Michigan State basketball prediction vs Illinois: Spartans must stop Kasparas Jakucioni

Posted by Admin January 19, 2025 Basketball

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EAST LANSING – Tom Izzo showed Kasparas Jakučionis his utmost sign of respect.

He wouldn’t even try to pronounce his name. But Michigan State basketball’s Hall of Fame coach had plenty to say about the Illinois star’s game.

“To me, he’s one of the best players I’ve seen,” Izzo said after practice Friday. “I think they’re the best team I’ve seen so far.”

The schedule toughens from here until March for the 12th-ranked Spartan, starting with Sunday’s visit from the freshman phenom and his surging No. 20 Illini. Tipoff is noon at Breslin Center (CBS).

Big Ten-leading MSU (15-2, 6-0) has won 10 straight and 13 of its last 14. Illinois (13-4, 5-2) is the first ranked opponent since the Spartans began their win streak with a 94-91 overtime Maui Invitational win Nov. 27 over then-No. 13 North Carolina, which has since fallen out of the USA TODAY Coaches Poll.

MSU enters Saturday’s games ranked No. 17 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings but with the No. 46 strength of schedule, according to KenPom.com. Illinois is seventh in the NET and 22nd in SOS.

The Illini lost a stunner at home to USC on Jan. 11 with Jakučionis out with an arm injury, and their other Big Ten loss was by four in overtime at Northwestern on Dec. 6. They returned to form Tuesday upon Jakučionis’ return from a two-game absence with a 94-69 dismantling of Indiana in Bloomington.

“They got a couple losses. One of them (Jakučionis) didn’t play,” Izzo said. “They played a couple good teams and had tight games. But that is right now the best team in the league. And that includes us.”

Stopping Jakučionis – pronounced “KAS-per-es/yah-koo-CHOH-nis” – has been a chore for opponents when he is in Illinois’ lineup. The 6-foot-6, 205-pound shooting guard from Lithuania delivers 16.7 points to lead five Illini players scoring in double figures, 12th-best in the Big Ten and with seven games of 20-or-more points.

Izzo said Jakučionis plays like a pro due to his time spent with FC Barcelona, one of the top club teams in Europe.

“He’s very comfortable in his own skin. Not cocky, very unselfish,” Izzo said. “Looks like a pleasure to coach, to be very honest. I was really impressed watching him.”

Jakučionis hits 41.6% from 3-point range but also is a well-rounded playmaker who contributes 5.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game from the wing.

“He’s a really good passer,” MSU guard Jaden Akins said. “He makes 3s and he plays off the dribble really well. Shifty. It’s gonna take a full team effort. We got to be there and not give them any easy looks or any easy passes to make and just be solid.”

Brad Underwood once again reset Illinois’ roster through the portal with six transfers, along with 7-1 Croatian import Tomislav Ivišić who leads the Illini with 8.8 rebounds to go with his 13.0 points. Two other starters, 6-2 Arizona transfer Kylan Boswell (11.8 points/5.0 rebounds) and 6-7 Louisville transfer Tre White (10.9 points/5.5 rebounds) are a big reason Illinois leads the nation in rebounding margin (plus-12.4) and defensive rebounds (32.18) while ranking second in rebounds per game (45.47).

“The whole team crashes to glass hard,” senior forward Frankie Fidler, who had eight rebounds with his team-high 18 points in Wednesday’s 90-85 win over Penn State. “Box-outs are going to be important in this game.”

The Illini average 87.3 points a game, fifth in Division I, and a 20-point average margin of victory that is sixth-best. Their defense gives up 67.3 points a game (65th) and ranks seventh in holding opponents to 27.8% from 3-point range.

“They got a lot of new pieces that could do a lot of different things, and they’re talented,” said Akins, who leads MSU’s deep scoring at 14.2 points a game “They go to the offensive glass really hard, so we just gotta be locked in on both sides of the ball.”

MSU will get six days off between Sunday’s game and Saturday’s trip to New York’s Madison Square Garden to face Rutgers. A long road trip to Los Angeles to face USC and UCLA begins an arduous February slate.

But first comes a measuring-stick test against Illinois that will give Izzo and everyone else watching the rapid growth and development of the Spartans to see just how much of the hot streak is real and how much the easier early schedule mattered.

Prediction

MSU 70, Illinois 68: With a crowd whipped into a fervor thanks to the nationally televised game, the Spartans use their defensive versatility to bottle up Jakučionis in a back-and-forth battle. It comes down to a final possession, with Akins showing he is emerging as MSU’s closer when a big-time bucket is needed.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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