the league’s worst offense. Jackson was the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year, but his effectiveness dropped off without a bodyguard-type center consistently in the lineup. Getting Jackson back to All-Star level and All-Defense form could be as simple as playing with Ja Morant and lottery pick Zach Edey. But Jackson Jr. is already dealing with a bad hamstring this month as well.

Memphis Grizzlies

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 67.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star

Holiday joining the Celtics resulted in a drop from his All-Star volume in Milwaukee, but he also won his second NBA championship, was an All-Defensive team selection and took home an Olympic gold medal in the Paris 2024 Olympics.s as well, while making yet another All-Defensive team. Most importantly, other than a shoulder injury in March, Holiday was mostly healthy last season. He is 34, but Holiday has one of the lightest workloads of a star point guard. It’s how he went from shooting 39.6 percent from the field in three postseasons with the Bucks to 50.3 percent with the Celtics last spring.

Average games played last three seasons: 60.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Markkanen broke out as an All-Star and the league’s Most Improved Player in 2023, but last season highlighted the stat that Markkanen has missed at least 14 games in every season of his career. Hamstring, quad, and shoulder injuries held Markkanen to only 55 games last season, and he is still looking for his first career postseason as well. After signing a new contract extension in August to stay in Utah, it would be a surprise if Markkanen and the Jazz play in the postseason in 2025.

Average games played last three seasons: 60.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Third Team, 2022 All-Star

Paul is the lowest-ranked player who has appeared on an All-NBA team just one of the last three years. Last season in Golden State was the first time that Paul came off the bench in 19 NBA seasons and the first time he missed the playoffs in 14 years. In 2023, Paul missed the final four postseason games in Phoenix in 2023 because of a groin injury, and his final All-Star season was interrupted by a fractured thumb. The future Hall of Famer is 39 years old and now on his seventh NBA team, but he will get to start again in San Antonio after averaging fewer than 13 points and 31 minutes for the first time in his career last season.

San Antonio Spurs

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 49.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star

Irving just came off a postseason where he played a career-high 879 minutes. That’s 54 more minutes than Irving’s other seasons since he left Cleveland in 2017 combined. Talent and on-court fit are rarely the concern for Irving, a player equally dangerous on the ball or off the ball playing next to a fulcrum of offense. Irving has missed at least 15 games each of the last seven seasons, and while last year was by far his quietest in terms of non-injury incidents in several seasons, Irving still missed 24 games mostly to heel and thumb injuries. Irving will be 33 years old in March, and durability has never been a strong suit of his.

Average games played last three seasons: 73.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

In two seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, Dejounte Murray missed a total of 12 games. That does not include a postseason suspension in 2023 for making inappropriate contact with and verbally abusing a game official. Murray was unable to form a working partnership with Trae Young, and. as a result, Murray’s lone career All-Star selection is still from his last season with the San Antonio Spurs. Now, Murray will try to find his fit and fit better with the other on-ball options in New Orleans, though it helps that he was brought to the Pelicans specifically to help address the team’s woeful clutch-time offense.

New Orleans Pelicans

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 70.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Gobert’s defensive accolades speak for themselves, for the most part; there are always some bad-faith arguments when it comes to Gobert’s accomplishments. When Gobert missed a Timberwolves playoff win in Denver because of the birth of his child, some player analysts tried to use that as a point against Gobert’s impact. While Gobert has been a top defender in Minnesota, he has not made an All-Star Game since he was traded from Utah. Given his limitations offensively as a passer and shooter, there’s a chance that Gobert’s awards are limited to All-Defense teams.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 69.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

When it comes to small guards, VanVleet is one of the most available players in the league. Over the past three seasons, only nine players have played more minutes, only eight players have made more 3s, only six players have more assists, and only three players have more steals. On the flip side, VanVleet will be 31 years old in February, is 6 feet tall, has never shot 43 percent or better from the field, and his scoring has dropped from his All-Star career-high of 20.3 points each of the last two seasons. It will be a surprise if VanVleet gets back to an All-Star Game, but his consistency should be applauded.

Tier 5

Average games played last three seasons: 67.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Like Garland, his Cavs teammate, Allen made his lone All-Star appearance in 2022 and has been working alongside a similar player for multiple seasons. In Allen’s case, he has been in the lineup with Evan Mobley, who has yet to make an All-Star appearance. Allen has been about as productive as he was in his All-Star year, but he has missed the finish of Cleveland’s season two of the last three years. Allen’s 2022 season was cut short by a fractured finger and he also missed Cleveland’s final eight playoff games last season due to a rib injury.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Tier 5

Average games played last three seasons: 33.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star

Williamson, with his combination of size and driving ability, is one of the most dynamic players in the league. Unfortunately, no star is likely to miss more time than Williamson, who has failed to finish any of the last three seasons healthy and has not played in a single postseason game in five seasons with the Pelicans. Williamson missed the entire 2021-22 season due to foot surgery, while hamstring injuries to both legs ended his last two seasons prematurely.

New Orleans Pelicans

Tier 5

Average games played last three seasons: 65.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Harden has missed the last two All-Star games despite playing at a high level. He led the NBA in assists per game in 2023 but missed 24 games that same season, mostly because of a right foot injury. Last year, Harden missed the start of the season after he requested the Philadelphia 76ers trade him to the LA Clippers, a move that wasn’t acquiesced to until after the preseason ended. Harden, 35, has one of the heaviest workloads in the league when he plays, but the mileage makes his efficiency and durability a concern at this point of his career.

Average games played last three seasons: 64.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Garland is one of the rare star point guards who has had to cede the team lead in touches to another guard. While Garland has complemented Donovan Mitchell well enough, the bigger concern with Garland has been his ability to stay on the floor. Garland missed a career-worst 25 games last season, mostly because of a serious jaw injury.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Tier 5

Average games played last three seasons: 60.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Wiggins made his lone All-Star appearance in 2022. Unfortunately, he has not approached the same level of play or availability since, most notably because of personal reasons; Wiggins’ father Mitchell passed away recently. Golden State could use a bounce-back season from Wiggins after he hit career lows in scoring, assists, steals and minutes last season.

Golden State Warriors

Tier 5

Average games played last three seasons: 58.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Green has made a career out of being a 6-foot-6 versatile big man. But even in 2022, Golden State’s last championship season, Green played just 46 games because of back issues. The following year, Green was suspended indefinitely for unsportsmanlike conduct after striking Phoenix Suns center Jusuf Nurkić in the face. Green’s repeated behavior led to more suspensions last season. While Green is an impactful player, that impact is too often felt in extended absences.

Golden State Warriors

Tier 5

Average games played last three seasons: 56.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

LaVine saw the floor just 25 games last season due to season-ending foot surgery. The Bulls were a playoff team when LaVine made his last All-Star appearance, but they were eliminated in the Play-In the last two years, including 2022-23 when LaVine played his most games (77) in eight years. This upcoming season will be an opportunity for LaVine to show that he is healthy and capable of returning to All-Star status.

Average games played last three seasons: 51.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Middleton has had a tough stretch since being named an All-Star in 2022. He was held to just two playoff games that spring because of a sprained knee. Wrist surgery and knee issues limited Middleton to 33 games the following season. In 2024, he had ankle injuries that cost him a few weeks and led to offseason surgeries. Middleton is still an effective player capable of doing more on the ball than most wings, but his availability has been an issue for years.

Average games played last three seasons: 44.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

On one hand, Ball has the talent of a star as a 6-foot-7 point guard who is capable of being one of the league’s leading pick-and-roll creators. But Ball has only played in 58 games the last two seasons, and the Hornets were only 20-38 in those games. The Hornets were a Play-In Tournament team in Ball’s All-Star season. Now is a good time for Ball to show that he can stay on the court and contribute to winning basketball as his team’s only All-Star caliber player.

Charlotte Hornets

Tier 5

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Mark Blinch, Garrett Ellwood / NBAE, Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)