Michigan football prediction, scouting report for 'The Game' vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Michigan football prediction, scouting report for ‘The Game’ vs. No. 2 Ohio State

Posted by Admin November 29, 2024 Football

Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football’s 2024 Week 14 matchup against the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2024 regular season finale at Ohio Stadium.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten).

Kickoff: Noon. Saturday; Ohio Stadium, Columbus.

TV/radio: Fox; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Buckeyes by 20½.

Michigan football vs. Ohio State availability report

Michigan: Out: QB Jack Tuttle (retired), DB Rod Moore (ACL), DB Ja’Den McBurrows (undisclosed, out for season), OL Andrew Gentry (out for season). Doubtful: LB Micah Pollard (undisclosed), DB Jaden Mangham (undisclosed), Questionable: DB Will Johnson (foot), TE Colston Loveland (undisclosed), WR Semaj Morgan (undisclosed), OL Jeff Persi (lower body), WR Amorion Walker (undisclosed).

Ohio State: Missed Week 13: WR Nolan Baudo, RB TC Caffey, (season), OL Zen Michalski, OL Chase McLaughlin (Achilles, season), OL Josh Simmons (lower body, season), WR Reis Stocksdale.

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: It’s one of the worst passing offenses in America going against the nation’s No. 1 defense. Michigan’s offense has struggled much of the year, as it ranks No. 107 in scoring (23.1 points), No. 127 passing (140.1 yards per game) and No. 128 in America in total offense (299.7 yards per game), ahead of only Florida State and Northwestern in the Power Four. Michigan got its ground game going last week (201 rushing yards and five touchdowns) vs. the Wildcats and will have to do so again for success Saturday — remember, the last time a team won this game and didn’t have more rushing yards came in 2000 when Drew Henson threw for more than 300 yards and three scores for Lloyd Carr’s group. That’s not likely to happen this year, and with Colston Loveland less than 100%, it makes it even more paramount to move the ball on the ground. U-M converted 11 of 16 third downs last week, its best all year. It has to match that pace again to have a shot.

When Ohio State has the ball: Pick your poison with the Buckeyes, who rank No. 10 in scoring (37.8 points per game) and No. 28 in total offense (439.1 yards per game). It’s a balanced attack under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly as they rank top-50 in both the pass (tied for No. 31, 261.5 yards per game) and the run (No. 48, 177.5 yards per game). True freshman Jeremiah Smith is a one-man wrecking crew and leads OSU with 52 catches for 899 yards and nine touchdowns. U-M star DB Will Johnson is questionable for this game, which would go a long way toward slowing down one of the “three werewolves,” as defensive coordinator Wink Martindale called OSU’s wideouts earlier this week. Michigan’s front four has to get home to both the quarterback and to slow the run game without dedicating extra men in the box.

Know the foe

Portal problems: It was earlier this calendar year many college football fans were complaining about OSU’s use of the portal and reportedly spending $20 million to supplement its roster. But there’s a reason they cost a pretty penny. Quarterback Will Howard (Kansas State) has been good, not great, but OSU is still well ahead of U-M at the position. Howard has completed 208 of 281 (74.0%) of his passes for 2,685 yards with 33 total touchdowns and six interceptions.

His running back, Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), has had a solid first year in Columbus as well, running 135 times for 759 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns in split time in the backfield. Then, there’s defensive back Caleb Downs — Michigan fans may remember him from last year’s Rose Bowl game, when he played for Alabama — who is one of the best safeties in America with 29 tackles, 6½ for loss, two sacks, three pass breakups and a quarterback hurry.

Familiar faces: Just because OSU supplemented its roster with talent from all over the nation doesn’t mean it don’t have a healthy batch of home-grown talent. Wide receivers Emeka Egbuka (within 150 yards receiving of being among the top five in Columbus all time) and Carnell Tate are still in the fold, as is running back TreVeyon Henderson, who brings the thunder (98 carries, 730 yards and six touchdowns) to complement Judkins’ lightning. On defense, it’s senior JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer and Tyleik Williams on the line; fifth-year seniors Lathan Ransom and Cody Simon in the back seven with senior Denzel Burke and junior Sonny Styles, all of whom are All-Big Ten candidates. Davison Igbinosun has six pass breakups and two interceptions, but has been flagged (13 times) more than anybody else in America.

Ryan (he’d better hope it’s his) Day: Ryan Day is 12-8 against top-10 teams during his time in Columbus, but that doesn’t matter this week, as he has lost three straight in the one game that matters. Day is 65-6 vs. everybody outside of Ann Arbor and just 1-3 vs. Michigan. Earlier this week, he called it “the worst thing that’s happened” to him and his family, outside of the death of his father, and said they all have to make sure it “never happens again.” If U-M pulls off the upset, though, Day may need to win the national title in January to save his job. The problem is Day is 4-6 in top-five games; it’s not enough that he’s an astonishing 62-3 the other 65 times his team has taken the field.

Tony Garcia’s two cents

Gold-pants glory? The Michigan senior class is looking to do something that hasn’t been done since 1988-91: Sweep Ohio State four years in a row. While players such as Donovan Edwards say that’s not the focus, those on the other side, such as senior Jack Sawyer, admit how much it’s eaten at them to not have a victory over their arch rival. In Columbus, winners of “The Game” get a charm in the shape of gold pants. There are none that belong to any players in that locker room, currently.

“Coming off three or four Big Ten championship wins, haven’t lost to ‘The Team Up North’ in eight, nine years — and then when my class gets there, it kind of reverses,” Sawyer said at Big Ten media days in July. “For me, being the type of guy I am, I think naturally I felt like we let, I let not only Ryan Day down, but I let the city down. So for me, it’s all about coming back. And a lot of us, we all feel the same way, too, is that we can’t, we weren’t gonna leave here without having one more shot at doing this the right way and leaving here better than what we came here for.”

Nothing to lose: Michigan TE Colston Loveland was absolutely right when he spoke after U-M’s loss to Illinois: “Nothing to lose,” he said about the rest of the season. That’s exactly how it feels. Michigan is playing with house money as three-touchdown underdogs. Lose? OK, it’s expected. Bring on the mid-tier bowl and the Bryce Underwood era. But win? It might near-crumble the mighty empire in Columbus. The Wolverines have to play carefree, the defense has to wreak havoc and offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell has to call the best game of his life.

Prediction

There’s one team in America I would pick Michigan to lose to by three scores right now — and it’s Ohio State.

It will have been five years to the day since OSU beat U-M when the two sides take the field Saturday. Remember that dreamy, snowy day in Ann Arbor in 2021? It has gotten to the point they’re yearning for a scene like that in Columbus.

U-M can keep it tight early, especially with a dominating defense, but it’s OSU’s defense that is too overwhelming for a limited Michigan offense. A turnover in the second half dooms the upset hope, and the Buckeyes do all they can to run up the score late and cover the spread. The pick: Ohio State 34, U-M 13.