Mexico Open at Vidanta World Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Ludvig Åberg’s tee-to-green performance all week led him to his second PGA Tour victory at the Genesis Invitational on Sunday. Åberg, a pre-tournament price of 25-1, birdied the final hole to hold off a hard-charging Maverick McNealy, who shot 8-under 64 on Sunday but failed to birdie the par-5 18th, which would have secured a spot in a playoff. On last week’s “Long Shots” podcast, I mentioned that Åberg was the player not on my card who concerned me most as a possible winner, and that proved to be true. 

Patrick Rodgers, still seeking his first PGA Tour win, held the 54-hole lead but sputtered on the back nine and settled for a T-3 with Scottie Scheffler. Rounding out the top 5 were a host of players that finished T-5, including Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood and Denny McCarthy.

This week, the PGA Tour has a bit of a buffer event between the West Coast and Florida swings with the Mexico Open at Vidanta World. 

Akshay Bhatia (14-1) finished T-9 last week at Torrey Pines and was fourth here two years ago. 

Danish twins Rasmus (20-1) and Nicolai Højgaard (50-1) are seeking their first PGA Tour wins with Rasmus making his debut in Mexico while Nicolai is playing here for the third time. 

Kurt Kitayama (22-1) was the runner-up to Jon Rahm in the inaugural event here at Vidanta World in 2022.

Also at 22-1 are Sam Stevens, a runner-up four weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open, and Rodgers. 

At 28-1 are Taylor Moore with two top-10s in his last four starts, and Michael Kim, who was T-2 two weeks ago in Phoenix. 

Stephan Jaeger, third here last year, Aaron Rai and Ben Griffin are all priced at 30-1. 

Jake Knapp (40-1) is the defending champion, having earned his first PGA Tour victory here last year. 

The Event​

The Mexico Open at Vidanta World was first played as the Mexican Open in 1944 at the Club de Golf Chapultepec. It was an event on the Tour de las Américas between 2003 and 2006, co-sanctioned by the European Challenge Tour from 2004 to 2006. Then, it became a Nationwide Tour event in 2008. In 2013, the tournament was moved to March and became an official event for PGA Tour Latinoamérica. The tournament also moved to Club de Golf Mexico.

In 2022, the tournament became an official event on the PGA Tour, with a purse of $7.7 million ($8.5 million this year), and awarding 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner, plus the normal perks for winning a PGA Tour event, including a two-year tour exemption, and invitations to the Masters, PGA Championship, Players and Sentry Tournament of Champions. 

The Mexico Open marks the first event of the next Aon Swing 5 for players to qualify for the Arnold Palmer Invitational with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches being the other tournament that’s part of the swing. 

The Field

This week’s Mexico Open at Vidanta World features a 132-player field. However, only four of the Top 50 OWGR players are here this week as the event is sandwiched between a signature event in last week’s Genesis Invitational and the Cognizant Classic, which kicks off the Florida Swing. 

The Course​

Vidanta World is a golf destination in the town of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Set on the Pacific Coast, Grupo Vidanta, within its Vallarta resort complex, has several golf courses, the newest of which is the Norman Signature Course.

Designed by Greg Norman and opened in 2015, it is only accessible via the world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge. The course itself is set on the Ameca River, with a few holes running alongside. It is a resort course by nature, with the course seemingly flat with plenty of lakes and ponds forming hazards around the setup. The layout features panoramic views of the Sierra Madre mountain range. This design is surrounded by trees, native grasses, and jungle patches.

Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures out to 7,436 yards. It ranks as the seventh-longest course on the PGA Tour. It is an unusual track with five par-3s to go with four par-5s and only nine par-4s. While the par-3s are average in length, five of the par-4s are over 475 yards and three of the par-5s are close to or over 600 yards. 

The fairways are the fifth widest on tour at 41 yards on average. The Paspalum rough has been grown out to 2.5 inches to provide more of a penalty for missing fairways. 

The track is comprised of Paspalum throughout. Paspalum is a very common grass used on coastal courses that is known for being sticky. This means that drives will not roll out as much on the wide fairways and will stop much quicker on the greens. The 7,000-square-foot average greens (10th largest on tour) should run around an average speed of 11.5 on the stimpmeter.

Bunkers are few (55), but water hazards are plentiful with 12 water danger holes on the layout. 

The length of the course and the coastal winds are the primary defenses at Vidanta Vallarta and the winds, especially in the later afternoon, can cause higher scores. 

Correlated courses include TPC Craig Ranch, Coco Beach, Corales, TPC San Antonio, Congaree, and Plantation Course at Kapalua. Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open) and Corales (Corales Puntacana Championship) are both resort-style courses that also feature Paspalum throughout their respective layouts. TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open) is another Norman design. TPC Craig Ranch (AT&T Byron Nelson) and Congaree (2021 Congaree Championship) are also courses that favored bombers with wide fairways and non-penal rough. 

Mexico Open Recent History/Winners

2024: Jake Knapp (-19/265); 50-1

2023: Tony Finau (-24/260); 8-1

2022: Jon Rahm (-17/267); 5-1

Statistical Analysis

Jake Knapp led the field here last year for Strokes Gained: Approach on the way to his maiden PGA Tour victory. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Jackson Suber 1.358
2. Matthew Riedel 1.346
3. Andrew Putnam 0.993
4. Chan Kim 0.842
5. David Lipsky 0.836
6. Matt Wallace 0.791
7. Sam Ryder 0.745
8. Adam Svensson 0.711
9. Charley Hoffman 0.632
10. Alex Smalley 0.560
11. Max Meissner 0.496
12. Ryan Gerard 0.487
13. Victor Perez 0.461
14. Justin Lower 0.441
15. Michael Kim 0.436

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Aaron Rai 0.676
2. Kurt Kitayama 0.608
3. Henrik Norlander 0.571
4. Joel Dahmen 0.486
5. Patton Kizzire 0.458
6. Greyson Sigg 0.414
7. Mac Meissner 0.405
8. Nicolai Højgaard 0.359
9. Chan Kim 0.354
10. Adam Svensson 0.344
11. Ben Griffin 0.327
12. Kevin Yu 0.319
13. Michael Kim 0.311
14. Victor Perez 0.305

A plurality (around low 40%) of the approach shots into these greens will be from 200 yards and out. 

Average Proximity Toward the Hole — Approaches 200+ Yards (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Tim Widing 36′ 11″ (feet, inches from hole)
2. Danny Walker 38′ 4″
3. Max McGreevy 39′ 11″ 
4. Jackson Suber 40′ 6″
5. Thomas Rosenmuller 42′ 9″
6. Norman Xiong 43′ 1″
7. Brian Campbell 43′ 2″
8. Chan Kim 44′ 4″
9. Charley Hoffman 45′ 1″
10. Frankie Capan III 45′ 2″
11. Paul Peterson 45′ 2″
12. Sam Ryder 45′ 7″
13. Taylor Dickson 46′ 2″
14. Joel Dahmen 46′ 5″
15. Nick Hardy 46′ 6″

Average Proximity Toward the Hole — Approaches 200+ Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Kurt Kitayama 45′ 2″
2. Michael Kim 45′ 3″
3. Mac Meissner 45′ 5″
4. Chandler Phillips 45′ 6″
5. Sami Valimaki 46′ 1″
6. Thorbjorn Olesen 46′ 6″
7. Jake Knapp 46′ 8″
8. Patton Kizzire 46′ 11″
9. Nick Hardy 47′ 0″
10. Patrick Fishburn 47′ 4″
11. Matti Schmid 47′ 6″
12. Akshay Bhatia 47′ 10″
13. Joe Highsmith 48′ 0″
14. Aaron Rai 48′ 1″
15. Matt Wallace 48′ 1″

Vidanta Vallarta has some of the widest fairways on the PGA Tour, so you can ‘grip it and rip it’ here off the tee.

Driving Distance (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aldrich Potgieter 328.7
2. Tom Widing 321.7
3. Alejandro Tosti 320.9
4. Jeremy Paul 320.0
5. Trey Mullinax 319.4
6. Rasmus Højgaard 318.2
7. Kurt Kitayama 318.2
8. Ricky Castillo 317.2
9. Norman Xiong 316.8
10. Vincent Norrman 316.5
11. Kris Ventura 316.5
12. Rico Hoey 316.4
13. Kevin Roy 316.4
14. Michael Thorbjornsen 315.8
15. Matti Schmid 315.2

Driving Distance (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Chris Gotterup 316.2
2. Alejandro Tosti 315.6
3. Hayden Springer 311.1
4. Vincent Norrman 311.0
5. Ryan Fox 310.9
6. Stephan Jaeger 310.3
7. Jake Knapp 309.5
8. Rico Hoey 309.3
9. Nicolai Højgaard 309.1
10. Patrick Fishburn 308.8
11. Kurt Kitayama 308.7
12. Matti Schmid 308.2
13. Erik van Rooyen 308.2
14. Kevin Yu 308.0
15. Alex Smalley 307.5

Paspalum fairways are slower and have very little runout, so Carry Distance measures the distance from tee to the point of ground impact where a valid radar measurement is taken.

Carry Distance (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aldrich Potgieter 309.5
2. Michael Thorbjornsen 305.3
3. Rasmus Højgaard 304.3
4. Jesper Svensson 302.5
5. Kurt Kitayama 301.3
6. Trey Mullinax 300.7
7. Matt Wallace 299.0
8. Norman Xiong 298.9
9. Hayden Springer 297.0
10. Isaiah Salinda 296.7
11. Kris Ventura 296.5
12. Matti Schmid 296.0
13. Chris Gotterup 294.9
14. Vincent Norrman 294.5
15. Frankie Capan III 293.6

Carry Distance (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Chris Gotterup 305.6
2. Hayden Springer 300.7
3. Stephan Jaeger 299.4
4. Kurt Kitayama 298.1
5. Sam Stevens 297.7
6. Nicolai Højgaard 296.6
7. Matti Schmid 296.1
8. Rico Hoey 295.3
9. Vincent Norrman 294.9
10. Alejandro Tosti 294.7
11. Ryan Fox 294.6
12. Davis Riley 294.3
13. Kevin Yu 293.7
14. Taylor Moore 293.6

Vidanta Vallarta has proven not to be a complete pushover due to the Paspalum surface, which is not regularly featured on the PGA Tour, plus the winds can blow hard here. Birdies are not complete gimmes here. 

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Harry Hall 29.63%
2. Jesper Svensson 27.35
3. Trey Mullinax 27.22
4. Akshay Bhatia 26.04
5. Aaron Rai 25.79
6. Rasmus Højgaard 25.56
7. Ben Kohles 25.56
8. Frankie Capan III 25.40
9. Norman Xiong 25.40
10. Kevin Yu 25.40
11. Stephan Jaeger 25.31
12. Ricky Castillo 25.00
13. Joe Highsmith 25.00
14. Alex Smalley 25.00

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Harry Hall 25.77%
2. Jacob Bridgeman 25.27
3. Joe Highsmith 25.15
4. Michael Kim 24.97
5. Patton Kizzire 24.62
6. Hayden Springer 24.37
7. Rico Hoey 24.33
8. Chandler Phillips 24.33
9. Matti Schmid 24.28
10. Justin Lower 24.26
11. Charley Hoffman 24.20
12. Carson Young 24.20
13. Sam Ryder 24.19
14. Beau Hossler 24.16
15. Chan Kim 24.07
16. Sam Stevens 24.02

Selections

Alex Smalley (40-1, FanDuel)

Smalley finished sixth on debut here three years ago, and while he missed the cut the last two years, he has a proven record on Paspalum with a second and a sixth at the Corales Puntacana. 

He has finished 21st or better in three of four events this year, including two weeks ago at Phoenix where he was in the final group during Saturday’s final round. 

Nicolai Højgaard (50-1, DraftKings)

Højgaard has played here twice before, making the cut both times, and has success on Paspalum with a runner-up at the Corales Puntacana and a victory on the DP World Tour at Ras al Khaimah. He was also runner-up last year at the Farmers Insurance Open, so his game off the tee should fit here.

While only finishing 36th in Phoenix, he ranked seventh in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Jesper Svensson (66-1, BetMGM)

Perhaps Svensson will be inspired by fellow Swede Ludvig Åberg’s victory last weekend. They teamed up to win the 2018 European Amateur Team Championship and could potentially go back-to-back on the PGA Tour. 

Svensson’s victory at the Singapore Classic, by the way on Paspalum, and runner-up in Bahrain, also on Paspalum, last year led to him earning his PGA Tour card this season. 

He is a big hitter off the tee and already has some success in his young PGA Tour career with a top-10 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Aldrich Potgieter (70-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Potgieter won the British Amateur two years ago at age 17. 

The South African won early last season on the Korn Ferry Tour at the Bahamas Championship and also ended 2024 with some strong performances on the DP World Tour, finishing second in the Nedbank Challenge and eighth in the Australian PGA Championship.

He was 15th in the Farmers Insurance Open last month having led the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and Driving Distance. Potgieter is second and first on the PGA Tour this season for those categories. 

Chan Kim (80-1, Circa Sports)

Kim is a 10-time winner as a touring professional — eight times on the Japan Golf Tour and twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023. 

While not in the best form currently, he finished eighth here last year and was a T-6 at the Corales Puntacana, so he has a good record on the Paspalum.

Although the form has been off of late, he ranks fourth in this field for Approach and eightth for Proximity from 200+ Yards this season.

Kris Ventura (90-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Ventura, born to a Norwegian father and Mexican mother, was raised in Mexico until age 12, so aside from trying to earn his maiden PGA Tour victory, this event carries extra importance for him. 

He probably was not ready for the PGA Tour in the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons and went back to the Korn Ferry Tour to rebuild his career. 

Now he is back on the PGA Tour and posted his best career finish on the big tour last month with a T-4 at the Farmers Insurance Open, going under par for both weekend rounds in tough conditions. 

Ricky Castillo (110-1, FanDuel)

Castillo won on the Korn Ferry Tour last summer in his debut event on the circuit. Also on the Korn Ferry Tour, he finished fifth at the Panama Championship, seventh at the Astara Championship, 13th at the Argentina Open and fifth at the Chile Classic, all of which were overseas, so there is some correlating form to Vidanta. 

He showed a bit last month at the Farmers Insurance Open being on the first page of the leaderboard heading into the final round before falling to a T-21 finish. However, he was in the top 10 in the field for both Total Driving and Ball Striking. 

Hayden Springer (120-1, Circa Sports)

Springer got into this field via an open qualifier on Feb. 10. 

He was just 38th here last year but finished third for his following start in Puerto Rico, also held on Paspalum. 

Springer finished sixth last month in the Farmers Insurance Open courtesy of his big game off the tee, which should play well at Vidanta.

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