The Mets are rolling the dice on Kodai Senga as their ace this upcoming season, but they’re well aware of the gamble they’re taking. There’s a reason the front office has been exploring other pitching options, engaging in trade discussions with the Padres for Michael King and Dylan Cease. Those talks aren’t just due diligence—they signal a level of concern about the rotation’s overall stability and Senga’s ability to stay on the mound.

The Injury Gamble

Senga was nothing short of electric in 2023, delivering a 2.98 ERA over 166.1 innings with 10.93 strikeouts per nine. That’s ace-level production, the kind of dominance that gives a team a legitimate chance to compete every five days. But 2024 was a lost season, as he logged just 5.1 innings due to injury. The Mets saw firsthand what happens when they don’t have enough pitching depth, which is why they’re sniffing around for reinforcements.

Relying on a pitcher with health concerns is always a risk, but the Mets don’t have many alternatives at the moment — let’s not pretend Frankie Montas or Clay Holmes are capable of being No. 1 pitchers.

They’re locked into Senga through at least 2027, with a club option for 2028, and at an average salary of $15 million per season, it’s not a contract they’ll want to walk away from unless absolutely necessary. The hope is that 2024 was just a blip rather than a sign of things to come.

The Need for Insurance

Even if Senga stays healthy, the Mets need another high-end arm to balance the rotation. That’s why they’ve been poking around the trade market, particularly in talks with the Padres. Between King and Cease, the Mets would be better off targeting Cease, given his durability and proven track record. King had the better numbers in 2024, but Cease has consistently thrown over 170 innings for three straight years, which is exactly what the Mets need.

If the Mets truly believe they can compete in 2025, they can’t afford to bet everything on Senga staying healthy. The front office seems to understand that, and whether it’s Cease or another established arm, they’ll likely need one more pitcher to solidify the rotation.