A fire sale in Brooklyn? Major steps forward for guys named Jalen? Offensive improvement in Minnesota?

Heading into the 2024-25 season, The Athletic asked its NBA staff to offer bold predictions. Three months later, some are holding up well while others look to have been a bit too bold.

Here’s a progress report on each prediction — good, bad and ugly.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

Prediction: Baylor Scheierman will contribute

Outlook: I was wrong. Dead wrong. Remarkably wrong. I’ve been asked to write more words here, but no more are needed. Other young Celtics wings have earned opportunities, and it was apparent early in the preseason that Scheierman would need more time to develop. — Jay King

Brooklyn Nets

Prediction: Dorian Finney-Smith and Cam Johnson will be traded

Outlook: We’re halfway there, as Finney-Smith was recently traded to the Los Angeles Lakers for a package including D’Angelo Russell and a trio of second-round picks. Johnson has yet to be moved but is frequently discussed in NBA circles as the top trade chip in Brooklyn. Nets general manager Sean Marks has offloaded some key players for decent but not thrilling value, so it will be interesting to see how long it takes for a Johnson deal to materialize. — Jared Weiss

New York Knicks

Prediction: Jalen Brunson will win MVP

Outlook: Maybe I can’t admit to being wrong, but Brunson should be getting more MVP love. He was a top-five finalist last season, and this year, in an offensive league, his field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and true shooting percentage are all higher. Brunson’s points per game have dipped from north of 28 to north of 25, but that was to be expected with the additions of Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges. With that, though, he’s averaging a career-best 7.7 assists. The Knicks are double-digit games over .500, and Brunson is the engine. I still believe my prediction was a good one. — James L. Edwards III

Philadelphia 76ers

Prediction: Ricky Council IV will start by midseason

Outlook: Well, this one wasn’t even close. I was excited about Council’s 3-and-D potential heading into the regular season, but Jared McCain‘s early emergence got in the way. Injuries to McCain and Eric Gordon have cleared a path for some minutes, and Council has re-entered Nick Nurse’s rotation more as of late. But he’s not shooting well, and that’s his ticket to consistent minutes on a team that already had a plethora of solid but not spectacular wings. — Jared Weiss

Toronto Raptors

Prediction: Raptors will finish bottom four in the East

Outlook: Chicago Bulls? Competent! Detroit Pistons? Feisty! Brooklyn Nets? So competitive they already started trading their good players. Meanwhile, the Raptors have been beset by injuries, including significant ones to Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley. The Raptors have had some nice individual stories (RJ Barrett’s growth as a playmaker, Ochai Agbaji’s 3-and-D potential), but they are comfortably in the bottom three right now. Their easiest stretch is at the end of the season, so there might be some light sabotaging necessary to clinch this one. — Eric Koreen

GO DEEPER

In 2024, the Toronto Raptors finally took their medicine. It tasted awful

Central Division

Chicago Bulls

Prediction: Bulls will make the Play-In

Outlook: Spot-on. The Bulls started 2025 in ninth place in the Eastern Conference standings — the same spot they finished the past two seasons. Mediocrity has cursed this franchise and become predictable annually. And get this: Despite trading Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan in the offseason in the name of rebuilding, Chicago actually finished the 2024 portion of this year’s schedule a half-game ahead of last year’s pace. A team that wasn’t supposed to be competitive is now racking up more wins than last year’s playoff-hopeful roster. — Darnell Mayberry

Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: Cavs will trade one of their “core four”

Outlook: LOL … well, who had them as a 70-win team? Any hands? No? So, yeah, let’s not just laugh at me here. Typically, teams that start 17-1 don’t trade one of their “core four,” who in this case would be Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen. So I don’t feel great about this. But there is speculation out there that the Cavs aren’t physical enough to play Boston, New York or a healthy Orlando in a seven-game series. If GM Koby Altman believes that, he may have to trade Allen. But I’m betting the Cavs are letting their record direct them where to go. — Joe Vardon

Detroit Pistons

Prediction: Pistons will make the Play-In

Outlook: My colleague James L. Edwards III made this initial prediction, but I agree. The Pistons are 15-18 and in the Play-In race at 10th in the East. Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are on pace for career seasons in most statistical categories, though the Pistons may have to deal with an extended absence from Ivey, and Cunningham is on the verge of potentially earning his first All-Star bid. Malik Beasley has been the best surprise of the year for Detroit and is among the league leaders in made 3-pointers. The Play-In is a real possibility. — Hunter Patterson

Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren celebrate a 125-124 overtime win for the Pistons last month. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

Indiana Pacers

Prediction: Pacers will finish top four in the East

Outlook: LOL again. This time, go ahead and point at me. I didn’t see Tyrese Haliburton’s season-long slump coming. Andrew Nembhard has regressed back to his pre-playoff production, and the Pacers had a large swath of injuries in the frontcourt that has made for a less-than auspicious start. As of Friday morning, the Pacers are three games out of the fourth slot in the East. Plenty of time to get there, and Orlando just can’t catch a break, but the Milwaukee Bucks are much better now, and I have not ruled out the Miami Heat. All of which is to say, I don’t love my prediction. — Joe Vardon

Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo will win his third NBA MVP

Outlook: Somehow, Antetokounmpo is even better than he was last season. He’s leading the league in scoring (32.6 points per game) while shooting 61 percent from the field, grabbing 11.6 rebounds and dishing out six assists per game. On top of that, he is averaging 1.4 blocks per game, which is the most he has averaged since the 2021-22 season. The Bucks, though, haven’t been quite good enough as a team (17-15, tied for fifth in the East) to allow him to become the MVP favorite. He’s in the mix as we start the new year, but there is more work to be done. — Eric Nehm

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: Jalen Johnson will average 20 points per game

Outlook: Only 19.9! Step it up, Jalen! All jokes aside, Johnson could probably push well past 20 if he hadn’t been so adept operating as a facilitator for other Hawks. While Johnson’s average is easily a career high after netting 16.0 per game a year ago, the more notable feature is that he’s averaging 5.4 dimes per game from the power forward spot and often acting as the Hawks’ de facto point guard when Trae Young sits. — John Hollinger

GO DEEPER

With three letters, Jalen Johnson is helping to mold Hawks’ new identity

Charlotte Hornets

Prediction: Hornets will win more than 30 games

Outlook: Well, the Hornets are off that pace by a lot. With a .219 winning percentage, Charlotte would win about 18 games in an 82-game season, so let’s count this prediction as off-track as of right now. Generally speaking, though, the Hornets are on track. They have some intriguing young talent. LaMelo Ball is averaging 30 points per game, and Brandon Miller has taken on larger responsibility on offense, with the decrease in shooting efficiency and spike in turnover rate to match. This is a development year for Charlotte; it just looks like it’ll be more painful than originally expected. — Mike Vorkunov

Miami Heat

Prediction: Bam Adebayo will become a legitimate 3-point threat

Outlook: While Adebayo has attempted to venture out to the 3-point line more often this season, he’s been inconsistent with his outside shooting this season. He’s attempted 83 3-pointers in 32 games this season after tallying just 104 attempts in his first seven seasons. But Adebayo’s outside shooting has dipped along with just about every other aspect of his offense this year. He’s averaging 16.5 points, which is his lowest output since 2019-20, and he’s shooting around 46 percent from the field, easily the lowest of his career. As I’ve said in this space before, it’s hard to take the Heat seriously as an East contender without Adebayo showing some serious improvement as a secondary scoring option. — William Guillory

Orlando Magic

Prediction: The 3-point shooting will be better

Outlook: This prediction isn’t just off. It’s been way off. Three-point shooting was the Magic’s Achilles’ heel last season, making only 31.3 percent of their 3-point attempts, which was 24th in the league. This season, they’re even worse — and with a higher volume. Orlando entered the new year having made only 30.8 percent of its 3-point attempts, which ranked last in the entire league. Making matters worse is that Orlando finished December attempting 36.7 treys per game. Certainly, the Magic have been hurt by missing Paolo Banchero for almost the entire season; Banchero drew enough attention on offense that his presence created opportunities for teammates. What’s amazing is that the Magic have won this many games, opening the season 20-14, while shooting this badly from long range. The Magic’s defense really is that good. — Josh Robbins 

Washington Wizards

Prediction: Jordan Poole’s counting stats will improve

Outlook: This prediction’s been spot-on. Poole has enjoyed a renaissance season. More comfortable in his second year with Washington and working as the starting point guard, Poole entered the new year averaging 21.3 points and 5.0 assists per game. Those figures are up from last season’s 17.4 points and 4.4 assists per game. What’s been unexpected, perhaps, is how much more efficient Poole has been. Through the end of December, he had made nearly 41 percent of his 3-point attempts. — Josh Robbins

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets

Prediction: Michael Porter Jr. will make his first All-Star Game

Outlook: This has come with mixed results. Porter is having a good season, just not an All-Star season. He’s averaging almost 19 points per game and shooting 41 percent from 3-point range. But he’s still the third-best player in Denver’s offense despite openings to take on a bigger role, and if the Nuggets make a big trade in the next six weeks before the deadline, Porter is likely to be the trade bait. — Tony Jones

Michael Porter Jr. scores an easy two points against the Jazz last month. (Chris Nicoll / Imagn Images)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: Wolves will have a better offense in 2024-25

Outlook: Not great, Bob. Last season, the Timberwolves ranked 17th in the NBA in offensive efficiency with a 114.6 rating, a far cry from their top-ranked defense. The offensive mediocrity was the biggest reason they lost to the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference finals. The hope was that adding Donte DiVincenzo’s shooting and Julius Randle’s playmaking would give them more offensive depth, even if they were giving up the better offensive player in that trade in Karl-Anthony Towns. So far, that has not come to fruition. The Wolves are languishing at 20th on offense with a 111.2 rating, an enormous gap from even the uninspiring offense they had last season. Randle’s fit has been clunky, DiVincenzo is just starting to come out of a shooting slump to start the season and Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Mike Conley have all been lesser offensive players. The lack of spacing around Anthony Edwards in the starting lineup has led to a less dynamic presence from their All-Star as well. There have been little signs of life, but they have a long way to go. — Jon Krawczynski

Oklahoma City Thunder

Prediction: Jalen Williams will win Most Improved Player

Outlook: Williams certainly has a chance to garner this award — at least, so says Las Vegas. BetMGM gives him +350 odds to win, placing him behind the Heat’s Tyler Herro, who is at +275. Williams has shown off his defensive versatility and is helping the Thunder once again to the best record in the West. The counting stats — scoring, rebounding and assists — are all up slightly, though his efficiency is down. — Fred Katz

GO DEEPER

Jalen Williams’ ceiling? ‘It would be stupid’ to put one on OKC’s emerging star

Portland Trail Blazers

Prediction: Shaedon Sharpe becomes a household name

Outlook: After missing the first eight games recovering from a shoulder injury, Sharpe has become the Blazers leading scorer, averaging 17.8 points per game entering Thursday night, while providing several memorable dunks that should garner him an invite to the NBA All-Star Weekend Slam Dunk Contest. Most impressive was his dunk against Utah on Dec. 6, when Sharpe leapt 45.1 inches to catch and finish a lob. It was the highest a player has jumped in a game since the NBA began tracking leaps last season. This is not a full-blown success story — Sharpe still has lulls like his 5-for-14 from the field and 1-for-8 from 3 effort on Monday against Philadelphia — but he is showing more flashes for longer stretches. Also, he is becoming a go-to player in close games and ranks sixth in the NBA in clutch scoring (3.9 points per game), behind only Tyrese Maxey, Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, CJ McCollum and Jalen Brunson. The talent to become a household name is clearly there; the only question is whether the 21-year-old can display it on a regular basis. — Jason Quick

Utah Jazz

Prediction: Cody Williams will make a run at Rookie of the Year

Outlook: This one is not going well at all. I thought Williams would get plenty of opportunity on a team that doesn’t want to win. Well, he’s gotten the opportunity. But that opportunity has revealed he isn’t ready for NBA minutes. I’m high on Williams going forward. He has a ton of upside. But he has been rotating back and forth between the Jazz and the G League for good reason. An offseason in the weight room should do him well. — Tony Jones

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors

Prediction: They’ll make a significant trade

Outlook: Does Dennis Schröder count as significant? Probably not. But the Warriors showed their desperation to at least tweak the current cast when they flipped the contract of the injured De’Anthony Melton (and a net of two second-rounders) for Schröder the first moment they could. The Schröder fit hasn’t yet worked, and the Warriors’ roster shuffling may not be done. They’ve so far been lukewarm about the idea of a Jimmy Butler trade, but there’s still more than a month before the deadline and have been and will remain active until the buzzer, even if it’s for a middle-tier addition, like a Nikola Vučević. It’s clear they don’t have enough to be considered a legit contender at this point. — Anthony Slater

LA Clippers

Prediction: A starter will be traded

Outlook: I made that prediction in early October, and the only starter from then whom I can see being moved is Terance Mann, who started 71 games last season and the first 11 games this season before being replaced in the lineup by Kris Dunn. Mann has missed the past several weeks after finger surgery, and he is likely coming back around the same time as Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers have a surplus of wings while needing a more sturdy second-unit ballhandler and backup center. Mann’s contract is tradeable despite coming to an extension right before training camp, and it will be interesting to see if the Clippers hold onto him once again like they have in previous years when his name has generated interest across the league. — Law Murray

Los Angeles Lakers

Prediction: Anthony Davis will finish top five in MVP voting

Outlook: It’s … going. It looked like a strong prediction over the first 15 games of the season. The Lakers were 10-5, and Davis was averaging a career-high 31.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.9 blocks on 57.3/43.4/78.3 shooting splits. But after that 15th game — a one-point loss to Orlando in which Davis missed three free throws over the final 40 seconds — the Lakers were just 8-9 entering Thursday and Davis’ offensive production has dropped considerably. He could still be in the mix for the No. 5 spot on MVP ballots by mid-April, depending on how the Lakers fare the rest of the season, but it’s seeming unlikely. — Jovan Buha

Anthony Davis works against Golden State’s Trayce Jackson-Davis during the Lakers-Warriors Christmas Day matchup. (Darren Yamashita / Imagn Images)

Phoenix Suns

Prediction: The Suns are a top-four team in the West

Outlook: Oof. In my defense, I did include “health is always a concern” in that prediction. But for a team hovering around .500, that’s a Reggie Jackson-like, off-balance swing and miss. There are two parts to this: When healthy (which is kind of like saying, “when it rains in the desert”), the Suns have been top-four worthy. But Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker all have missed time. That part isn’t shocking. What is: Just how bad the Suns have been short-handed. After an 8-1 start, they dropped 15 of 22, a stretch that includes bad losses to New Orleans, Indiana and Detroit. At some point, the Suns will get healthy. And they’ll probably start winning. But any team that struggles to fight through adversity should not inspire confidence. — Doug Haller

Sacramento Kings

Prediction: Season will come down to crunchtime

Outlook: Well, they made a panic firing of their respected head coach, Mike Brown, in part because they had repetitive screw-ups in tense late-game scenarios, including a fumbled DeMar DeRozan pass on a potential game-winner, a missed Domantas Sabonis box-out on a free throw and an ill-timed De’Aaron Fox perimeter foul on a 3-point shooter, leading to three should-be wins turning into losses during a catastrophic 0-5 homestand. So, yes, their season has been defined in the clutch. Despite employing Fox and DeRozan, two historically elite fourth-quarter scorers, they lead the NBA in crunchtime losses (13). They did end Monday’s win with a 15-0 run over the Sixers, so maybe the tide is turning. — Anthony Slater

Southeast Division

Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: Mavs finish outside the top four

Outlook: Health is the only thing that can keep the Mavericks from finishing outside the top four in the West. Going into their Christmas matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Mavericks had won 14 of 17 games. Then Luka Dončić came up limping in the second quarter of that game. Dončić is expected to be out at least a month with a left calf strain. With Kyrie Irving leading one of the NBA’s deepest rosters, the Mavericks are still capable of playing winning basketball in this Luka-less stretch. But January will be a difficult test. — Christian Clark

GO DEEPER

Mavericks have built deepest roster of Luka Dončić era. It will be tested in January

Houston Rockets

Prediction: Rockets will finish top six in the West

Outlook: All systems go. As the calendar flips to 2025, Houston finds itself in third place in the West. In October, I predicted defensive improvement after a year under Ime Udoka, and at the time of writing, the Rockets own the second-best defensive rating in basketball. The arrival of Steven Adams was overstated, but starting center Alperen Şengün has become a central figure of Udoka’s scheme, and second-year forward Amen Thompson’s versatility as a reserve gives Houston a plethora of aggressive options. — Kelly Iko

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: Scotty Pippen Jr. will be in the rotation

Outlook: Should I have been bolder than this? Pippen was promoted from his two-way deal to a roster contract and has played every game for a team with the second-best record in the West. He’s not just some fringe guy, either. He’s been as big a plus on defense as expected, and offensively, he’s delivered more than two assists for every turnover and hit an acceptable 35.6 percent from 3. Even when star guard Ja Morant has been out of the lineup, the Grizzlies have barely missed a beat with Pippen at the controls, going 9-4 in his 13 starts. — John Hollinger

New Orleans Pelicans

Prediction: Zion Williamson will make an All-NBA team

Outlook: Well, this one certainly hasn’t gone well. The most important development for last year’s Pelicans team was Williamson remaining (mostly) healthy throughout the regular season before straining his hamstring in a Play-In Tournament loss against the Lakers. This season, Williamson has played just six games as he continues to battle hamstring issues. He’s expected to make his return relatively soon, but his extended absence has played a major role in the Pelicans having such a dismal season. — William Guillory

San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: Wemby, CP3 lead way to Play-In

Outlook: The Spurs have a few things working in their favor — both Phoenix and Sacramento have underperformed relative to expectations — and San Antonio is trending upward. Victor Wembanyama is the obvious reason why, and he just finished the month of December averaging 4.4 blocks a game (in addition to his rapidly improving scoring production), but the Frenchman isn’t the only positive. Can we show some love to Chris Paul, who’s having a bit of a renaissance at age 39? The Spurs are a whopping plus-19.6 when he’s on the floor (99th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass), which looks a lot like prime CP3 in his Clippers heyday. San Antonio did well bringing an adult in the locker room , and it’s paid tremendous dividends. — Kelly Iko

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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; top photos: Scott Taetsch, Ethan Miller, Kent Smith / NBAE via Getty Images)