After a wild weekend with some unexpected results, the NBA is back in action to get the work week off to a busy start with a seven-game fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings. Four of the seven games tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET when contests lock and then a few strong matchups from the Western Conference close things out. Of the 14 teams taking the floor, the Pistons, Pacers, Clippers, Heat, Timberwolves, Thunder, Hawks, and Wizards are all playing for the second day in a row.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
On an absolutely stacked point guard slate, Tyler Herro stands out as one of the top options, even though his salary is only $8,500. He has the fourth-highest median and ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard.
Part of the reason he is ranked so highly is that he’s in a very favorable matchup against the Hawks, who have been playing very fast lately. They rank first in the NBA in pace over the last 10 games and passed the Grizzlies to take the overall lead for the season in pace as well. On Sunday, they lost 148-143 to the Pistons and Cade Cunningham went off for 38 points and 76.25 fantasy points.
Herro will look to attack that same matchup on Monday, and Miami has the highest pace differential on the slate. Since the trade of Jimmy Butler, Herro has been the focus of the Heat’s offense. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games, averaging 46.8 DraftKings points per game and 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He had 40 points and 67.25 DraftKings points on Sunday in the Heat’s loss to the Bucks. Herro brings an elite ceiling on Monday but comes at a more affordable salary than Cunningham, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or even Tyrese Maxey.
One of the exciting new features this season on FantasyLabs is our partnership with ShotQuality. In the ShotQuality projections, Isaiah Collier has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard. He should be in position for a large workload on Monday against the Trail Blazers since the Jazz ruled out both Collin Sexton (ankle) and Jordan Clarkson (foot). Walker Kessler (illness) and Lauri Markkanen (back) are also questionable.
Collier has produced 30+ DraftKings points in five straight games and eight of his last nine contests. The rookie has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and 35.0 DraftKings points per game over that span. Clarkson missed three of those games, and Collier increased his production to an average of 38.3 DraftKings points in those contests while getting an increase of 2.5 percentage points in usage.
In a favorable home matchup against the Blazers, Collier is a strong midrange value play at point guard and should be able to continue his recent roll.
While Joel Embiid is officially questionable, it looks unlikely that he’ll play on Monday night against the Bulls. That would leave Tyrese Maxey in a smash spot in a very favorable matchup. Maxey is questionable himself with a right finger sprain, but he had 31 points and 44.5 DraftKings points on Saturday and has over 44 DraftKings points in 13 of his last 15 games dating back to before the All-Star break. If he plays and Embiid is out, he will be set up for another huge game.
Keyonte George could move into the starting lineup next to Collier for the Jazz with Sexton and Clarkson out. George had 30 points and 51 DraftKings points to lead the Jazz to a big win on Saturday against Houston. He has over 30 DraftKings points in four straight and eight of his last nine, including three games over 44 DraftKings points.
If you want to go extremely cheap at point guard, Killian Hayes is still just over $4,000 even though he should get a big workload while filling in for D’Angelo Russell. In just his second game of the season, Hayes started on Saturday and finished with 18 DraftKings points in 27 minutes. He only took three shots but handed out six assists to go with four rebounds and a blocked shot. He usually isn’t a high-volume shooter or scorer, but he still has lots of potential since he’s expected to get so much work in a very favorable matchup against the Wizards.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
The Hawks have gotten good play all year from Dyson Daniels, but the 21-year-old who came over in the Dejounte Murray trade has really stepped up since Jalen Johnson (shoulder) was lost for the season to a shoulder injury. Daniels has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at shooting guard in the ShotQuality projections and the third-highest median projection at the position in the FantasyLabs projections as well. His salary is under $7,000, but he brings elite upside based on his recent numbers.
Daniels has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his nine games in February. He has produced 41.0 DraftKings points per game and 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over that span with double-digit points in each contest and an average of 17.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 2.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game.
In Sunday’s loss to the Pistons, Daniels poured in 24 points and had 49.25 DraftKings points after coming back from the break with a double-double in the Hawks’ loss to the Magic on Thursday. In the Hawks’ matchup with the Heat, he is a great way to get premium upside at a more affordable salary.
The Bulls’ backcourt has been hit with multiple injuries following the trade of Zach LaVine to Sacramento, which has created the opportunity for Kevin Huerter to step into a larger role. Huerter came back from the Kings in that deal and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the ShotQuality projections.
Huerter had 14 points in 30 minutes on Saturday and finished with 25.5 DraftKings points. He has gone 7-for-16 from long range over his last two games and brings a high ceiling if he can stay hot on Monday against the Sixers.
He should have the opportunity to stay involved on Monday since the Bulls will be looking for offense on the wings with Ayo Dosunmu (shoulder) and Patrick Williams (knee) ruled out. Coby White (ankle) is also probable.
The Timberwolves are starting to get a little healthier and are hopeful to get Donte DiVincenzo (toe) and Julius Randle (groin) back at some point on their current trip. While he has had to carry more of the workload, Anthony Edwards has been putting up excellent numbers and will have to be busy again on Monday against the Thunder. Edwards has over 47 DraftKings points in seven straight games, averaging 55.4 DraftKings points per game. On Sunday against OKC, he had 29 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and 57.0 DraftKings points, and he’ll look for another big game in Monday’s rematch.
The Sixers have relied heavily on Quentin Grimes since he came over in a trade at the deadline. Grimes has played six games for the Sixers, averaging 35.2 DraftKings points per game. He moved into the starting lineup for the last three contests and posted 54.25, 24.75 and 36.25 DraftKings points. If Maxey and Embiid are both out, he’ll be a must-start against the Bulls.
Aaron Nesmith is an interesting shooting guard option under $4,000. He had 13 points and 26.75 DraftKings points followed by 19 points and 29 DraftKings points in his two games since the All-Star break. After missing extended time with an ankle injury, he seems to be finding his stride but is still available at a discount coming in Monday’s home game against the Nuggets.
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In both sets of projections, Cameron Johnson has a top-five median and ceiling projection for Monday’s matchup against the Wizards. Without D’Angelo Russell (ankle) and Cam Thomas (hamstring), Johnson will have to carry a heavy workload in this favorable matchup and should be poised for success.
On Saturday in a similar scenario, Johnson had 23 points and 39 DraftKings points in 35 minutes to lead the Nets to a road win in Philadelphia. He didn’t have a great game from the outside, going just 1-for-9 on three-point attempts, but he still chipped in with four rebounds, four assists, and three steals to finish with a solid fantasy total.
Johnson has ramped back up and looks to be at full strength after missing six games with a right ankle sprain early this month, and he should be the focal point of the offense in this matchup against the Wizards, who give up plenty of fantasy points to forwards.
The ShotQuality projections give Deni Avdija the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards, with his teammate Toumani Camara just behind him. Both are solid value plays against the Jazz. Avdija is a lower risk since he has typically been a little more involved, but both have been in the starting lineup and productive over the last two games for Portland.
Avdija had 28 points and 44.5 DraftKings points against the Lakers on Thursday in the team’s first game back since the break. He stayed very efficient against the Hornets, making 6-of-10 shots from the field but only played 23 minutes since the Hornets turned the game into a blowout. He still had 27.5 DraftKings points and remains a good per-minute producer in almost any game script. He’s a solid play at just over $6,000 with a high ceiling.
Camara is a little riskier but has looked very good in his last two games. He had 19 points, five steals, seven rebounds, and 42.75 DraftKings points against the Lakers coming out of the break, and he followed that up with 20 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks, and 50 DraftKings points against the Hornets.
Both have high ceilings and are good value plays against the Jazz. Camara is my personally preferred option since he’s a little cheaper, and I’m ok with taking on the extra risk to get his ceiling.
Paul George has the highest median and ceiling projections at small forward in both sets of projections. He may have to carry more of the workload than usual depending on the availability of Maxey and Embiid. He’s in a favorable matchup against the Bulls and coming off a strong showing of 34.75 DraftKings points against the Nets.
For the Heat, Andrew Wiggins is an interesting play against the up-tempo Hawks. He has scored 25 and 20 points in his two games back since the All-Star break, finishing with 40 and 36 DraftKings points. He seems to be settling into his new role with Miami and is also playing big minutes for his new squad.
Depending on who the Jazz have available, Brice Sensabaugh could be a great value play. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the ShotQuality projections and the fourth-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. If Markkanen is ruled out, he’ll have even more work and potential against the Blazers. Sensabaugh went off in a few games earlier this season and had 20.75 DraftKings points on Saturday in a spot start in place of John Collins (back), who remains sidelined Monday.
In Miami’s matchup against the Hawks, Bam Adebayo has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward in the ShotQuality projections and the highest median and ceiling projections in the FantasyLabs projections.
Adebayo has at least 37 DraftKings points in four straight games after finishing with 24 points and seven rebounds in 35 minutes against the Bucks on Sunday. He had a double-double and 37 DraftKings points against the Raptors in his first game after the All-Star break, and he went into the break on a high note with 27 points, 15 rebounds, and 57.25 DraftKings points against the Thunder.
In his eight games in February, Bam has produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and 44.5 DraftKings points per game. He has spiked for two games of over 55 DraftKings points during that span and has that kind of upside based on his up-tempo matchup against the Hawks, who have struggled defensively in the frontcourt since losing Jalen Johnson.
If Embiid is out Monday, Guerschon Yabusele will step into a larger role. He already has a top-eight Projected Plus/Minus at power forward in both sets of projections even with Embiid in the projections.
The 29-year-old Frenchman has been one of the few bright spots for the Sixers this season, averaging 10.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 23.4 DraftKings points per game in his 53 games this season.
In his 34 games without Embiid this season, Yabusele has averaged 25.5 DraftKings points per game. He had 26 DraftKings points against the Nets in his most recent game and has put up over 25 DraftKings points in six of his last nine games, which makes him a great option under $5,000, especially if more minutes come his way without Embiid.
With both Rudy Gobert (back) and Julius Randle (groin) out on Sunday, Naz Reid stepped up with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 48.75 DraftKings points in 40 minutes against the Thunder. If both remain out for the rematch on Monday night, Reid will again need to take on more work. He has been able to produce great totals while filling in with over 44 DraftKings points in four straight games dating back to before the All-Star break. That run of success also includes a monster game before the break against the Thunder when Reid had 60 DraftKings points on 27 points and 14 rebounds.
At power forward, Jerami Grant has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the ShotQuality projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. He does not have an injury designation coming into the Blazers’ matchup with the Jazz and is coming off a solid 32.75 DraftKings points on Saturday. With Avdija and Camara stepping up, Grant could be squeezed for playing time, but he still brings a good upside of his own.
For the Nets, Trendon Watford has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games, with at least 21 DraftKings points in each contest and at least 25 DraftKings points in three of those matchups. He’s in a smash spot against the Wizards and is a nice play under $5,000. If you need to go cheaper, Sensabaugh is a solid option at power forward as well.
As usual when the Nuggets are in action, Nikola Jokic is at the top of all the projections. The Joker has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate by a wide margin in both sets of projections, and he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on this slate since he’s in such a good matchup against the Pacers.
The Joker is actually coming off a rare down game after managing “just” 12 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists and 46.75 DraftKings points against the Lakers on Saturday. It’s crazy that he can post a triple-double and come up short of his expectations, but that’s what happens when you post huge totals like the 71.25 DraftKings points he had against the Hornets on 29 points, 17 rebounds, and nine assists. He had over 66 DraftKings points in seven of his previous eight games and each of his last three before a slight step backward in Saturday’s loss to Luka’s Lakers.
Jokic will look to bounce back against the Pacers in Indiana. His salary was up to around $13,000, so he seems “cheap” at only $12,000 given the sky-high ceiling he brings to every matchup.
In the ShotQuality projections, Nic Claxton has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center, while in the FantasyLabs projections, he’s second behind Yabusele. Claxton tipped home the game-winner and finished with 16 points and nine rebounds against the Sixers, totaling 40.25 DraftKings points.
Claxton has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games with at least 30 DraftKings points in each game. With more usage available due to Russell’s absence, he should be in a great spot to be a top value once again, especially against the Wizards, who have been one of the best matchups all season for centers.
Behind Jokic, Bam, and Reid, Nikola Vucevic also has a high ceiling as the Bulls face the Sixers. Vucevic probably won’t have to face Embiid, and he usually performs well returning to where his NBA career began back in 2011. Vucevic posted over 32 DraftKings points in three straight games and averaged 43.8 DraftKings points in his two matchups earlier this season with the Sixers.
Walker Kessler has been a beast on the boards with 17+ rebounds in four of his last six games and over 40 DraftKings points in four of those six games as well. He is questionable due to an illness, but if he plays against the short-handed Blazers frontcourt, he’ll be in a good spot to keep producing.
If you opt to go cheap at center, Zach Collins is worth a look since he’ll be filling in for Jalen Smith (concussion) as Vucevic’s primary backup. He had eight points and 10 boards on his way to 21.5 DraftKings points in 18 minutes on Saturday against the Suns. If he gets similar playing time on Monday, he’ll be a great punt play at just $3,300.
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