Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable weekend and a wonderful season as we are past the All-Star break. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, keep lineup announcements in mind and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a seven or eight-game slate tonight depending on your DFS site of choice, which is the perfect amount of games, in my humble opinion. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for tonight’s NBA DFS slate.
Nikola Jokic is a given when he’s on the slate most of the time with his 65 DraftKings points a night average and highest ceiling on the slate. Tonight is especially the case with the 247-point total that covers tonight’s game against Indianapolis.
The Pacers are the sixth-fastest-paced team in the league and rank 19th defensively in the last 10 games. Jokic is coming off a down game with only 46 fantasy points. I’m more than happy to buy the dip. Projecting him for around 70 points feels right and there shouldn’t be much convincing needed here.
Note that Tyrese Maxey is questionable tonight with a right finger sprain but is expected to play and shouldn’t be limited much. He’s been playing 38 minutes a night and averaging 27 points a game on the season.
Maxey’s scoring is down in his last three games but I expect him to bounce back tonight against the Chicago Bulls. Chicago allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards and they run at the third-fastest pace with the third-worst defense in the league.
Maxey gets a bump at home and has a high ceiling against the Bulls. With only a $9,000 price tag, he’s a great DraftKings option and a solid choice on FanDuel.
As a bring-back option for Nikola Jokic may I advise Pascal Siakam? Again, it’s nearly a 250 total, so I expect a lot of rostership across this game. Denver has quietly been the fifth-fastest-paced team in the league and sits as the 17th-best defense.
Recently, the Nuggets have also allowed more points to opposing power forwards, allowing the eighth-most points to the position. Siakam has been consistent with a 24% percent usage rate but his scoring is due for positive regression. We’ve seen big games out of the Indiana power forward and I project this to be one of them.
For cash game lineups, I always target usage rates. James Harden has one of the highest, around 32% in recent play and 30% across the entire season. He’s also been playing more minutes of late, which is a benefit. I project him for around 50 fantasy points.
Harden is coming off a 68 fantasy point outing, which might up his rostership percentage but I don’t mind that here. We’ve seen the ceiling he’s capable of and his usage helps his floor. Don’t worry about the low total as Harden will potentially see the court for nearly 40 minutes, so he fits well in this spot.
This may come as a bit of a surprise, throwing a Brooklyn player on here, but Cam Johnson is a go-to with the matchup against Washington. The Wizards have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. The Wiz also rank second-lowest defensively with the fourth-fastest pace of play.
Brooklyn’s ranking as the top defense of late only helps with their transition play, assisted by turnovers from the 24th-ranked Washington offense. Johnson should play around 32 minutes with a 24% usage rate, which bodes well in this pace-up spot.
As a sub-$7,000 option, Johnson opens up room within the rest of your lineup to pay up, without sacrificing potential fantasy points for cashing. A lot of the Brooklyn players are solid options, so feel free to throw Ziaire Williams or Nic Claxton in the mix as well.
For your spend-down cash option at center, we have Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls center plays over 30 minutes a night and has seen a higher usage rate consistently over his last 10 games. He’s averaging 41 DraftKings points a night and has covered 30 in seven of his last nine games. That’s a respectable floor for his price tag.
I can’t say I’m exactly worried about Guerschon Yabusele guarding him down low and the 76ers defense as a whole has ranked near the bottom-of-the-barrel in their last 10 games. Don’t expect a high ceiling for Vucevic, so keep him to cash contests only. He’s been playing more and being used more in the new-look Bulls lineup, which makes me confident in this play in a game with a 232 total tonight.
I’m surprised Toumani Camara’s rostership isn’t projected higher considering his recent play, but Camara is one of the hottest players right now at his price tag. He’s been a new player following the All-Star break, tallying 42 and 50 DraftKings points in his two respective games.
There is a similar ceiling for Camara tonight with dual guard-forward eligibility, giving him Swiss Army potential in your lineups. Utah has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season and have allowed even more in their last 15 games. I expect rostership to increase as we get closer to lock, but for now, the Portland guard is lining up as one of my favorite plays on the slate.
If Tyrese Maxey is out, Quentin Grimes might be the highest-rostered player on the slate. Assuming Maxey plays, Grimes slots in as a sneaky GPP option. One of the two is going off tonight, if not both. Most of the rostership should go to Maxey but Grimes should be highly considered as well.
The Bulls allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards and I’ve mentioned the pace-up spot and the poor defense both teams exhibit, which should lead to a higher scoring affair. The 76ers guard has been much improved recently, scoring 30+ fantasy points in three of his last four games with a 54-point effort right before the All-Star break, highlighting his potential ceiling for tonight.
During his time in Chicago, Kevin Heurter hasn’t exactly shined, but he has consistently seen a higher usage rate with more playing time. He finally seems to have found his footing with a 14-point scoring effort across 30 minutes against Phoenix on Saturday. He looks to be one of the best values on the slate tonight.
Huerter is coming off a 25 DraftKings point outing and doing so again tonight would be an incredible 7X return to his salary. The 76ers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards in their last 14 contests. Assuming Heurter continues to see his usage and minutes grow within Chicago’s system, this is an excellent spot to roster him in your cash and GPP lineups.
If you’re looking to spend down at center tonight and go with value, Donovan Clingan is your option. Utah is the perfect matchup for Clingan. The Jazz have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers and Clingan seems to be finding his footing in his rookie season, playing more and more minutes.
Clingan has started the last three games and has seen a 17% usage rate in the last four games. Clingan is for sure a punt option at the center spot but is capable of going for over 30 fantasy points.
Any starter playing 20+ minutes is an easy value option. After his injury, the Jazz eased KJ Martin back into play. He is coming off a game where he played 29 minutes after slotting into the starting lineup. Expect more of the same tonight.
Even just getting to 21 fantasy points would be a solid return on investment. Martin has reached a ceiling of 37 fantasy points. While that is unlikely tonight, it shows what he’s capable of. Portland ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency this season and I’m not scared of them keeping Martin away from an efficient outing, which helps you pay up elsewhere.
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