Andrey Rublev will begin his final-week push for the Nitto ATP Finals when he kicks off his Moselle Open campaign on Tuesday.

Rublev has three pathways to qualify for the year-end championship. He needs to either better Alex de Minaur’s result in Belgrade, win the Metz title, or reach the Metz final and have Casper Ruud lose his opening match. The ninth-ranked Russian had been in Turin position going into the Paris Masters, but an immediate exit followed by De Minaur’s quarterfinal run caused a change at No. 8 in the race.

Up first for Rublev following a first-round bye in Metz is a fifth meeting with Sonego. The head-to-head series is all tied up at 2-2, with Sonego leading 2-1 after scoring a five-set upset at the 2023 French Open. However, Rublev won their only previous indoor hard-court encounter via a 6-4, 6-4 decision in the 2020 Vienna final.

Sonego booked his spot in this matchup by beating lucky loser Gregoire Barrere 6-4, 7-5 on Monday. The 51st-ranked Italian is a disappointing 20-28 at the ATP level this year and is a horrendous 2-7 in his last nine main-draw matches since capturing the Winston-Salem title in August.

Given Sonego’s struggles and Rublev’s extremely high motivation level, this should be one-way traffic for the top seed.

Pick: Rublev in 2