• What: Michigan State vs. Illinois
• When: Noon Sunday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 196 (MSU broadcast), 197 (Illinois broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 15-2 overall, 6-0 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 12 in both the Coaches Poll and in The Associated Press Poll, and is No. 14 via the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Illinois is 13-4 overall, 5-2 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 19 in the AP poll and 20 by the Coaches, unranked by the major polls, while being rated No. 8 by Kenpom.
• Projected betting line: MSU -2 (via Kenpom’s prediction, which is how Vegas sets its line these days)
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 722-297 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Illinois — Brad Underwood is 265-119 in his 12th season as an NCAA head coach, including 156-92 in his eighth season with the Illini.
• Series: MSU leads 65-64 all-time, with each team winning on its home court last season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.8
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.9
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 14.2
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.5
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.9
Illinois
C (13) Tomislav Ivisic (7-1) 13.0
F (3) Ben Humrichous (6-9) 9.2
F (22) Tre White (6-7) 10.9
G (4) Kylan Boswell (6-2) 11.8
G (32) Kasparas Jakucionis (6-6) 16.7
• MSU update: The Spartans have won 10 straight games for the first time in six seasons, after Wednesday’s 90-85 win over Penn State. They have not, however, beaten an opponent of Illinois’ caliber, by any metric or poll, this season. And MSU’s only two games against teams either ranked as high as Illinois or rated as high by Kenpom — Memphis and Kansas — are the Spartans only two defeats. Entering the weekend, MSU sits alone atop the Big Ten standings at 6-0, as the league’s only unbeaten team in conference play, just ahead of Purdue (6-1), Michigan (5-1), Illinois (5-2), Oregon (4-2) and Wisconsin (4-2). That’s likely the extent of the contenders in the Big Ten. Of those teams, MSU plays Illinois and Michigan twice — both home and away — and everybody else once, with each of those three games at Breslin Center.
MORE: Couch: Frankie Fidler is beginning to realize he can be a big part of MSU’s winning
• Illinois update: The Illini are coming off a 94-69 win at Indiana on Tuesday, which followed a somewhat surprising home defeat to USC. That loss, however, came without star freshman guard and leading scorer Kasparas Jakucionis, a projected top five pick in this summer’s NBA draft, who missed that game and the one before it with a forearm injury suffered at Washington. He returned against Indiana on Tuesday and scored 21 points, made three 3s and dished five assists. This is essentially a new Illinois team from a year ago, featuring two foreigners in Jakucionis, from Lithuania, and 7-foot-1 first-year center Tomislav Ivisic, from Croatia, both with professional experience in Europe. Tom Izzo suggested that having these two Europeans, lacking American player entitlement, at the core of the Illinois’ team has perhaps helped to create a culture that’s allowed for an all-new, NIL-built roster to exist cohesively and in harmony, while most teams with high payrolls and high turnover have struggled. Brad Underwood’s background might help, as well. His years coaching both at the top of the junior college ranks — at both Dodge City and Daytona Beach — would have been good experience remaking a roster every year.
• Matchup analysis: Kasparas Jakucionis is a special talent. There’s some Steph Curry to his game. His step-back 3 off the bounce stands out at the college level and is among the reasons he’s projected as a high NBA draft pick. You don’t see players making those sort of 3s with his efficiency very often. He can create off the drive, too. Izzo MSU will throw different players and looks at him. That could start with Jaden Akins, who can be an elite defender and will want to prove that against someone like Jakucionis, with Jeremy Fears Jr. or Tre Holloman on another dangerous guard in Arizona transfer Kylan Boswell. Illinois’ size on the wing, beginning with Tre White, could be a challenge for MSU’s smaller three-guard lineups.
Jakucionis is one of six Illinois players with 17 or more made 3s on the season, though the Illini are connecting on just 33% of their 3s as a team, including 31.8% in conference games. MSU, for all of its perceived outside shooting struggles, is making 34.8% of its 3s in Big Ten games. Where the Illini have been elite is on the other end of the court and on the glass. They’ve held opponents to 27.8% on 3-point attempts and their defensive efficiency is in the top 10, per Kenpom. MSU is No. 14 in that category. Both are also top-tier rebounding teams, though Illinois has been a tad stronger statistically. That begins with big man Tomislav Ivisic. Ben Humrichous is a stretch 4-man, an Evansville transfer who cannot be left alone on the perimeter and has hit 37 of 99 3s this season.
• Prediction: Pound for pound, Illinois is the Big Ten’s most talented team. But MSU at its best has played as well as anyone in the league and has shown with its depth and variety that it has a counter for just about every matchup. The Spartans are a different team now than they were in Atlanta or Maui. This is the first time THIS MSU team has faced an opponent of this caliber. Home games aren’t the whole truth, but this will be a telling game for the Spartans.
• Make it: MSU 77, Illinois 74
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
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