It is always exciting when a Kentucky Derby winner returns to the races, not only because he is the winner of one of the world’s most famous horse races but also because that kind of celebrity often creates underlays.
So it goes with Mystik Dan in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park. I understand why he was made the 5-2 favorite against seven others going seven furlongs at the great race place, but I fully expect Bentornato to be the post-time favorite.
Put simply, Bentornato is the faster horse. Although Mystik Dan’s classic win certainly merits respect, seven furlongs against sprinters off a more than six-month layoff for a two-turn stakes horse shipping West is a tall order at a short price.
Bentornato might be a short price, too, though. If there were head-to-head wagering, I’d play him against Mystik Dan easily at similar prices. But there is not, and there is just no way Bentornato will be my fair odds of 3-1 even with Mystik Dan in here.
The likely value comes down to either Pilot Commander or Raging Torrent. The former has been more consistent, but the latter has better races. If bettors overbet both Mystik Dan and Bentornato then there can be opportunity to play both of these 3-year-olds. The Malibu begins an all-graded-stakes Pick 4, so we will get a good look at the board to play against underlays.
Raging Torrent has a similar run style as Bentornato, so I favor Pilot Commander slightly given his ability to press and pounce.
Stronghold is pretty much a complete toss for me at the expected price. He is slower than Mystik Dan and sports similar name recognition as the Santa Anita Derby winner and Kentucky Derby starter.
Pilot Commander is one of three Bob Baffert trainees in here. Imagination is interesting after showing improvement in his last two that puts him in the conversation with others at a bigger price. Winterfell is a wildcard returning west after three consecutive wins for Brittany Russell. I am concerned he will move backward after a big effort last out and decided that he is not for me here.
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