Michigan State football at Illinois: Scouting report, prediction

Posted by Admin November 15, 2024 Football

Free Press sports writer Chris Solari looks ahead to Michigan State football‘s final road game of the season Saturday at Illinois.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan State (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten) at Illinois (6-3, 3-3).

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday; Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois

TV/radio: FS1, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Illini by 3.

Availability report

MSU: Out: LS Kaden Schickel (left leg, season), DE Avery Dunn (season, undisclosed), TE Michael Masunas (shoulder, season), OL Kristian Phillips (left leg, season), OL Gavin Broscious (lower left leg, season), DB Khalil Majeed (lower body, season), CB Chance Rucker (right arm), DB Dillon Tatum (lower body). Questionable: CB Charles Brantley (lower left leg), S Malik Spencer (undisclosed), WR Jaron Glover (undisclosed). Probable: QB Aidan Chiles (undisclosed).

Illinois: Out: RB Kaden Feagin (hip surgery, season), WR Ashton Hollins (shoulder surgery, season), TE Cole Rusk (knee, season).

Scouting report

When MSU has the ball: The health of Aidan Chiles is the biggest question mark going into the Spartans’ first game in two weeks. The sophomore quarterback left the Nov. 2 loss to Indiana after absorbing a hard hit on a rollout pass. He did not return and had a wrap on his throwing hand on the sideline per the Peacock broadcast, but it is unclear if that was the injury that knocked Chiles out of the game. Already was playing without starting receiver Jaron Glover, it was more of the same for the MSU offense — a hot start while moving the ball efficiently on the first two drives before everything dissolved.

The Hoosiers pressured Chiles and backup Tommy Schuster all day for seven sacks, and the run game got smothered as the sacks and two special teams gaffes left the Spartans with the second-worst single-game performance in program history at minus-36 rushing yards. The Spartans rank 104th in the country in total offense (345.8 yards) and 109th in rushing yards (117.8), and their 19.8 points a game are 119th out of 133 Football Bowl Subdivision teams.

The Illini, like MSU coming off a bye week, are coming off their worst two defensive games of the seasons in a 38-9 road loss at No. 1 Oregon followed with a 25-17 home loss to Minnesota on Nov. 2. The Gophers had 361 total yards, including 148 rushing, while the Ducks posted 229 of its 527 yards on the ground. For the season, coach Bret Bieleman’s defense allows 365.4 total yards (67th nationally) and 154 rushing yards (77th) per game, but Illinois ranks 32nd at just 21.1 points permitted per game.

When Illinois has the ball: Like MSU’s offense, injuries on defense remain a concern, particularly in the secondary. Cornerback Charles Brantley and safety Malik Spencer both left the Indiana game late in the first half and did not return, with Brantley on crutches on the sideline wearing a boot after halftime. The Spartans already are without one starting cornerback in Chance Rucker and a key versatile piece in Dillon Tatum, which has opened late-season opportunities for freshmen Justin Denson and Jaylen Thompson at safety. MSU also lost transfer defensive end Anthony Jones late in the loss to the Hoosiers, but only after his former team scored at will in the final three quarters and posted 385 yards for the game. Despite having faced top-6 juggernauts in Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana, the Spartans rank 31st in the FBS in allowing just 323.6 yards per game but are tied for 64th with 24.1 points allowed. After starting the season with 15 sacks in the first four games, MSU has not had one in its last five. The Spartans hope to correct that against an Illinois offense that has given up 28 sacks on the season and 21 in its last five games, including seven against Penn State, five against Purdue and four apiece in the losses to the Ducks and Gophers. That has hamstrung the Illini offense, which ranks 95th at 356.0 total yards and 91st at 142.4 rushing yards per game. Illinois averages 25.9 points, buoyed by a 50-49 overtime home win against Purdue.

Know the foe

Luke Airwalker: Quarterback Luke Altmyer averages 210.3 passing yards per game with 16 touchdown tosses to three interceptions. The 6-2, 205-pound junior and one-time Ole Miss transfer started the season by becoming just the third Big Ten QB in the past 20 years with 10 or more passing touchdowns and no interceptions through four games. (Ohio State’s Justin Fields in 2019 and Purdue’s Kyle Orton in 2004 are the other two.)

Altmyer missed the final three games last season after suffering a concussion.

Making up ground: The Illini lost running back Kaden Feagin, their leading rusher through five games, to hip surgery last month. Feagin had 67 carries for 307 yards and three touchdowns. In his absence, it has meant an expanded role for 6-1, 235-pound junior Josh McCray (71 carries, 330 yards, four touchdowns) and 5-11, 200-pound sophomore Aidan Laughery (53 carries, 287 yards). Altmyer also is a threat to take off, with his 77 rushes producing 148 yards overall — the QB has 337 gained before lost yardage on sacks.

Secondary threat: Illini cornerback Xavier Scott is a semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, given annually to the nation’s top defensive back, and is a key catalyst at every level. The 5-11, 190-pound junior is tied for fourth in the Big Ten with four interceptions with four pass breakups and seven passes defended.

He also has produced 33 tackles with a sack and a forced fumble, rated with the No. 2 tackling grade among Power Four cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus College and as the No. 14-graded cornerback in major conferences.

Chris Solari’s two cents

Bye-bye: The Spartans come off their second bye of the season seeking a second skid-stopping victory. MSU ended a three-game losing streak on Oct. 19 with a dominating 32-20 homecoming win over Iowa but has lost two in a row since, with a hard-fought 24-17 defeat at Michigan before getting stomped by the Hoosiers. Coach Jonathan Smith’s team needs two more wins in its final three games to get bowl eligible for the first time since 2021, with the last two in East Lansing. The Spartans have a short turnaround after facing Illinois to a Friday-night game next week against Purdue (8 p.m., Fox), followed by the Nov. 30 regular-season finale against Rutgers.

Bret ball: In his fourth year, coach Bret Bielema has revived Illini football after years of dormancy. Illinois is 24-22 under the former Wisconsin coach and Iowa and has qualified for a bowl game for the second time in his tenure.

MSU won the only meeting against Bielema’s Illini in 2022, a 23-15 road upset in Champaign with Illinois ranked No. 15 at the time and in the midst of an eight-win season. He is 3-5 all-time against the Spartans including his seven seasons with the Badgers.

Prediction

Chiles returns from his injury and teams with freshman receiver Nick Marsh to open up the offense, getting better blocking up front that gives running backs Nate Carter and Kay’ron Lynch-Adams some breathing room they lacked against Indiana. The Spartans’ pass rush finds the elixir to get more pressure in the Illini’s leaky offensive line, and MSU heads home needing one more win to secure an extra month of football. The pick: MSU 23, Illinois 17.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

Subscribe to the “Spartan Speak” podcast for new episodes weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or anywhere you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts.