Memphis basketball vs FAU: Prediction, scouting report and updates

Posted by author February 20, 2025 Basketball

Spread the love

Another AAC game, another precarious situation for Memphis basketball.

The 19th-ranked Tigers (21-5, 11-2) will face the streaking FAU Owls (15-10, 8-4) at FedExForum Sunday (1 p.m. CT, ESPN2). Coming off its third Quad 3 loss of the season, Penny Hardaway’s team is looking to finish off its push for the AAC championship and shore things up as March Madness approaches.

The Tigers are still in first place by one game over both North Texas and UAB, and currently own the tiebreaker over each. They are also 2.5 games ahead of fourth-place FAU. Sunday’s game will be the second meeting between the two; Memphis won Jan. 2 in Boca Raton, Florida, 90-62.

A potential 6-seed in the NCAA tournament is also still within the Tigers’ reach. Sunday’s game is another Quad 3 opportunity — unlikely to help the Tigers’ résumé if they win, and certain to hurt if they lose.

Here are three things to keep an eye on ahead of Sunday’s game.

Should Penny Hardaway switch up starting lineup?

Is it time to remove Colby Rogers from the starting five and replace him with PJ Carter?

The answer might not be as clear-cut as you think.

Rogers, by his own standard, is undeniably struggling. He is still shooting 38.2% from 3-point range — a top-12 mark in the AAC — but it is still short of his career mark of 42.9%. And he is trending in the wrong direction, shooting just 36.3% since conference play began.

Meanwhile, Carter’s emergence in recent weeks has been a pleasant surprise. The senior is shooting 45.3% at the 3-point line in AAC games and averaging 7.3 points per game (to Rogers’ 8.3).

Is that enough to warrant a switch, though? Carter has cooled off recently, connecting on 35% of his 3-point attempts in his past four games. In the four games before that, he was hitting 50%.

Memphis basketball’s free-throw woes

One of the Tigers’ issues in last week’s loss at Wichita State was their free-throw shooting.

Memphis was respectable, at best, hitting 15 of 20. The bigger issue is that the 75% showing was the team’s best single-game percentage in more than a month. The last time it shot better than 75% was Jan. 11 at East Carolina, when they made 78.3% (18-for-23).

What’s worse, the game against ECU is the only one in which Memphis has been better than 75% at the free-throw line since Dec. 21 (vs. Mississippi State).

FAU is likely to give the Tigers plenty of scoring opportunities. Entering Thursday, the Owls were averaging 17.6 personal fouls per game (237th in the nation), and their opponents totaled 18 or more free throws in 11 of the past 13 games.

In the first matchup with the Owls, Memphis was 14 of 19 at the free-throw line.

Among players with at least 40 attempts in AAC play, Tyrese Hunter leads the team at 78.6%. In non-conference games, PJ Haggerty shot 82.9% at the free-throw line. Since then, Haggerty has hit just 72%.

FAU basketball scouting report

Since losing to Memphis, the Owls were 8-3 entering Thursday’s game against Wichita State.

Forward Tre Carroll is a big reason why. One of the only holdovers from last season’s squad, Carroll was inserted into the starting lineup immediately following the Memphis loss. He has responded by averaging 13.1 points (on 48.5% shooting) and and 6.8 rebounds a game.

Baba Miller gave FAU 10 points and five rebounds against Memphis. Since then, he has scored fewer points than that just twice and has had at least that many rebounds every time out.

The Owls are still one of the country’s worst 3-point defenses, allowing teams to shoot 38.4% beyond the arc. Only six Division I teams are worse.

Memphis basketball score prediction vs. FAU

Memphis 83, FAU 74: Tyrese Hunter said he would make sure the Tigers respond well to the Wichita State loss. We believe him.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com, follow him @munzly on X, and sign up for the Memphis Basketball Insider text group.