• What: Michigan State vs. Oregon
• When: Noon Saturday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 81 (MSU broadcast), 195 (Oregon broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 18-4 overall, 9-2 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 9 in both the Coaches Poll and in The Associated Press Poll, and is No. 16 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com and No. 20 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. Oregon is 16-7 overall, 5-7 in the Big Ten and unranked in the polls. The Ducks are No. 38 nationally, per Kenpom, and 36 in the NET rankings.
• Projected betting line: MSU -8 (via Kenpom’s predicted score, which is where Vegas gets its lines these days)
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 725-299 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Oregon — Dana Altman is 771-402 in 36 seasons as an NCAA Division I head coach, including 361-159 in 15 seasons with the Ducks. Before that, he coached at Creighton for 16 seasons, after shorter stints at Kansas State and Marshall and in the juco ranks.
• Series: The teams have only met four times throughout their history, splitting the games 2-2. They’ve only played once since 1988, however, with MSU winning at the 2022 PK85 tournament in Portland, Oregon. This is their first meeting as Big Ten brethren.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.3
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.4
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.5
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 8.0
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.7
Oregon
C (32) Nate Bittle (7-0) 12.5
PF (21) Brandon Angel (6-9) 9.8
SF (5) TJ Bamba (6-5) 10.5
G (9) Keeshawn Barthelemy (6-2) 9.4
G (3) Jackson Shelstad (6-0) 12.3
• MSU update: The Spartans are no longer in first place in the Big Ten after back-to-back losses to USC and UCLA in Los Angeles, though at 9-2, MSU is only a half-game behind 10-2 Purdue and tied with Michigan, which is also 9-2. These next two home games — against Oregon (Saturday) and Indiana (Tuesday) — are probably must-wins if the Spartans want to win the Big Ten, given the schedule that follows: At Illinois, Purdue, at Michigan, at Maryland, Wisconsin, at Iowa, Michigan. Other than the road game at Iowa, all of those matchups are against teams with a Kenpom ranking of 21 or better.
MSU’s biggest continued issue is its outside shooting. After going 5-for-22 against UCLA, MSU is now 46-for-161 on 3-point tries since the beginning of January, which is less than 29%. The Spartans are no longer atop the conference in offensive efficiency in league play (they’ve slid to third), though, per Kenpom, they remain No. 1 in defensive efficiency, 3-point defense (allowing opponents to shoot just 27.4%), block rate and offensive rebounding percentage.
MSU might be without Xavier Booker, who’s sick and missed Thursday’s practice. Jase Richardson, who left Tuesday’s game after getting the wind knocked out of him (running into Booker), said he’s fine and would have been OK to return Tuesday after catching his breath.
• Oregon update: At one point not so long ago, the Ducks looked like they might be Big Ten contenders. But they’ve lost four straight and five of six, a slide that reached its low point with an eight-point loss at Minnesota, followed by a 26-point defeat at UCLA. Wednesday night’s 80-76 loss at Michigan was Oregon’s best showing in a while. This is a team that beat Maryland, won at Ohio State, beat USC and fell to UCLA by two the first time around. The capability is there. The Ducks’ problem begins on the offensive end, where in conference play they rank 17th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, though they’ve also had some notably poor defensive performances of late.
• Matchup analysis: The Ducks should be better than they’ve been playing, given their personnel and their start to the season. Sophomore Jackson Shelstad is a gifted lead guard, though perhaps hasn’t taken the step that was projected for him after a promising freshman season. Still, he’s a dangerous scorer and outside shooter, who’s averaging 15.3 points per game in conference play and shooting 48% from beyond on the arc. Beating Oregon begins with defending him. Nate Bittle, a 7-foot senior, is a quality offensive player. He has good hands and can score around the rim. But what makes him a tough cover is that he can stretch the floor with his outside shot. He’ll be a challenge for MSU’s big men. His size suggests this is a good matchup for Szymon Zapala, but Zapala’s strength is not defending the perimeter, so Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler and Xavier Booker will likely be on him most. TJ Bamba, a Villanova transfer, is a physical wing and good two-way player. Oregon also has some guys around Shelstad who can create in guard Keeshawn Barthelemy, who’s moved into the starting lineup, and Stanford transfer Brandon Angel, who’s a skilled wing/4-man. Collectively, however, the Ducks are not a great outside shooting team and they don’t rebound all that well. And in a couple recent games, they were simply outworked.
• Prediction: This is an enormous game for MSU, which can’t lose games like this — at home, against a capable but struggling team — if it wants to win a Big Ten title and keep this season going in the right direction. I like Oregon’s roster. The Spartans would be wise to get out of the gate quickly and have one of those home games where their energy on the defensive end is smothering.
• Make it: MSU 78, Oregon 71
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
— Graham Couch
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
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