Photo:

Alex Evers / Eclipse Sportswire

Santa Anita announced several new wager minimums for their autumn meet starting Friday and we can look for these to boost payoffs this meet.

Kudos to the Santa Anita team and to Peter Rotondo, 1/ST Racing senior vice president of racing and wagering, for coming up with these new wagering opportunities. I want to extend that kudos to all tracks that are experimenting with new wager types and themes to make the game more fun and appealing for all. The great thing about wager types is that in most cases there is zero cost to try new wagers and if they aren’t popular, there’s no harm in trying. 

New minimums 

The Pick 6 increases from $1 to $2 base and new additions include a $3 late Pick 3 and a $5 late daily double. All of these increases can significantly increase the cost of tickets, often forcing bettors to reduce coverage in these horizontal wagers and create tighter tickets with less combinations. This means bettors will be rewarded even more for being correct or including higher-priced winners that might have been included on a $1 base ticket but are often removed from a more expensive overall ticket due to the higher base. 

This is just basic math but sometimes it helps to illustrate. For example, in a Pick 3, let’s say you got the races down to three contenders in each race. On a $1 minimum, the cost is 3x3x3 = $27 x $1 base = $27 total.  But obviously on a $3 base that same ticket is now $81. For some players, the $81 may be out of their price range or beyond the confidence they have in the sequence. So it changes customer behavior which has the potential to increase payoffs. 

Higher minimums, bigger payouts expected

Looking at past data, we can see higher minimums growing payouts. In advance of the 2023-2024 winter meet, Santa Anita increased the minimum on the Pick 3 from 50 cents to $1.00. Looking at data from Jan. 1, 2023 through today, this increase more than doubled payoffs, which grew from an average 50 cent payoff of $103.99 to an average $1 payoff of $268.34. That’s a payoff increase of 158 percent when the wager base is increased 100 percent. 

So what’s the best strategy?

The bigger minimums are nice opportunity for horseplayers but the higher minimums do cause you to change your bankroll or strategy or both. My preference is to change strategy to go a little tighter on your tickets.

In the late Pick 3 example, instead of playing 3x3x3, try to find value in the sequence. Many players will try to single favorites, so if the favorite wins the first leg, its likely you won’t get the big payoff boost you are looking for. So maybe leave the favorite off the first leg, try to catch the right with the other two options that pay better. If you miss and you like the last two races, then just reload with the $5 late daily double.