To start the new month, the NBA has six games on the schedule this Saturday, and five of those are included on the main featured slate on DraftKings, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Nets, Pistons, and Grizzlies are finishing back-to-back sets of games, while the Spurs are the only team that plays Saturday and Sunday this week.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
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At point guard, Kyrie Irving has the highest median and ceiling projections at the position and will look to post his third straight game over 50 DraftKings points. His Mavs host the Bucks in one of the two late matchups on the slate.
Kyrie exceeded salary-based expectations in his games on Tuesday and Thursday of this past week. On Tuesday, he dropped 35 points and 60.25 DraftKings points against the Lakers in L.A., and he followed that up with 25 points and 51.75 DraftKings points at home in a win over the Hornets on Thursday.
Without Luka or Anthony Davis, Kyrie has to step into a more active role in the offense. In the last six games, his usage has climbed to 31.7%, and he has posted 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. Those numbers are big shifts from his season averages of 27.3% usage and a production rate of 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. With more work and production, he makes sense as a point guard to build around as he goes head-to-head with Damian Lillard.
One key injury report to watch for on Saturday is the Nets since they’ll be finishing their back-to-back with a trip to Detroit to face the Pistons. Cam Thomas just returned from an extended layoff with a hamstring injury and was uncertain if he would play on the second night of the back-to-back. If he’s ruled out, it would open up huge value from Keon Johnson and Killian Hayes, who both already rank in the top eight in Projected Plus/Minus at point guard.
Johnson exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games with Thomas and D’Angelo Russell (ankle) dealing with injuries. He had at least 25 DraftKings points in each of those five games with a high point of 35.25 DraftKings points in 29 minutes against the Thunder on Wednesday.
Hayes had 16 points and 31 DraftKings points on Friday night while making his fourth straight start. He has over 28 DraftKings points in three straight games and makes sense as an excellent play at only $4,300 if Russell remains out Saturday.
Coming off a massive 56-point game on Thursday that earned him 73.5 DraftKings points, Stephen Curry and the Warriors will go for their sixth straight win as they visit the Sixers. Jimmy Butler (back) is questionable, and Steph would have to carry more of the workload once again if Butler is out. Even before his monster night in Orlando, Curry was on a nice run with 25+ points in seven of his previous nine games. In his last 10, he is averaging 48.5 DraftKings points per game and 1.47 DraftKings points per minute.
Chris Paul has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on Saturday. CP3 had a double-double with 12 points, 10 assists, and 35 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the Pelicans. That was his 12th double-double in his 56 games this season, but he struggled the following night, finishing with just four points and 14.75 DraftKings points. He gets a nice pace-up spot against the Grizzlies, who have the fastest pace in the NBA and give the Spurs the top pace differential on the board.
If you are shopping for a bargain play at point guard, Dennis Schroder is available for just under $4,000 after scoring eight points to go with seven assists and six rebounds for 27.5 DraftKings points in 24 minutes against the Nuggets on Friday. He missed Wednesday’s game with an ankle issue, but he has averaged 22.25 DraftKings points over his last five games, with over 27 in two of his last three. He’ll take on his former team (the Nets) on Saturday and could be in for a bigger role depending on whom Detroit has available on the second night of their back-to-back.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
One of the exciting new features this season on FantasyLabs is our partnership with ShotQuality. In Saturday’s ShotQuality projections, Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Fox is looking for a bounce-back performance after scoring just seven points against the Rockets on Wednesday and finishing with only 16.75 DraftKings points. In his last three games, he shot just 24.5% from the field and averaged 11.7 points, 5.7 assists, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 steals. He will need to be much better for the Spurs going forward since they are relying on him without Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) for the rest of the season.
Fox has the potential to be great and has 40+ DraftKings points in three of his last five games despite his shooting slump. The Grizzlies should be a good pace-up spot for him to get going again, and he brings a very high ceiling in this matchup on Saturday.
The 76ers ruled Joel Embiid (knee) out for the season on Friday, and Eric Gordon (wrist) underwent surgery and will be sidelined for three months. One player getting more time lately with a chance to step up his production is Kelly Oubre Jr., who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in the FantasyLabs projections this Saturday.
Oubre was sensational on Wednesday against the Knicks, pouring in 27 points to go with his typical strong non-scoring numbers on his way to 44.25 DraftKings points. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last six games dating back to before the All-Star break. He produced 0.83 DraftKings points per minute during that stretch but has played a team-leading 37.5 minutes per game to average 31.25 DraftKings points per game.
In this matchup against Golden State, Oubre brings both a high floor and a high ceiling with so much work available in the Sixers’ offense alongside Tyrese Maxey.
Despite having a questionable tag before Friday’s game against the Knicks, Desmond Bane went off for 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 45.5 DraftKings points. Earlier in the week, he almost had a double-double with assists, finishing with 25 points, nine assists and 47.25 DraftKings points against the Suns.
Brandin Podziemski has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in the FantasyLabs projections even though his salary has climbed to $6,000. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 of his last 16 games since returning from injury, averaging 30.6 DraftKings points per game and 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. He could also get more work if Butler is out.
Another Warriors’ option with upside if Butler sits, Buddy Hield will face his former team and is an interesting shooting guard option under $4,000. He had 16 points and 25 DraftKings points on Tuesday against Charlotte, but he has finished below salary-based expectations in five straight aside from that one spike game.
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In both sets of projections, Zach LaVine ranks in the top three small forwards in median, ceiling, and floor projections. He has the top floor projection at the position in both sets and is safer since the other top three options are Jimmy Butler, who has his own injury issues, and Amen Thompson, who could lose some work with Fred VanVleet (ankle) set to return for the Rockets.
LaVine has settled in nicely with the Kings and has at least 37 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, highlighted by two games over 50 DraftKings points. He had a season-high 42 points and 53.25 DraftKings points against the Hornets on Monday and followed that up with 22 points and 37 DraftKings points on Wednesday in his most recent game.
Since arriving in Sacramento, LaVine has scored 20+ points in six of nine games and has hit multiple three-pointers in five straight games. He’s a good play under $8,000 with a high ceiling and floor.
In the ShotQuality projections, Keldon Johnson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards. He gets a good matchup against the up-tempo Grizzlies, who have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards than any other team in the NBA.
Johnson has stepped into a larger role since the injury to Wembanyama, exceeding salary-based expectations in four of his last five games. He has double-digit points in each of those five games, with 15+ points in four of those contests.
On Wednesday, he tied for the team lead with 22 points against the Rockets and finished with 32.75 DraftKings points. He also had a big game last Friday against the Pistons, going for 28 points and 40 DraftKings points. Without Wemby, Johnson will have to continue to step up and help carry the load, making him a good value under $5,000.
Amen Thompson has been excellent and has the highest median projection at small forward in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the second-highest ceiling projections in both sets of projections, but his floor is a little lower due to the return of FVV. Thompson earned 47.25 DraftKings points on Wednesday against the Spurs, finishing just one rebound short of a double-double and adding five assists. Coach Ime Udoka said that Thompson will stay in the starting five even with VanVleet’s return, and the young rising star should stay very involved.
His brother, Ausar Thompson, has also been very good lately for the Pistons. Like his brother, Ausar can stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories, like on Friday when he had 13 points, four rebounds, five assists, five steals, and 35 DraftKings points against the Pistons. He exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 12 games with at least 24 DraftKings points in those 12 games and at least 30 DraftKings points in seven of his last 10. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in both projections.
Justin Edwards returned from his ankle injury on Wednesday and had six points and 12.75 DraftKings points in 28 minutes. Before the injury, he had 30.25 DraftKings points against the Nets and had posted over 21 DraftKings points in five of eight contests. He will likely ramp back up into a bigger role as he gets fully healthy and should establish himself in Philly’s rotation. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at both forward spots in the FantasyLabs projections.
On the entire slate, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in both sets of projections. If you have the salary to pay up for one superstar, he stands out as the best pay-up option, especially in this matchup against the Mavs.
Giannis had a monster game on Thursday, with 28 points, 19 rebounds, seven assists, and 65.25 DraftKings points to lead the Bucks past the Nuggets. Milwaukee is 4-1 in the five games since the All-Star break, and Giannis has posted three straight double-doubles with over 53 DraftKings points.
The Mavericks will have a hard time slowing down Antetokounmpo since they are so shorthanded in the frontcourt. Anthony Davis (adductor), Daniel Gafford (knee) and Dereck Lively (ankle) are all out, and P.J. Washington (ankle) is questionable. Naji Marshall and Kessler Edwards have been playing most of the minutes in the frontcourt lately with newly added Moses Brown also stepping in. While they have some fantasy appeal of their own (see below), they create a major mismatch for Giannis.
Grizzlies forward Santi Aldama has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on Saturday. The 24-year-old from Spain has grown into a very solid producer off the Grizzlies’ bench and has had a very stable role over the past month.
Aldama was a bit of a disappointment on Friday, finishing with just 9 points and 18.25 DraftKings points in the Grizzlies’ loss to the Knicks, but before that, he posted 28+ DraftKings points in five straight games, highlighted by 40 DraftKings points on Tuesday in a big win over the Suns.
In his last 12 games, Aldama has produced 13.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 28.7 DraftKings points per game. Against the Spurs, he should be ready for a big workload and bring a high ceiling, especially if Memphis rests any stars on the second night of their back-to-back.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward in the ShotQuality projections and has a high ceiling against the Spurs’ injury-depleted frontcourt. He has fallen short of salary-based expectations, with under 40 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games, but this should be a good bounce-back spot for him
If P.J. Washington can return from his ankle injury, he’ll have a big workload for the Mavericks. He was held scoreless in his last game on Tuesday, finishing with 10 rebounds, five assists, and 28.5 DraftKings points. He has 40+ DraftKings points in four of his last seven games while battling injuries, so he has been productive when available.
As a bargain play, Brandon Clarke has double-digit points and over 22 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards under $4,000 in both sets of projections in his matchup against the Spurs.
Rockets center Alperen Sengun has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center in the FantasyLabs projections. Sengun only played 19 minutes against the Spurs on Wednesday in the second game of the team’s back-to-back, but in his three previous games with a typical workload, he posted over 40 DraftKings points with three straight double-doubles.
Sengun averaged 43.35 DraftKings points per game this season and is slightly over that average in games that VanVleet is available. With FVV on the floor, Sengun has produced 1.41 DraftKings points per minute.
Sengun’s matchup against Domantas Sabonis is expected to bring big nights for both big men according to both sets of projections. Since Sengun is almost $1,000 cheaper than Sabonis, he’s a much easier play to build around. In two games against the Kings earlier this season, Sengun posted 50 and 44.5 DraftKings points.
The FantasyLabs projections give Draymond Green the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate, as the Warriors take on the Sixers without Embiid. Green has been on a nice roll lately, with double-digit points in five of his last six games, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those five contests.
Green had 12 points, 10 boards, and 32.5 DraftKings points on Thursday in Steph’s big game, and he was even more productive on Tuesday, when he had 41.5 DraftKings points with a balanced statline against the Hornets.
He has 30+ DraftKings points in five of his last six games, and especially if Butler is out or limited, he should be set to return excellent value Saturday in Philly.
Sabonis has a high ceiling in his matchup with Sengun as well. He had 50.5 and 40.75 DraftKings points in their head-to-head matchups. He has been quiet in his last two games, with not even a double-double, but he had 22 points, 28 rebounds, and 64 DraftKings points against the Pelicans just before the All-Star break. The new-look Kings don’t rely on him quite as much as they did before the trade deadline, but he still brings tons of upside.
Moses Brown started the season with the Pacers but joined the Mavs on a 10-day contract. He got his first start of the season last Thursday against the Hornets and finished with 20 points, 11 rebounds, three steals, two blocks, and 45.25 DraftKings points. If Washington is out on Saturday, Brown will be a great value play and almost a must-start since the Mavs will desperately need his size against the Bucks.
Another good value at center is Zach Edey, who has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center in both sets of projections. The rookie posted a double-double and 30.75 DraftKings points on Friday, which was his first double-double since early in February. His playing time is volatile, but he has shown upside and gets a good matchup against the Spurs. If Washington plays and Brown isn’t an option, Edey would be the strongest value play in the $4,000s at center.
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