Men’s Olympics golf preview: Odds, predictions, best bets for winner and top three [2024]

Posted by Admin July 30, 2024 Golf

We are just a few days away from the highly anticipated Men’s Olympic Golf Tournament, set to take place at the esteemed Le Golf National in Paris, France. From August 1-4, 2024, the world’s top golfers will compete for the coveted gold, silver, and bronze medals. This event marks the third occurrence of golf in the Olympics since its reintroduction in 2016.

Le Golf National, a challenging course known for its links-inspired bunkers and strategic water hazards, previously hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, where Europe triumphed over the USA. The course’s demanding layout is expected to test even the most skilled golfers, ensuring a thrilling competition.

Partnering with Dimers, we’re excited to highlight the best value bets and sleeper picks that could significantly impact this prestigious tournament. Utilizing Dimers’ top projections and expert predictions, we provide comprehensive insights for the Open Championship, including the most likely winners, best bets to make, and the chances of some popular sleeper picks.

MORE: The best betting promo to use this week

Key players to watch

The United States boasts a formidable team featuring some of the highest-ranked golfers in the world. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who has had a historic 2024 season with victories in major tournaments like the Masters and The Players Championship, leads the squad. He is joined by World No. 3 and defending Olympic gold medalist Xander Schauffele, two-time major champion Collin Morikawa, and 2023 U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark.

Other notable contenders include Rory McIlroy of Ireland, who is ranked No. 2 globally, and Jon Rahm of Spain, who is always a strong competitor in major tournaments. Sweden’s Ludvig Åberg and Norway’s Viktor Hovland also enter the tournament with impressive rankings and recent performances.

Rory McIlroy, of Ireland, laughs on the sixth tee box during a practice round for the men’s golf event at the 2024 Summer Olympics, Tuesday, July 30, 2024, at Le Golf National in Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France.(AP Photo/Matt York)

Betting odds and predictions

Based on Dimers simulating the tournament 10,000 times, here are the top chances to win the men’s golf this week, with odds taken from Bet365:

Player	Win Probability (%)	Odds
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸	24.5	+420
Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸	19.7	+650
Rory McIlroy 🇮🇪	8.7	+850
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸	7.8	+1200
Jon Rahm 🇪🇸	4.5	+1100
Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪	3.8	+1500
Corey Conners 🇨🇦	3.8	+3500
Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧	2.6	+2200
Shane Lowry 🇮🇪	2.3	+2400
Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴	2.3	+2700
Hideki Matsuyama 🇯🇵	2.3	+3700
Alex Noren 🇸🇪	1.5	+3000
Wyndham Clark 🇺🇸	1.4	+7500
Joaquin Niemann 🇨🇱	1.3	+2400
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 🇿🇦	1.3	+8500

Best bets and sleepers for the men’s golf in Paris

Based on the above simulation results highlighted below, we have been able to determine where the betting value lies this week. Starting at the top with Scheffler and Schauffele, Dimers’ model also has found value on a player at odds of 85/1. Let’s dive in.

Scottie Scheffler at +420

Scottie Scheffler, the current World No. 1, has a win probability of 24.5%, significantly higher than his implied probability of 19.2%. With a 5.3% edge, Scheffler’s consistent performance this season, including victories at the Masters and The Players Championship, makes him a top contender in Paris.

Favorite to win, Scheffler. — Scottie Scheffler, of the United States, hits onto the 12th green during a practice round for the men’s golf event at the 2024 Summer Olympics, Monday, July 29, 2024, at Le Golf National in Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France.(AP Photo/George Walker IV)

Xander Schauffele at +650

Defending Olympic gold medalist Xander Schauffele comes in with a win probability of 19.7% and an implied probability of 13.3%, giving him an edge of 6.4%. Having won two majors this year, Schauffele’s form and experience make him a strong bet for another medal.

Collin Morikawa at +650

Collin Morikawa, a two-time major champion, has a win probability of 7.8% and an implied probability of 7.7%, resulting in a slight edge of 0.1%. Known for his precision and calm under pressure, Morikawa is a formidable competitor in any tournament.

Olympics Golf Odds. — Collin Morikawa, of the United States, walks across the 15th green during a practice round for the men’s golf event at the 2024 Summer Olympics, Monday, July 29, 2024, at Le Golf National in Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France.(AP Photo/Matt York)

Sleeper bets at odds of +3500, +7500, and +8500

Corey Conners at +3500: With a win probability of 3.8% and an implied probability of 2.8%, Conners has an edge of 1.0%, making him a valuable sleeper pick.
Wyndham Clark at +7500: Clark shows a win probability of 1.4% against an implied probability of 1.3%, giving him a slight edge of 0.1%.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +8500: Bezuidenhout has a win probability of 1.3% and an implied probability of 1.2%, providing an edge of 0.1%.

Conclusion

The Men’s Olympic Golf Tournament in Paris promises to be a thrilling event with top golfers from around the world competing for glory. With the insights provided by Dimers, you now have a comprehensive view of the best value bets and sleeper picks. Keep an eye on the favorites like Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, as well as potential surprises from sleeper picks like Corey Conners, Wyndham Clark, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.