Michigan State football at Boston College: 5 determining factors and a prediction

Posted by Admin September 18, 2024 Football

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Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State’s football game at Boston College, 8 p.m. Saturday. TV: ACC Network. Betting line: Boston College -7.

1. Aidan Chiles, Nick Marsh and explosive plays

I don’t think Michigan State is going to win this game at the line of scrimmage, at least not with its offensive line. For the Spartans’ offense to be a problem for Boston College, they’re going to have to get into the Eagles’ secondary, force them to tackle in space and probably once or twice beat them over the top. In other words, MSU is going to need explosive plays.

The Spartans won at Maryland in no small part because quarterback Aidan Chiles and receiver Nick Marsh connected on a 77-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, because Chiles found Jaron Glover for a 34-touchdown earlier and, when MSU needed yards on third down, its receivers and tight end Jack Velling got open beyond the sticks. The Terrapins geared their defense to stop MSU’s running game and make Chiles beat them with his arm. He did. BC’s defensive approach might be more mindful of the big play in the passing game. It should be. It’s MSU’s best chance to score enough points to win.

2. MSU still has to try to run the ball

This might turn into one of those games where, for MSU, rushing attempts are almost as important as rushing yards. Even if Kay’ron Lynch-Adams and Nathan Carter are regularly bottled up, keep trying, keep the defense honest. Missouri last week made Boston College’s defense look vulnerable, on the ground as well, rushing 43 times for 176 yards. Among Florida State’s many issues in losing to BC was that the ’Noles gave up on the run, rushing just 16 times for 21 yards. Lynch-Adams and Carter have both shown the ability to break a long one. MSU has to give them that chance and keep BC’s defense playing the run, allowing Chiles and Co. to be effective with play-action. MSU has rushed at least 31 times in all three games thus far, so there’s no evidence they won’t stick with it Saturday. But this could be the toughest sledding yet.

3. How MSU’s defensive front fares against BC’s offensive line and QB

We’re going to learn a lot about MSU’s defensive front and defense in general Saturday night. Boston College’s strength is probably its offensive line, a physical group that mauled Florida State and had some good moments at Missouri last week. Behind them, the Eagles have a small but mobile and versatile quarterback in Thomas Castellanos. Castellanos is a better passer than what MSU faced against Florida Atlantic — he passed for more than 2,200 yards last season and rushed for more than 1,100 for BC. But he can be coaxed into a mistake when a defense gets after him. Missouri did. I think MSU has a chance to, based on what we’ve seen.

MSU’s defense — its ability to stifle the run, tackle in space and put pressure on the quarterback — has been the strength of this team and perhaps the surprise of this season. This unit, especially up front, looks like it might be legitimately good. Boston College’s offensive line looks like it is, too.

4. Can MSU make this game about BC’s secondary and kicking game

If Boston College has a vulnerability, it might be its defensive backfield tackling in space and its lack of experience in the kicking game. Missouri’s receivers ran around BC’s DBs. That’s a pretty good group of wideouts at Mizzou, though, so it won’t be easy to replicate. But it’s something to watch. Also, the Eagles are yet to attempt a field goal this season. MSU’s kicker, on the other hand, has already hit a game-winner on the road. These are both areas where, if it’s a tight game late, MSU could have an advantage.

5. Penalties

You can see Jonathan Smith beginning to get a little grumpy about MSU’s penalties. For good reason, the Spartans rank 131st out of 133 FBS teams in penalties (33) and penalty yards (342) and have reached double-digit penalties in three straight games for the first time since 2003 and over 100 yards in penalty yards three straight weeks for the first time since at least 1932. So it’s a thing. And it’s a problem. Unless you’re a physically dominating team, you’re not going to win on the road in the Big Ten all that often if you’re giving up 100-plus yards in penalties and extending opponents’ drives and crippling your own. The Spartans have to find a way to tighten up in these areas. You can live with aggressive penalties. But false starts, formation blunders, the undisciplined moments, mistakes on key downs — they’ve got to get a handle on these things or it’ll cost them a game pretty soon, perhaps this week.

Prediction

It’s hard to know exactly how difficult this road environment will be for MSU. It’s a night game, in a stadium with some character to it and a student section that showed up for the last home game and should be there for this one. Word on the street is there’s a little bit of a buzz about BC football around Boston. I also think there could be a decent MSU fan section, too, given the number of alums out east and that this is a pretty good destination road game. I expect it’ll feel different than at Maryland, where the crowd, while better than it showed on TV, really wasn’t a factor. MSU will have to play well to win. Probably more mistake-free than at Maryland. I think this will be a game in the fourth quarter and MSU has already shown they’re up for that.

Make it: Boston College 24, MSU 20

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.